Global

The war of the United States and Israel against Iran has entered its third week. Not a very long time some would say, but enough already to have changed the Middle East, not in any good way. As the BBC veteran Security Correspondent, Frank Gardner, put it, the war has put a shadow over the whole region. Nobody, except for Benyamin Netanyahu, wanted this war, not even Donald Trump. The war, unless it is stopped quickly may end up harming everybody. The way out is clear: De-escalate, negotiate, and re-build, even if as of today, the prospect for that appear distant. The only way out of the present crises is first through de-escalation. A cease fire may not be possible for weeks, but using diplomatic back channels the US and Iran may agree to de-escalate,  or to put it more crudely, stop shooting. It will be up to Trump to ensure that Netanyahu stops shooting too. Once de-escalation happens, the difficult process of negotiations can start again, focusing on the nuclear file and picking up from where discussions were left on 27 February. This is an agreement within reach – a non nuclear Iran in  return for the lifting of sanctions. Other possibilities are possible, and once a cease fire is agreed the EU and China can also be involved in the discussions. Finally, a process of rebuilding must start. The GCC have the money to do reconstruction of infrastructure quickly. Reputational damage to their Shangri-la image will take longer. Rebuilding Iran will be more challenging, given the scale of the destruction, and will require more money than Tehran has. Even as the bombs continue to fall, this issue needs to be considered. In the end no one really wanted this war, and no-one is going to benefit from it. It must be brought to an end as soon as possible, but the thinking of what happens after must start now.