Ukraine and Eastern Europe

Poland has announced a swathe of new military aid to Ukraine as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Warsaw on Wednesday (5 April). Speaking in Warsaw, Zelensky announced that he and his Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda had agreed on the supply of armoured personnel carriers, self-propelled mortars and air defense systems. Additionally, President Duda announced that Poland will increase its donation of Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets to 14.  Poland had previously donated four, has prepared to transfer four more, and is currently preparing to transfer six further jets that "can be transferred quite soon", according to President Duda. This is on top of 13 MiG-29 fighter jets that had been previously pledged by Slovakia. During the same visit, Poland and Ukraine also signed a joint memorandum on the reconstruction of war-damaged areas of Ukraine as well as on the production of 125mm tank rounds. On the same day, the Czech Republic also pledged a package of military aid worth $30m, including equipment that was currently in storage and "not needed" for the country's defense, according to Czech Defense Minister Jana Černochová.

Writing on Telegram on Thursday (30 March), the Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar has said that Russian and Ukrainian losses in the east of Ukraine are as high as 10 to 1 on some days. This comes a few hours after the UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said on Sky News that the total Russian number of dead and injured since 24 February 2022 could be as high as 220,000. "The Russian forces have some really significant and deep systemic problems at the moment in their efforts," Wallace said, adding the Russian military was making "almost no progress whatsoever." Meanwhile, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces claimed on 29 March that Russia had lost approximately 172,340 troops in Ukraine since the beginning of its full-scale invasion, including 610 casualties just over the past day. Although these numbers are all but impossible to verify, reports do suggest very high casualty numbers, especially on the Russian side. In other news, Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov has said that Ukraine's counteroffensive involving recent deliveries of Western tanks may begin in April or May, but cautioned that a lot depends on weather conditions.

On Tuesday (21 March) the International Monetary Fund (IMF) located in Washington D.C. announced that it had reached a staff-level agreement with Ukraine for a 48-month financing package worth about $15.6 billion. The BBC also reports that it is the first loan that the organisation has granted to a country at war. In a statement, the IMF announced that the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) "aims to support the Ukrainian authorities anchor policies that sustain fiscal, external, price and financial stability, and support the ongoing gradual economic recovery, while promoting long-term growth in the context of post-war reconstruction and Ukraine’s path to EU accession". The agreement must however still be ratified by the IMF's board, and follows months of negotiations between IMF staff and Ukrainian authorities. The executive board of the IMF is expected to discuss approval in the coming weeks.

Russian Kalibr cruise missiles have been destroyed in an explosion in the Crimean city of Dzhankoi late on Monday (20 March). According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, they were being transported by rail at the time of the explosion. As has become standard, Ukrainian authorities confirmed the explosions in Dzhankoi, located in the north of the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula, but they did not claim an attack. "The [explosions] continue the process of Russia's demilitarisation and prepares the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea for de-occupation," the Ukrainian Defence Ministry said in a statement. Sergei Aksenov, the head of Moscow-installed proxies in Crimea, said that Russian air defense had been working in Dzhankoi, saying that the wreckage injured one person and damaged a household and a shop. Meanwhile Igor Ivin, the head of the occupying administration in Dzhankoi, reported a drone attack. The Kalibr missiles which have reportedly been destroyed in the explosion are designed to be launched from surface ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

The UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly is on a two-day visit to Moldova and Georgia to announce new funding to "boost regional resilience against Russian malign interference". In a press release from the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office issued on Thursday (16 March), the UK Government said they will "underline support for territorial integrity and sovereignty as part of work with Russia’s neighbours to deal with the threat on their doorstep.They added that funding will support governance reforms, fair elections, and anti-corruption programmes. First visiting the Moldovan capital of Chisinau on Thursday, Cleverly announced an extra £10 million (€11.4 million) to support economic and governance reforms in Moldova. This new pledge comes on top of £12 million already contributing to military reforms, and anti-corruption and transparency work in the country. Visiting the Georgian capital of Tbilisi one day later, on Friday (17 March), Cleverly announced a £500,000 package aimed at creating an environment for free and fair elections in 2024, protecting them from external interference.