South Caucasus

The agreements reached in the US-mediated summit of the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in Washington on August 8 are poised to fundamentally reshape the region's future. Particularly, the deal concerning the Zangezur corridor – rebranded as the “Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) – holds significant geopolitical importance. If implemented, the TRIPP agreement would deal a severe blow to the regional standing of Russia and Iran. More importantly, it would pave the way for a strategic U.S. presence in this critical geography. This outcome represents a success that few would have predicted for the United States, especially for the Trump administration, given the region's notoriously complex and volatile geopolitics.

Next year’s parliamentary elections in Armenia will not focus on the economy or other domestic issues, but rather on the country’s place in the surrounding region and relations with its neighbours. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, down but not out following military defeat and political upheaval, has staked his future on reaching what would prove to be a historic peace agreement with Azerbaijan. But with public trust at an all-time low, disillusionment among the electorate could make this the most unpredictable vote since independence was declared in 1991. Armenia will hold parliamentary elections on 7 June 2026, its first regularly scheduled national vote since April 2017. In this analysis for commonspace.eu, Onnik James Krikorian argues that "ten months before the vote, the outcome still remains difficult to predict. Though it still seems most likely that the incumbent will win, a great deal will also be determined during the official campaign period itself, and new developments on the ground. If peace with Azerbaijan is finally within reach, and there are signs that this is the case, it will be difficult for voters to reject stability instead of insecurity and the further risk of war. Ultimately, the 2026 election will determine not just who governs Armenia, but whether the country can finally emerge from decades of conflict and semi-regional isolation, or if it is destined to remain trapped by it." He adds, "that might prove enough to sway even reluctant support for Pashinian at the ballot box. The opposition has still yet to offer any viable alternative – or even one at all."

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit, held on August 31–September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, China, brought together leaders of the 10 member states, as well as representatives from over 20 countries and 10 international organisations. The summit resulted in the adoption of the Tianjin Declaration and the SCO Development Strategy until 2035, outlining key directions for cooperation and security. Armenia officially announced its intention to join the SCO on July 3, 2025, emphasising its commitment to the organisation’s core principles, territorial integrity, non-use of force, and inviolability of borders. Azerbaijan submitted its application later, in August. Currently, the process of admitting Armenia and Azerbaijan to the SCO is in the preliminary co-ordination stage, involving the attainment of partner status with the prospect of transitioning to full membership in the future.

LINKS Europe is pleased to announce the launch of the campaign Landmine Free South Caucasus 2025. This will be the fourth Landmine Free South Caucasus campaign that LINKS Europe is co-ordinating since 2019, and like previous editions, the campaign will be regional, involving Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, and will have five official languages: Armenian, Azerbaijani, Georgian, Russian and English. LINKS Europe will work with stakeholders in the three countries in the delivery of the campaign. The campaign will run from 1 September to 15 December. The first part, from 1 September to 15 November, will be largely informative, using media and social media, whilst engaging with decision makers and civil society in the three countries. In the second part of the campaign, from 15 November to 15 December, the focus this year will be on the human and economic costs of landmine contamination. The Campaign will again mark 30 November as the Day of Solidarity with the victims of landmines and other remnants of war in the South Caucasus. A spokesperson for LINKS Europe said this year the campaign takes special significance following the progress in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Process and the historic meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders, together with the US president in the White House on 8 August. For six years, between 2018-2024, LINKS Europe worked on landmine issues in a very difficult political context, but always insisted that a regional approach was necessary for successful mine action in the South Caucasus. It consistently held that mine action could serve as a confidence-building measure in the region. Landmine Free South Caucasus 2025 will again push these ideas, but the context has changed, and the chance of success is now higher.

The OSCE Minsk Group has been disbanded. The decision was taken by the OSCE Permanent Council at its meeting in Vienna on Monday, 1 September. Following the adoption of this decision, the OSCE will take steps to implement the closure of the Minsk Process and its related structures. Only administrative functions, such as the handover of assets and equipment, will continue until the process is completed no later than 1 December 2025. The OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, Foreign Minister of Finland Elina Valtonen, and OSCE Secretary General Feridun H. Sinirlioğlu welcome the adoption of a Ministerial Council decision closing the Minsk process and related structures following a Joint Appeal from Armenia and Azerbaijan.