South Caucasus

Azerbaijan's destruction by force of the self-declared Nagorno Karabakh Republic is seen by some as removing one of the key obstacles in the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, that will resume in the next days in Granada, Spain. Others however see the elimination of the Karabakh factor as opening the way for Azerbaijan to make even more demands on Armenia, writes Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. "It is challenging to assess whether peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is within reach. However, one thing is clear: the second humiliation of Armenia within three years has already triggered significant backlash among Armenians. Many are still in shock, which is why Yerevan witnessed only small protests recently. However, many Armenians are fed up with permanent losses, and there is a growing feeling that Armenia, in the long–term perspective, should become stronger to reclaim its position in the region. In the current environment, any attack of Azerbaijan against Armenia, regardless of pretexts or reasons, will only strengthen this feeling among Armenians and will be a direct path to long-term instability and conflicts in the South Caucasus", he argues.

The dramatic events of the last days in Karabakh brought to a climax decades of political crisis, confrontation and war that, since 1989, has resulted in tens of thousands of people dead, even more, injured, and hundreds of thousands of refugees and displaced people. Armenians and Azerbaijanis fought a war in the early 1990s that resulted in an Armenian victory, and another one in 2020, that resulted in an Armenian defeat. In between, and since, there were many skirmishes, and untold animosity that expressed itself in all sorts of ways. The Karabakh conflict has destabilised the entire South Caucasus region, preventing regional cooperation, frustrating economic development and exposing the region to the manipulation of outside forces. On 19 September, Azerbaijan appeared to finally put an end to the problem through a short but sharp military operation that essentially wiped out the military capability of the Karabakh Armenians. Yet again hundreds died on both sides, and the world is now watching the latest wave of South Caucasus refugees on the move, as almost the entire Armenian population of Karabakh seeks refugee in Armenia. Many consider that the problem has not been resolved – it has simply changed. To understand why events unfolded as they did, and why efforts over decades by the world’s leading countries and statesmen failed to find a solution to this problem it is essential to understand that Karabakh is not one issue, but three: each with its own narrative, and quite persuasive justification. The big question however remains, will there be Armenians living in Karabakh going forward, and under what conditions? Conditions need to be created for Karabakh to become a multi-ethnic community within Azerbaijan. Its specific Armenian linguistic and cultural characteristics should be preserved. All those displaced since 1989 should have a right to return to build together this community. The onus now depends on Azerbaijan to create the right conditions for this to happen, and they will be well-advised to work with credible international partners in doing so. Karabakh is never going to be peaceful, and it is never going to be complete, until its Armenian and Azerbaijani populations are back and living together in peace and prosperity.

The Armenian exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh continued in the last twenty-four hours, with the numbers of those that have moved to Armenia reaching 68,386 by 1200 on Thursday (28 September), according to Armenian government sources. Speaking at a government meeting in Yerevan, Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan said that soon there will be no Armenians living in Karabakh and called this ethnic cleansing. In the meantime, the self-styled president of the self-declared Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Samvel Shahramanyan, has issued a decree declaring that the Republic and all its institutions will be dissolved on 1 January 2024. The text of the decree, as published on Armenpress, states: "given the grave military-political situation and pursuant to ensuring the physical security and essential interests of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh as a priority, taking into consideration the agreement reached with Azerbaijan mediated by the Russian peacekeeping forces command that the free, voluntary and unimpeded passage of the NK residents with their property and vehicles through Lachin Corridor will be taken into consideration.” All ministries and other state agencies and organizations will be disbanded by January 1, 2024 and the Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) Republic ceases to exist,” reads the order. “The population of Nagorno-Karabakh, including the population now outside the republic, after this order takes effect, becomes acquainted with the terms of reintegration presented by Azerbaijan with the purpose of making an individual decision in the future on the opportunity to stay (return) in/to NK”.

Thousands of ethnic Armenians have left the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in the last days, following the short Azerbaijani military operation on 19 September, and the decision of the de facto authorities of the territory to acquiesce to the Azerbaijani demands to disarm. Official Armenian sources said that by Monday (26 September) at 20.00 hours, 28,120 persons had crossed over to the territory of the Republic of Armenia. Of these 3,253 were provided with temporary accommodation - the rest saying that they were making their own arrangements. The painful exodus was further exacerbated on Sunday evening with an incident at a petrol station just outside Stepanakert, the administrative capital of Karabakh, where many were waiting to fill their cars with petrol for the journey to Armenia. It resulted in an explosion that killed 68 persons and left many others badly burnt. The international community is currently mobilising humanitarian aid for the incoming refugees, as well as for those remaining in Karabakh. The new situation has also resulted in unprecedented co-operation between the Azerbaijani authorities and the de facto Armenian authorities in Karabakh. Following the incident at the petrol station 15 Fire Engines of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Emergency Situations travelled to Stepanakert to help put out the fire. Baku also sent emergency medical supplies. Observers think that these steps by Baku, and others including the provision of fuel and food supplies, may help calm fears amongst the Armenian community of Karabakh of Baku's intentions. But given the long history of conflict and animosity, and the thousands killed on both sides over the last four decades, restoring trust will take a very long time. In the meantime, the exodus of Armenians from Karabakh is likely to continue.

The European Union on Monday (26 September) hosted high level diplomatic discussions in Brussels between senior officials from Armenia and Azerbaijan. The main objective of the meeting was to prepare for a summit between Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliyev and Armenian prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, with the participation of the president of the European Union Charles Michel, the president of France Emanuel Macron, and the Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz. Although the meeting has not been formally confirmed it is now considered very likely to happen in Granada next week. President Michel joined the participants for a brief exchange. A statement from Brussels said, "The EU invited participants to exchange views on the current situation on the ground and various efforts aimed at addressing the urgent needs of the local population. The European Union closely follows all these developments and has been engaged at the highest level to help alleviate the impact of hostilities on civilians. The EU reiterated in this context its position on Azerbaijan’s military operation last week. Hikmet Hajiyev outlined Azerbaijan’s plans to provide humanitarian assistance and security to the local population. The EU stressed the need for transparency and access for international humanitarian and human rights actors and for more detail on Baku’s vision for Karabakh Armenians’ future in Azerbaijan. The EU is providing assistance to Karabakh Armenians. The meeting also allowed for intense exchanges between participants on the relevance of a possible meeting of the leaders in the framework of the Third EPC Summit scheduled for 5 October 2023 in Granada. The participants took note of the shared interest of Armenia and Azerbaijan to make use of the possible meeting in Granada to continue their normalisation efforts. In this regard, Armen Grigoryan and Hikmet Hajiyev engaged in talks on possible concrete steps to advance the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process in the upcoming possible meeting, such as those with regard to border delimitation, security, connectivity, humanitarian issues, and the broader peace treaty. Concrete action and decisive compromise solutions are needed on all tracks of the normalisation process. The EU believes that the possible meeting in Granada should be used by both Yerevan and Baku to reiterate publicly their commitment to each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty in line with agreements reached previously in Prague and Brussels. "

Senior officials of Armenia and Azerbaijan are in Brussels this week to prepare for a leaders summit, scheduled to be held in Granada, Spain on 5 October. Armenian National Security Council Secretary, Armen Grigorian, and Azerbaijani Presidential Foreign Policy Assistant, Hikmet Haciyev will meet with representatives from the EU, France and Germany to prepare for the summit. This was announced simultaneously in Baku and Yerevan immediately after the visit to the region of the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Toivo Klaar on Friday and Saturday. Such meetings between Haciyev and Grigorian have taken place in the past, but usually without much publicity. The announcement comes amongst increased speculation that Armenia and Azerbaijan are close to agreeing the text of a peace agreement between them and that this could be signed before the end of the year, a pre-document, may even be signed in Granada. This development comes despite the fact that recent weeks have seen a high level of tension in the region, which culminated on Tuesday (19 September) in a 24 hours Azerbaijani military operation which re-asserted Azerbaijani control over Nagorno-Karabakh - even whilst leaving hundreds of casualties and thousands of refugees. The operation led to the Armenians of Karabakh agreeing to disarm, and the two sides are now holding talks for the eventual reintegration of the territory within the Azerbaijani state. The process has been mediated by the command of the Russian military contingent in Karabakh. commonspace.eu political editor says that a picture is emerging, whereby Russia is taking the leading role in the mediation between Baku and the Karabakh Armenians, and with supervising any agreement between them through the Russian military contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh, which numbers around 2000 personnel. The EU, through the wider format involving both the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the leaders of France and Germany, can now focus on Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, and the eventual signing of a peace agreement. This arrangement looks very neat on paper, but of course there are many cross cutting issues. How the two processes will evolve in parallel yet in harmony is yet to be seen.

After a long stand-off, a one day war which left hundreds of casualties, and a series of long overdue face to face talks, the Government of Azerbaijan has agreed terms with the leaders of the Armenian community of Nagorno-Karabakh which will see Azerbaijan assuming back full control of the territory after a failed secessionist movement which lasted more than three decades. The leadership of the Armenian community of Nagorno-Karabakh has now published the points agreed by the two sides at their meeting on Thursday in an official notice released by the Artsakh Information Centre. It contains six points, which the Centre says are already being implemented, including the disarmament and eventual disbanding of the armed formations of the self-declared Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. Azerbaijani troops have now consolidated their control over outlaying villages and settlements around the administrative capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, Stepanakert, but have not entered the town itself. It seems they will not, yet. In an interview with the Azerbaijani Service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty,  Farid Shafiyev, the head of AIR Centre – an Azerbaijani government think tank - said that ”until 2025, the Azerbaijani military and police will not be in Khankendi [Stepanakert],".   commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that Azerbaijan is de facto in control of Nagorno-Karabakh, but it understands it needs to thread carefully amidst widespread warnings against ethnic cleansing. Baku needs to re-assert control over the territory whilst creating enough conditions for the Armenian population to stay and not depart en masse. The first task is to deal with the immediate aftermaths of fighting of the last days, namely bury the dead, provide for the wounded and managing the problem of displaced persons. There are also issues related to alleviating the suffering of the civilian population who had been under a blockade for a number of months. Then the more difficult task of trying to find a right political model for Karabakh will start. The last days have seen the end of an era in Karabakh, another one is about to start.