Russia

Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a "limited tactical withdrawal" from Bakhmut, said the Institute for the Study of War in its latest update of the Russia-Ukraine war on Monday (6 March). They did also caution, however, that it is too early to tell if Ukraine is considering a complete withdrawal from the city. Quoting a Ukrainian serviceman, the ISW also reported that, as of 4 March, Russian forces had not yet crossed the Bakhmuta River into central Bakhmut. Russian military bloggers have also claimed the Wagner Group had pushed Ukrainian positions back to central Bakhmut, according to the ISW. Amid the increased fighting along the frontline in eastern Ukraine, the UK Ministry of Defence reported in its intelligence update on 6 March that Russia "has continued to respond to heavy armoured vehicle losses by deploying 60-year-old T-62 main battle tanks".

Yesterday, on Thursday (2 March) the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for the first time since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, over one year ago. Taking place in the Indian capital New Delhi, sources report that the two spoke "on the move" for only ten minutes, and apparently not much resulted from it. Blinken reiterated US support for Ukraine, and pressed the Kremlin to reverse their decision to pull out of the 2010 START treaty on nuclear proliferation. In remarks released after his address at the closed-door meeting of foreign ministers, Antony Blinken said, "we must continue to call on Russia to end its war of aggression and withdraw from Ukraine for the sake of international peace and economic stability". According to reports from the American side, Blinken also brought up the case of the former American soldier Paul Whelan, who in 2020 was sentenced to 16 years hard labour after being convicted of spying by Russian authorities.

In its latest intelligence briefing on the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Thursday (2 March), the UK Ministry of Defence has suggested that warmer weather around Bakhmut - the eastern Ukrainian town with a pre-war population of 70,000 that Russia has been trying to capture for months - may help the Ukrainians in their defence. In the briefing, the UK Ministry of Defence wrote, "as Ukrainian forces continue their defence of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, rising temperatures are now creating the muddy conditions [...] limiting cross country movement (CCM)." "Poor CCM typically provides some military advantage to defending forces," the briefing adds. The UK Ministry of Defence also note that daytime temperatures around Bakhmut have risen to above freezing, and warmer than average forecasts over the next weeks will also likely decrease CCM. "It is almost certain that by late-March, CCM will be at its worst following the final thaw. This will add further friction to ground operations and hamper the off-road movement of heavier armoured vehicles, especially over churned-up ground in the Bakhmut sector."

The Ukrainian military repelled 60 Russian attacks in five areas over the past 24 hours in northeastern and eastern Ukraine, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported in its morning update on Tuesday (28 February). Ukraine repelled the attacks near Kupyansk in eastern Kharkiv Oblast as well as Lyman, Bakhmut, Adviika, and Shakhtarsk in Donetsk Oblast, where Russia is concentrating its main offensive efforts, according to the General Staff. Russian troops reportedly carried out eight missile attacks, 32 air strikes, and launched more than 85 attacks using multiple launch rocket systems  between 27 and 28 February, the statement said. Meanwhile, in his daily address on the evening of 27 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the situation in the Bakhmut direction is "getting more and more difficult". He added that Russia "is constantly destroying everything that can be used to protect our positions, to gain a foothold and ensure defense". The commander of Ukraine's ground forces, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, has said the situation around Bakhmut is "extremely tense". Russia has been trying to take the medium-sized industrial town with a pre-war population of roughly 70,000 for over six months, and has long been a location where the front line has been the most active. 

One year has passed since Vladimir Putin’s Russia attacked Ukraine, plunging Europe into a war that has already claimed the lives of tens of thousands, and devastated a whole country. Putin expected Ukraine to fall into his lap within hours. It didn’t. It resisted heroically. He also expected Europe, the United States and the rest of the international community to give a muddled response, and for things to be back to business as usual within weeks. It did not happen. The response of Europe, the United States and similarly minded countries was fast, resolute and robust. Having grossly miscalculated, Putin had two choices: to admit his mistake and recalibrate, or, to persist, and to keep digging despite the fact that he was clearly in a hole. Most countries have internal corrective systems that in such situations keep leaders in check. In Russia no such systems exist. So Putin keeps digging himself into a hole by threatening to escalate. What has been clear from day one, is that this is not simply Ukraine’s war. Countries can have disputes, and sometimes they also go to war with each other. Usually the world stands by and tries to bring the belligerents to the negotiating table and to restore peace.

On 24 February 2022, in the town of Kostyantynivka in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk oblast, Anastasiia woke up at 4am to the sound of explosions. Not in her town, but about 30km away. When the first explosion hit she did not understand what was going on, but once the second explosion hit she rushed to her parents’ room and told them that the war had started. Originally conceived as a protest, Samantha Smith’s Group has evolved into a herculean effort run by a tight-knit, principled and dedicated group of individuals committed to making a very genuine difference to Ukrainians whose lives have been turned upside down by Russia’s invasion of their country. However, although the teachers come from all over the world, from Canada to New Zealand, from the UK to Costa Rica, as well as Ukraine and Belarus, the majority of volunteers teaching English to Ukrainians in Samantha Smith’s Group are actually from Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has delivered long-delayed State of the Nation speech on Tuesday (21 February), in which he has announced that Russia will withdraw from the New Start arms reduction treaty with the US. Speaking for nearly two hours, the Russian President repeated many arguments with which observers have become all too familiar over the previous months and years, especially since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February last year. Throughout his address, Putin continued to blame Ukraine and the West for the war, despite it being Moscow that launched a full-scale invasion that is believed to have had capturing Kyiv within three days as one of its main goals. He again characterised the Ukrainian government as a "neo-Nazi regime", a claim which he has often repeated to justify his "special military operation". One of the biggest announcements coming from his speech was that Russia would pull out of the New Start strategic arms reduction treaty with the US, adding that Russia needs to be ready to test nuclear weapons if the US does so first.