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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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GULF CRISIS
Iran and US meet in Islamabad, but no deal is agreed

Iran and US meet in Islamabad, but no deal is agreed

The United States and Iran met at the highest level since the 1979 Iranian revolution in talks in Pakistan on Saturday, 11  April, but were unable to reach an agreement on the issues between them. US-Iran peace talks have failed, US Vice President JD Vance announced in Islamabad, after more than 20 hours of talks with Iranian officials at the Serena Hotel in the Pakistani capital. “The bad news,” he said, “is we have not reached an agreement. We just could not get to a situation where the Iranians would accept our terms.” Announcing he would depart Pakistan, Mr Vance said his team was leaving Iran with “a very simple proposal” – “our final and best offer. We’ll see if the Iranians accept it”. A statement by the Iranian Foreign Ministry released on social media just before Mr Vance spoke did not announce the talks had broken down or reference Washington’s “final offer” directly, but called on Washington to refrain from “excessive demands and unlawful requests”. Less than an hour after he spoke, Mr Vance boarded Air Force Two, the vice-presidential jet, and departed Islamabad for Washington. The sense of exhaustion and disappointment in Islamabad – among both sides, their hosts and observers – has been palpable. Almost immediately after Mr Vance left Pakistan, Iranian state media began quoting Iranian delegation sources saying the US side was “looking for an excuse to leave”. (click the picture to read more).