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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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GULF CRISIS
US-Iran conflict engulfs entire Middle East

US-Iran conflict engulfs entire Middle East

The US-Iran conflcit has now become truly a crisis which is engulfing the entire Middle East. The options open to the US appear to be narrowing. And in the absence of a strategy, what we see is a daily knee-jerk reaction, in the form of daily bombardments or Iran. US ally, Israel, in the meantime continues with military operations in Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank. Iran is retaliating with atttacks on Arab countries. the latest target being Egypt. Iran's allies in Yemen and Iraq are also weighing in. Iran appears to have regained its balance, after the killing of the Supreme Leader on 28 February. Apart from Iran and Israel, the conflict has now engulfed the six GCC countries (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar and Oman), as well as Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Palestine. With the conflict now entering its sixth month, and expanding, the consequences are huge, and not as Donald Trump expected when he capricously launched it.
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GULF CRISIS
Saudi Arabia under attack

Saudi Arabia under attack

Attacks on Saudi Arabia have increased in the last days., as the conflict between the Kingdom, and the Iran-backed Houthi Movement in Yemen escalates. Earlier in July, the Houthis declared a maritime siege on Red Sea shipping to and from Saudi Arabia, and launched missiles and drones at the kingdom. Riyadh has since launched air strikes on Yemen’s key port city of Hodeidah, held by the Houthis. Yemen’s Houthi movement is aiming to replicate Iran’s ⁠strategy in the Strait of Hormuz by controlling shipping flows in the Red Sea’s Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the Yemeni government’s top diplomat warns. “The Houthis want to copy the Iranian model , and this will shut down two main straits, the gateways into the ⁠Gulf and Red Sea,” the foreign minister-designate for the internationally recognised Yemeni government, Afrah al-Zouba, told journalists on Monday. Speaking at the Yemeni embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, al-Zouba said the Houthis have been emboldened due to the insufficient international response to their activities in the region. Bab al-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the wider Indian Ocean, and – much like the Strait of Hormuz – a significant portion of the global economy depends on the unimpeded flow of maritime traffic through it. Approximately 30 percent of global container traffic passes through the Red Sea, and 12 to 15 percent of overall global trade. Yemen’s geography gives whoever controls the country’s west a commanding influence over traffic through Bab al-Mandeb. Data suggests that shipping through the Red Sea is already declining, with just 11 commodity vessels passing through it on Sunday. (click image to read more)