The president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, on Monday (31 October) hosted in Sochi the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, prime minister Nikol Pashinyan and president Ilham Aliyev. Putin met separately with the two leaders, before hosting a two-hour trilateral meeting to discuss the current state of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations. The highly choreographed meetings in the grand settings of the Kremlin's summer residence in Sochi did not, it seems, result in the expectations that the Russian leader had of the sessions. After concluding the discussions only Putin made press comments, saying that they could not agree on many issues, but that he still felt that the meeting was "useful". The Russian president said that many elements that had been included in the draft of the statement prepared by the experts had to be deleted. In the joint written statement eventually issued at the end of the meeting, the three leaders touched upon the current state of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, and the role of Russia. The statement appeared to endorse most of what was included in the Prague statement of 6 October 2022 between the president of the European Council, the president of France and the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The statement appeared to give a nod to a continuing Russian military force in Nagorno-Karabakh, and spoke about dialogue between representatives of societies.

Very often, Central Asia is referred to as Russia’s back yard, even though today the region feels more like China’s front garden. But whilst the two “inseparable” friends, compete for influence and resources, the five Central Asian countries have set on a course to integrate themselves in global processes, break out of their geographic - and more importantly their geo-political constraints - and deliver better for their people. In this week's Monday Commentary on commonspace.eu, Dennis Sammut says that the Central Asian states have been reaching out to the EU and the US, whilst domestically some of them have embarked on deep reforms considered all but unimaginable until recently. The visit of European Council president Charles Michel to the region on 27-28 October marked a high point in a new phase in the relationship between the EU and Central Asia. In Kazakhstan, Michel not only met the Kazakh leadership, but also held a summit with the five Central Asian leaders in Astana, before travelling to Uzbekistan. For both the Central Asians and for the EU this is a watershed moment, and the beginning of a long journey. Europe’s approach to Central Asia needs to be respectful, both to the five countries themselves, and to their existing partners. Arrogance, even of the intellectual kind will simply backfire. But respect does not mean meekness. As a heavyweight in international relations, even if for the moment its economic weight dwarfs its political weight, the EU needs to approach Central Asia neither as a supplicant, nor as a benefactor, but simply as a reliable partner. Furthermore, this partnership needs to be diverse, multi-tiered and nuanced. It must take in relations with citizens, where Europe has much to offer both in terms of being a model, but also in terms of what it can share in areas such as education, innovation, youth welfare, women’s rights and diversity.

Presidential elections will be held in Kazakhstan on 20 November. A country that until a few years ago had only known the rule of one man, is now being given a choice between six candidates, the incumbent president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, and five others:  Karakat Abden, Nurlan Auesbayev, Zhiguli Dairabayev, Meiram Kazhyken and Saltanat Tursynbekova. A 300 strong OSCE Observation Mission will deploy on election day to observe the elections. Headed by Urszula Gacek, the mission has already deployed a core team of 11 international experts based in Astana and 30 long-term observers, who will travel to the remotest parts of Kazakhstan in 15 two-person teams. The ODIHR also plans to request 300 short-term observers arrive several days before the election day. Meanwhile the election campaignb has started in earnest. The winner will serve for one seven year term and will not be eligible for re-election, according to constitutional changes proposed by president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, that were adopted recently.

On 27 October 2022, President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President of the Kyrgyz Republic Sadyr Zhaparov, President of the Republic of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon, President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev and President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedov (represented by Turkmenistan's Deputy Chair of the Cabinet of Ministers) and President of the European Council Charles Michel welcomed the first regional high-level meeting in Astana. A joint statement issued after the historic meeting said that "in an open and friendly atmosphere of mutual respect and trust, the participants summarized the past period of multifaceted and mutually beneficial cooperation between Central Asian states and the EU and reaffirmed their commitment to continue building a strong diversified and forward-looking partnership underpinned by shared values and mutual interests. They reaffirmed their commitment to work together for peace, security, democracy, rule of law and sustainable development in full respect for international law. They expressed continued commitment to uphold the UN Charter, particularly the principles of respect for the independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity of all countries., non-use of force or threat of its use and peaceful settlement of international disputes." In the 30 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between Central Asian States and the EU, interregional cooperation has advanced in many areas and sectors and serves as an example of a multilateral partnership for prosperity and sustainability.

The Ukrainian army has reinforced its military strength in the north of Ukraine, along the border with Belarus. Ukrainian Deputy head of the General Staff's Main Operations Directorate Oleksii Hromov reported this at a press conference on Thursday morning (27 October). How strong Ukrainian the new units in the north are now and whether those reinforcements will come at the expense of military deployments in the south Hromov did not tell. "Right now we do not see a build-up of an attacking force, but that threat is there and will remain there," Hromov said. "We are responding to it and have reinforced our forces in the north." The Ukrainians have been preparing for another possible attack from Belarus for several weeks. At the beginning of the invasion, Russia tried to capture the capital Kyiv from that direction, and although the Ukrainians chased them away, military activity in the neighbouring country has recently been increasing again.

For many years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the emergence of the newly independent successor states, Russian diplomats counselled their western colleagues on the business of dealing with the people of the Caucasus, and their politics. They often described the Caucasians as the "excitable people of the South", who needed a special kind of handling, and only Russians knew how to do it. It was a Soviet version of "orientalism" that still lingers among the current Russian elite. Putin’s handling of the 2nd Karabakh War - and the subsequent steps he took to establish the post-war order in the region - was very much in this vein. Russia rushed troops to Karabakh to keep the peace, and Russia was to be involved at every stage and in every corner of building a post-war order. There was no space left for others to contribute to this process, except for some general reference to a UN role in providing humanitarian aid. Well content that the excitable people of the South had been calmed down, President Putin turned his attention to other matters – namely what for him were the less excitable, but no less irritable people on the western frontier, the Ukrainians.