South Caucasus

The nexus between “climate change, peace and security” has been at the centre of attention for many years. It is not only about how climate change is exacerbating environmental conditions, increasing the prospects for conflict on owning and sharing resources, and accentuating already existing problems, such as for example water shortage in the Sahel, but it is also about how conflicts are contributing directly to a worsening environmental situation, increasing the gravity of climate change. With major climatic incidents now a regular occurrence across the world, and from which no one is spared, minds have recently become more focused. At COP28 in Dubai in December 2023, the UAE took the initiative to bring the discussion within a COP context. Here again, there was no consensus, with Russia, China and some of the countries in the Global South resisting, But the UAE persisted, and found a way through which they could do three things: insert the theme in the proceedings of COP28; establish a dedicated day during the COP summit where the focus was peace, and push for the adoption, even if not by consensus of the “COP28 declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace“. This was a big achievement, but only a start. It is clear that what was achieved in Dubai needs to be consolidated and developed in Baku in November 2024. The Azerbaijan government, host of COP29 was initially reluctant to go too far in the inclusion of the peace agenda in COP29 but they have now warmed up to the idea. Over the weekend, the Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor, Hikmet Haciyev, spoke about the possibility of having a COP truce during the Baku summit. There are more than a hundred ongoing armed conflicts in the world. Securing a cease-fire in even one of them would be positive and welcome, but may be very difficult to achieve. A COP29 cease-fire may be an aspiration, but the focus should be on more tangible objectives, and particularly on building on what has been already achieved in COP28 This can include: Having the theme Climate Change, Peace and Security as a theme of COP29; More specifically in Baku the focus should be on water scarcity; food insecurity and landmine contamination and the linkage between conflict and environmental degradation • Having a dedicated day of peace in the COP29 programme, with the participation of the UN Secretary-General, and a gathering of Nobel Peace Price winners • Adopting a new declaration, building on the one agreed in Dubai in November, which would also have the possibility of signatories presenting packages that could be practical tools for moving forward some of the ideas contained in it. All this is doable. There are then other issues on which work needs to be done, but which are also achievable. Will COP29 be historic also because it would be the first time an Armenian leader visits Baku since the long conflict of the last three decades? Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan does not shy away from difficult decisions. He can very well see the value of this gesture, particularly since in Baku he will not only be welcomed by the leader of Azerbaijan, but by the biggest gathering of world leaders ever to gather in the South Caucasus. President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan can co-host a special event at the dedicated Peace Day. Imagine the significance of that! All the ingredients exist to make COP29 in Baku a historic summit of peace and it should not be missed. But there is much work to be done yet, and the negativity of the malcontents needs to be overcome.

In that context, is it even possible to consider Armenia purchasing gas from Azerbaijan? Unless Yerevan can cancel or renegotiate its existing obligations, that remains unknown. However, that is not to say there aren’t other opportunities. Given the finite nature of fossil fuels, and a gradual switch to renewables anyway, perhaps alternative energy sources offer more potential. Armenia already exports electricity to Georgia and that could be expanded to include Turkiye and through the Black Sea Submarine Cable too – but likely only if normalisation continues. "Following an unprecedented joint statement by Yerevan and Baku last December, in which Armenia green lit Azerbaijan hosting the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP) later this year, the event offers the opportunity to take this conversation further. At the weekend, Azerbaijani Presidential Advisor Hikmet Hajiyev had already put the focus on making the important global event “an engine for peace by finding common ground […].” As the world continues to grapple with the problem of climate change and securing new sources of energy for the future, it is vital that Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia work together as part of a larger solution. The signs are already there", wites Onnik James Krikorian in this op-ed for commonspace.eu

On May 1, the Georgian government passed through Parliament the controversial “Foreign Agents Law” in its second reading with 83 votes in favor and 23 against, despite strong opposition from international partners, large segments of Georgian society and opposition MPs and politicians. Outside parliament massive public protests saw clashes between police and protestors President of Georgia Salome Zurabishvili addressed the protesters in the evening of May 1, when the situation on Chitadze Street, by the gate of the parliament, became tense as several youths tried to break through the closed gates into the yard of the parliament. She said she stands by the protesters’ side. She called the rallies “extraordinary” saying that the whole world is watching Georgians demonstrate the attitude, determination, and perseverance. She said these qualities are important in order to win in the long term struggle, the final stage of which will be the Parliamentary elections, which “will show that Georgia will never be Russia.” Salome Zurabishvili addressed the youth “with flame in their hearts” as she called them, saying that “some things are not necessary” and appealed “to leave along the gates of the Parliament” saying that “nothing happens there”. Noting that “our struggle” is no longer about the Foreign Agents Law”, she said that the longer-term struggle is about the elections” and about “all the laws that this government has passed that distance us from the EU”. That is the goal, she stressed. Noting that it’s Holy Week, she appealed for peaceful protests and to avoid provoking violence, saying: “We will show the world what Georgia and its youth can do.”

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has expressed concern about the situation in the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, amid ongoing anti-government protests against a new foreign influence law, which critics fear could be used to limit press freedoms. The protests, which have attracted international attention, highlight growing discontent in the country and calls for a closer alignment with European ideals.

Riot police in Georgia have fired tear gas and water cannon to disperse crowds protesting against a bill seen by the opposition as targeting media freedoms and narrowing the space for the work of civil society. Demonstrators threw eggs and bottles at the police outside the parliament in the capital, Tbilisi. The crowds retreated, but clashes continued on the main Rustaveli Avenue late on Tuesday. A number of people were reportedly injured and detained. Georgia's IPN news agency says that Levan Khabeishvili, chairman of the main opposition party United National Movement, was severely beaten and taken to hospital. He was later shown in a hospital bed where he is said to have a broken nose. Reuters news agency says that eyewitnesses saw some police officers physically attack protesters. On 17 April, MPs gave their initial backing to the "foreign agent" bill. The bill is now going through its last stages in parliament. Under the bill proposed by the ruling Georgian Dream party, non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and independent media that receive more than 20% of their funding from foreign donors would have to register as organisations "bearing the interests of a foreign power". They would also be monitored by Georgia's justice ministry and could be forced to share sensitive information - or face hefty fines of up to 25,000 Georgian lari ($9,400). The passing of the bill in its first reading triggered a series of street protests. Opponents of the bill demand that the government scrap it, arguing that it is inspired by authoritarian legislation that neighbouring Russia uses to crush dissent.

Those who know their political geography will tell you that there are five countries in Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. But in the last two years, a new kid has appeared on the block. Azerbaijan is not usually described as a Central Asian country: Caucasus or Caspian are more likely labels, but recently one could spot Azerbaijan in key summits and meetings of the Central Asian republics, including those with other blocs, such as the Gulf Co-operation Council. Two things are driving this process.

Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder and honorary chairman of the Georgian Dream party, addressed a large crowd of supporters in Georgia's capital Tbilisi on Monday, 29 April as the standoff between Government and opposition continues. In a fiery speech, considered as the most radical of his political career, Ivanishvili lambasted the US and NATO, accusing them of seeing Georgia only as cannon fodder. He slammed the country's opposition and civil society and promised a heavy handed approach towards the opposition following next October elections. The mask that had hid the true Ivanishvili for the last twelve years finally fell. Ivanishvili accused NGOs of trying to organise a revolution and threatened all those who oppose him. He said "I know many of our supporters were dissatisfied that we did not punish the United National Movement enough. Even though many of their leaders spent time in prison and their leader [Saakashvili] is still in prison, it is true that we did not pass the UNM in a tribunal as such, did not condemn it as a treasonous, criminal entity that it is. Why did not we do it? Because we were under tremendous pressure. In fact, UNM was appointed the opposition [in 2012] just like they were appointed as government [in 2003] by the global party of war. The Georgian people should decide the country’s fate. After the [victory in] elections, we will issue a strict political and legal condemnation to the collective UNM [meaning NGOs and political opponents]; it will get the due punishment it deserves. They will pay for all the crimes against the Georgian people."