Global

US President Donald Trump said on Monday (16 June) that a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran has been "all signed" electronically, and the Strait of Hormuz will be “completely open” by Friday (19 June). US officials said the agreement was signed by Trump, US Vice President JD Vance and main Iranian negotiator and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The details of MoU have yet to made fully public, but some details have been selectively leaked. The MoU, brokered in significant part by Pakistan and set to be formally signed in Switzerland on Friday, includes a cessation of hostilities in Lebanon, an end to Iranian restrictions on the Strait, a reduction of US military assets from the region, and some relief of sanctions and frozen Iranian assets. Iran's nuclear program (the original justification of the war) is deferred to be decided during the following 60-day period, though the memorandum secured Iran's reaffirmation of its commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The regional welcome was broad and immediate, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, and Türkiye all issuing statements of relief. Yet that relief was calibrated. Gulf capitals had spent three and a half months watching Washington threaten a partner over a waterway, contemplate occupying an island within artillery range of the Iranian mainland, and preside over what they privately called the worst global energy crisis in decades, all while urging restraint behind closed doors. In truth, the memorandum of understanding resolves the immediate crisis. Whether it resolves the deeper question of what kind of security guarantor Washington intends to be is another matter entirely, and the quiet work of building alternative architecture across the region suggests that Gulf capitals are not simply waiting around for the answer. (Read the full briefing by clicking on the image above)