Tensions are rising in Iran and across the Middle East, uncertainty hangs over Donald Trump’s commitment to the Euro-Atlantic security umbrella, and war continues along Europe’s eastern border. Against this backdrop, commonspace.eu spoke this week with Dr. Jamie Shea, the former Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges at NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), about what lies ahead. He held several senior positions during a 38-year career at NATO, and represented the Alliance on the international stage as its spokesperson during the 1999 Kosovo War, when he briefed the international press throughout NATO’s air campaign against Yugoslavia. Since retiring from NATO in 2018, he has continued his work as a professor, lecturer, speaker and adviser on European and transatlantic security affairs. Dr. Shea discusses the strategic consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine for NATO’s future, the need for the Alliance to adapt to a rapidly changing battlefield shaped by drones and technological innovation, and the importance of cooperation between NATO and the European Union in strengthening Europe’s defence capabilities.  He argues that instability in the Middle East could reshape the strategic balance for Europe: “The one who smiles is Vladimir Putin, because an oil price of over $100 a barrel for a long period of time is going to refill the Russian war chest, as Putin funds a lot of his Ukraine war effort from his energy resources. You can see that the Americans have already lifted sanctions on Russia to allow Russia to export oil to India to keep international markets flowing. This is what we call ‘robbing Peter to pay Paul’. Yes, it helps the situation in the Gulf temporarily. It removes pressure on the oil market. But the impacts of the war will also mean more inflation, higher energy prices, and higher gas prices in Europe. You are then going to get a lot of European countries saying, ‘well, sorry, but I can’t spend 5 percent of GDP on my defence any longer.’” To read the full interview, click on the image above.

António Costa, president of the European Union Council, has said that Russia is the only country benefiting from the US-Isreali war on Iran, due to soaring energy prices and a shifting focus away from Ukraine.  In a speech on 10 March, Costa said that Russia “gains ‌new resources to finance its war against Ukraine as energy prices rise. It profits from the diversion of military capabilities that could otherwise have been sent to support Ukraine. And it benefits from reduced attention to the Ukrainian front as the conflict in the Middle East takes centre stage.” Costa stressed that the European Union must play a stronger role in defending the international rules-based order, which he said is currently under strain. He also called on all parties involved in the Middle East conflict to return to negotiations and avoid further escalation. His comments come as global energy markets react to the conflict and as diplomatic efforts continue regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine in tandem. Kremlin officials have said all sides are interested in continuing United States-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, although no date or location has yet been set for the next round of negotiations.