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Tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia have been on an escalatory track since the crash of the Azerbaijani Airlines commercial airplane in December 2024. In the past, similar disputes were usually resolved quickly, leaving little lasting impact. This time, however, the crisis is far more complex and shows no signs of de-escalation. On the contrary, almost every month since the crash has marked new record lows in Baku–Moscow relations and appears likely to have a lasting impact on future bilateral ties. The situation has become so intricate and unpredictable that further deterioration cannot be ruled out.

A Ukrainian citizen suspected of participating in the undersea explosions in 2022 that damaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines between Russia and Germany has been arrested, German prosecutors said on Thursday 21 August. The suspect, identified only as Serhii K. in line with German privacy rules, was arrested overnight in Italy’s Rimini province, federal prosecutors said. According to an AP report, they added that he is believed to be one of the coordinators of the operation.