The war against Iran, unleashed by the United States and Israel started 100 days ago, on 28 February 2026. Two days later, in my Monday Commentary on commonspace.eu, I said that Donald Trump had opened Pandora’s Box, and that the conflict unleashed will have deep and lasting consequences for the region, and for the world. Unfortunately, it seems I was right. We are just at the beginning of what are likely to be, a chain of events, that remain for the most part unpredictable, even if the dangers, turmoil and risks, can already be seen. The problem is far from being resolved. A sort of a ceasefire has decreased the violence in the Gulf. Trump, under pressure from many quarters, to bring the crisis to a halt, keeps promising a deal “soon”, but in this, as with everything else in this saga, Trump is far away from reality. The revolutionary regime in Iran did not melt away; the killing of the Supreme Leader did not end the regime, nor did it mellow it down, the Iranian people did not rise to overthrow the clerics and their system, and the world did not rally around the US to support its adventure. Instead, Trump found himself tied to Israel’s Benyamin Netanyahu, and his convoluted view of the Middle East. Traffic through the vital global trade artery – the Strait of Hormuz, has been disrupted, as have global energy supplies, and other vital goods, such as fertilizer. Even if a semblance of peace is restored, the impact will be widespread and everlasting. This is seen, and will be seen even more crudely in the future, in the six Gulf monarchies that constitute the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC). The six countries have since the late 1960s relied on the US for their defence and security. They had blind faith in the US, and this seemed to increase when Donald Trump returned to the White House for a second term. They did not want the war. It came as an unpleasant surprise. But once it started, they expected the Americans to win it quickly and decisively. Instead, they find themselves faced with an injured but emboldened Iran, and a new Gulf reality that is unpleasant and uncomfortable. The GCC countries have to go back to the drawing board. At least three of them, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE, have the financial clout necessary, and leaders that are sharp enough to deliver. But there are some realities that will be inevitable. Iran, a hundred days after the killing of the Supreme Leader, is injured but emboldened. The heavy bombardments by the most powerful planes and missiles of the US and Israel, killed thousands of people, including one tier of leaders. But the worst damage is the material damage to infrastructure and facilities that will take years to restore. So far, the Islamic Republic, and its institutions have remained intact. But that does not mean they are not under pressure. Beyond the bravado speech coming out of Tehran, there is another reality. The war might not have triggered the revolt that Netanyahu and Trump expected, but it has triggered a process of change, the full implications of which will only be seen once the dust has settled. Donald Trump emerges from the last hundred days weakened and vulnerable. The outcome of the war is not what he expected. It was his war, even if some say that it was Netanyahu’s war. He thought he could win it quickly and decisively. He didn’t. Americans, to the right and to the left, are unhappy with the war and its consequences. They will have their say in the mid-term elections later this year. It is too early for the opponents of Trump to claim victory. But the writing is on the wall. The war will define Trump’s second term. For the moment it does not look good for the president. It does not look good for the United Sates either. Despite the impressive display of US shooting power, the war exposed the limits of US power, and the increasing US isolation in the world. The US can flatten a country, but it cannot flatten a people. The US deployed everything it has against Iran, except nuclear weapons. It dented the Iranian regime and its capabilities. Maybe even more. But it did not obliterate it. That clearly came as a surprise to Donald Trump; to US allies in the Gulf it came as a shock; to US adversaries in the world, who were watching carefully, it was a very instructive moment, and they all drew their own conclusions. The last hundred days have had an impact on others too: Israel; Lebanon, and the Palestinians, are caught in it. Europe is trying desperately not to be embroiled in Trump’s war. But Europe must be prepared for the day after. There is little sign of that yet. ======== (Click the image to read the Monday Commentary in full)

Farah Karimi, Special Co-ordinator and leader of the short-term OSCE observer mission, said that: “The concentration of arrests and criminal prosecutions against opposition figures contributed to perceptions of selective justice, while a polarized media landscape, inflammatory rhetoric, misinformation, and persistent foreign pressure and interference challenged Armenia’s democratic resilience and the integrity of public debate. This underscores the importance of continued efforts to strengthen democratic institutions, safeguard fundamental freedoms, and foster public trust in democratic processes. ” Damien Cottier, Head of the delegation of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, argued that “The Armenian elections took place in a particularly tense geopolitical context, with direct foreign interference. In particular, pressure and threats from Russian authorities reached an unprecedented and worrying level.” Janez Lenarčič, head of the election observation mission from the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, stated that “Armenia’s voters were given – and took – the opportunity to make a genuine choice in a professionally managed election process and a vibrant and pluralistic, if often highly polarized campaign. “Unfortunately, they had to make that choice against the backdrop of unprecedented foreign interference and pressure, in the form of punitive trade measures and day-by-day threats of further negative consequences contingent on which choice they made”. == click image to read full report

The finalization of preliminary data from all 2,005 polling stations following Armenia’s parliamentary elections has yielded a deceptively straightforward result. While the ruling Civil Contract party captured 49.81% of the popular vote, falling just short of an absolute majority among the electorate, the cold mechanics of the d'Hondt method and the natural elimination of minor lists under the updated threshold transformed this plurality into a commanding 60.95% legislative majority. Civil Contract has organically secured 64 out of the 105 baseline mandates, easily crossing the constitutionally required 54% threshold for a "stable majority." By completely eliminating the prospect of a second-round runoff or the necessity of building a coalition, this outcome allows Nikol Pashinyan to retain the premiership and form a unilateral executive. The remaining seats have been distributed between a fragmented opposition: the "Strong Armenia" bloc secured 29 mandates, while the "Armenia" bloc obtained 12. The Prosperous Armenia Party failed to cross the updated threshold, settling at 4.00% before final ballot adjustments.