South Caucasus

The Informal Summit of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), held on May 20-21, 2025, in Budapest, Hungary, marked a significant milestone in the organisation’s growing geopolitical influence. Hosted by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the summit brought together leaders from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Türkiye, and Uzbekistan, alongside observer states Hungary, Turkmenistan, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. This gathering, the first OTS summit hosted by an observer state, underscored Hungary’s role as a bridge between the Turkic world and Europe, reflecting the theme “Meeting Point of East and West.”

Transparency International has denounced censorship conducted by the ruling party of Georgia including attempts to intimidate critical media and suppress independent journalism in Georgia and called  for international support to defend Georgian democracy and media freedom. In a statement released on 4th June, Transparency International said independent media in Georgia must be able to ask critical questions and demand answers from the government and noted that the legal intimidation of critical broadcasters is in direct contradiction to both the Georgian Constitution and the country’s international obligations.

The resignation of three key figures in the Georgian leadership, who had direct access to Georgia’s de facto leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili, leaves Prime Minister Irakli Kobahidze vulnerable and exposed. The Georgian political crises that started with the elections held in October 2024 which the opposition, and most of the world, considered flawed, is now in its eight month. In the meantime a large number of opposition activists and leaders have been jailed. Kobahidze and his government believed that the opposition efforts will fizzle out. They have not. Now Kobahidze and his inner circle look increasingly tired and embattled. Georgia has been in limbo for months. Young people are getting worried about their future. The crises is entering a new phase.

On May 20–21, 2025, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Yerevan marked a significant moment in the evolving dynamics of Armenia–Russia relations, signaling Moscow’s intent to stabilize and reinforce ties with its long-standing ally in the South Caucasus. Set against the backdrop of deteriorating Russia–Azerbaijan relations following the tragic crash of an Azerbaijani airliner plane on December 25, 2024, the visit highlighted Russia’s delicate balancing act in a region where its influence is increasingly contested. Lavrov’s talks with Armenian leaders focused on reaffirming bilateral commitments within the frameworks of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

Following the parliamentary elections of October 2024, the ruling Georgian Dream party created favourable conditions for the growth of Russian influence in the region according to the annual report of the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) that has just been presented to the US Congress. The report says Moscow is almost certainly seeking to bring Georgia back into its sphere of influence and has already made progress through internal political developments in the country.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told the Yerevan Dialogue that “sustainable and lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not only possible, but within reach” as he delivered an update on the current status of peace talks to participants of the 2nd annual forum on Monday. Negotiations over a draft agreement were completed in March, and Armenia and Azerbaijan indicated their willingness to sign it.