The United States has announced the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian, an important new multinational security initiative under the umbrella of the Combined Maritime Forces and the leadership of its Task Force 153, which focuses on security in the Red Sea. A Pentagon statement said that "Operation Prosperity Guardian is bringing together multiple countries to include the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain, to jointly address security challenges in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, with the goal of ensuring freedom of navigation for all countries and bolstering regional security and prosperity.” The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians in Gaza has spilled over into the Red Sea as Houthi rebels in Yemen, who control parts of the country including its capital and some of its Red Sea coastline, intensify their attacks on shipping passing through the Red Sea. BP on Monday, became the latest of a number of global companies that announced the suspension of use of the vital Red Sea route which connects the Gulf region and the Indian Ocean to Europe through the Suez Canal. The United States has condemned the attacks and promised decisive action to deal with them.  The Pentagon announced on Monday the formation of a new international mission focused on countering attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.

"Despite hopes, Armenia and Azerbaijan failed to sign a peace agreement by the end of 2023", writes Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. "However, since the text of the document seems to be, by and large, already agreed, there are hopes that an agreement may be signed in the first half of 2024. Otherwise, the EU and US election cycles in the Summer and Autumn of 2024 may push the South Caucasus out of the West's radar. If this happens, Russia may resume its leading role as a negotiation platform between Armenia and Azerbaijan, pushing the two sides to sign a peace agreement in Moscow by the end of 2024", he argues. 

For many months formal talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in stagnation, writes Samir Hajizada in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. Then on 7 December, the two countries surprised the international community with a joint statement re-affirming commitment to the peace process and announcing confidence-building measures. A number of recent developments allow us to assume that the bilateral discussion format is finally gaining a real momentum. Thus, on December 14, the Government of Armenia has approved the regulations for the functioning of the delimitation commission- while a similar move is expected from Baku in the coming days. Moreover, on the same day Azerbaijani MFA issued a statement that normalisation of relations with Armenia seems realistic, and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan during his visit to Azerbaijan stated that peace between the countries is very close. The opportunities for a long-awaited breakthrough suddenly started to look bright at the end of the grim 2023.

If one had said it even as recently as 2021, that by the end of 2023 Georgia would be given "candidate status" for EU membership, hardly anyone would have believed it. Yet it happened yesterday, when the member states gathered in the European Council in Brussels took the historic decision to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova and grant candidate status to Georgia. The immediate impact of this decision will be minimal - some consider the step as more symbolic than tangible, but soon, the impact of the prospect of a South Caucasus country becoming an EU member will sink in, with huge implications. Of course, it is the events around Ukraine starting with the Russian invasion in February 2022, that changed all the certainties. And it was also Ukraine that dominated the news yesterday. The decision to open accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova will also have tremendous implications. Perhaps appropriately it was taken in somewhat dramatic circumstances, after Hungary tried to oppose it. Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orban, left the meeting of the European Council to enable the decision to be adopted unanimously by the remaining 26 member states. There remains a decision on the issue of a substantial aid package to Ukraine, which has been left for another meeting in January. What now for Georgia? In Georgia everyone is trying to take credit for the "candidate status" decision. Good thing because everyone can now feel to be a stakeholder in the journey that needs to follow. No doubt, in the style of Georgian politics, the journey will be  adventurous and sometimes hazardous. But the new status is good news for Georgia. It will help stabilise the political situation, and contribute towards economic success. The decision also brings the EU firmly in the South Caucasus. Those who very disingenuously in the last year or so have been talking about keeping the South Caucasus cosy in a 3 plus 3  format - ie with Russia, Iran and Turkey together with Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, now need to think again. The South Caucasus is Europe and Europe should be a partner in its future. But that is for later. For today, it is congratulations Georgia, and to all those Georgians who for decades worked for this development to be possible.

In a vote in the United Nations General Assembly 153 member nations supported a call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Only 10 countries voted against it and 33 abstained. The vote took place during an emergency special session of the assembly titled “Protection of Civilians and Upholding Legal and Humanitarian Obligations.” It was called last week by the representatives of Egypt and Mauritania, in their capacities as chair of the Arab Group and chair of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation respectively, after the US on Friday vetoed a Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire. The draft of the text of the resolution adopted by the General Assembly on Tuesday, and seen by Arab News, closely reflected the vetoed Security Council resolution. It expresses “grave concern over the catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip and the suffering of the Palestinian civilian population, and (emphasizes) that the Palestinian and Israeli civilian populations must be protected in accordance with international humanitarian law.” It calls for “an immediate humanitarian ceasefire” as well as the “immediate and unconditional release of all hostages.” The vote once more exposed divisions in the position of EU member states, with Austria and Czechia voting against the resolution, whilst Bulgaria, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Romania, and Slovakia abstained. All other EU members voted in favour.

The foreign ministers of the 27 EU member-states, meeting in the framework of the Foreign Affairs Council, on Monday (11 December) agreed to increase the size of the EU Mission in Armenia from 138 to 209. This was announced by the High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Josep Borrell in a briefing after the session of the Council in Brussels. Borrell told journalists, "You know that we are currently working on strengthening our relations with Armenia. I see that Armenia clearly sees the benefits of increasing cooperation with us, and we are ready to respond positively." Borrell referred to the ongoing efforts to normalise Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, stating:  "We believe that there is a historic chance to achieve peace in the region. It is an opportunity. We are committed to continue our support to these efforts – by working together with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The fact that we have decided to increase by such an important number our staff on this mission shows our clear commitment to the stability in the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan and [is] an important contribution to the peace efforts." The Foreign Affairs Council also held an informal exchange of views with the Armenian Foreign Minister, Ararat Mirzoyan at the start of its proceedings. During the day, Borrell also held a meeting with the Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan, Jeyhun Bayramov. Azerbaijan has criticised the fact that only the Armenian Foreign Minister was invited to exchange views with the Foreign Affairs Council, and that no similar invitation was extended to his Azerbaijani counterpart.