Talks were held in Geneva on Sunday (23 November) between the United States and Ukraine. Also present in Geneva were representatives of the key European countries, France, Germany and UK, and the EU. The talks are expected to continue today. The future if Ukraine is at stake, and so is the future of Europe. There should be no doubt that Putin’s ambitions do not stop in Kiev. The talks are expected to continue today (24 November), and Ukraine’s de facto capitulation is not an option for Europe. The scandalous draft of the plan called “the US plan”, but probably written by the Russians, appears to have been put aside. Officially it is still called the “US plan”, that is what the ego of US president, Donald Trump, requires. But it started to look increasingly like the plan put forward by the Europeans, which is much closer to the Ukrainian position. The Europeans were not represented in Geneva by Ministers and politicians, but by their national security advisors, somber men who are cool and calculating. They have a difficult task: on the one hand they understand very well that Ukraine’s war is Europe’s war, and they know better than anyone else how big the threat of Putin’s Russia is to European peace and security. The risks of the “original US plan” are obvious to them. But they also understand that Ukraine, and up to now Europe, depend on the US for their security. So, they cannot alienate the American president too much. US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, well understands the European dilemma. He finds himself in the unenviable position of needing to reconcile his president’s views, with the Ukrainian and European one. At stake is Ukraine’s future as a state. Ukrainian president Vlodomyr Zelenkiy quaintly calls it “Ukraine’s dignity”. But it is much more than that. Russia does not want Ukraine to exist as a state in any meaningful way. It should either have a puppet government, as it wanted to impose on Kiev when it launched the invasion in February 2022; or be so weak and dismembered that it will be in all but name a vassal of Russia. Whatever is finally agreed in Geneva, and whatever Donald Trump finally decides, 2026 is going to be a crucial year for Ukraine. European support has so far been steady, but must become steadier, regardless of Trumpian shenanigans. 2026 must be the year of European Ukraine. For this to happen their must be more resolve in Europe, and a stronger determination to support Ukraine fully. (read the full commentary by clicking on the image).

Central Asian leaders have been busy the last month, forging new ties in a changing geopolitical landscape. The presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan travelled to the White House to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump in the C5+1 format. The format, established in 2015, aims to deepen U.S. collaboration with Central Asia, emphasising security and economic cooperation. The U.S. is not the only power looking to maintain its influence in the region. The European Union, Russia, China, and increasingly, India, have all shown their interest in securing economic cooperation and inking energy and trade deals, recognising Central Asia’s strategic position as a key energy and transfer hub situated between East and West. Central Asian states are keenly aware of their leverage and have not only engaged in multi-lateral diplomacy with all of the aforementioned external actors but also adopted a pragmatic regional approach to increase cooperation amongst themselves and taken concrete steps to foster a more unified ‘Central Asian Community’. This was evident by last weekend’s Seventh Consultative Meeting of Heads of State, also known as the C5, where Central Asian leaders officially admitted Azerbaijan as a full member, effectively transforming it into the C6. However, although Central Asia has the unique opportunity to multilaterally engage with all of the world’s biggest economic and security powers, while continuing to shape regional politics and cooperation on its own terms, new security and economic issues are arising that may well reshape Central Asian states’ connections to external actors and potentially strain intra-regional relations. (Read the full commentary by clicking on the picture).

A consensus has emerged during COP 30, currently being held in Belan, Brazil, that COP 31 will be held in the Turkish city of Antalya, in 2026. In 2026 Turkiye will host another global event, the NATO leaders summit. Turkiye is set to host COP31 after reaching compromise with Australia.  The COP31 climate meeting is now expected to be held in Turkey after Australia dropped its bid to host the annual event. Under the UN rules, the right to host the COP in 2026 falls to a group of countries made up of Western Europe, Australia and others. A consensus must be reached but neither country had been willing to concede. Australia has now agreed to support the Turkish bid in return for their minister chairing the talks following negotiations at COP30, currently being held in Brazil. This unusual arrangement has taken observers by surprise. It is normal for a COP president to be from the host country and how this new partnership will work in practice remains to be seen. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has called the compromise with Turkey an "outstanding result" in an interview with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), noting Pacific issues would be "front and centre". He added that he had spoken to Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape and Prime Minister Rabuka of Fiji. There will be relief among countries currently meeting at COP30 in the Brazilian city of Belém that a compromise has been reached as the lack of agreement on the venue was becoming an embarrassment for the UN.

An alert issued to MPs, peers and parliamentary staff by security services identified two LinkedIn profiles, which it says are used on behalf of the Chinese Ministry of State Security (MSS). It says they act as "civilian recruitment head-hunters", targeting individuals working in British politics to solicit "insider insights". UK Security minister Dan Jarvis has said the government will not tolerate "covert and calculated" attempts to interfere with the UK's sovereign affairs, after MI5 warned MPs of the risk from Chinese spies. Jarvis announced a package of measures in the House of Commons to tackle espionage threats to the UK.

Unlike earlier drafts, the resolution references a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood. It is language several council members pushed for. Israel strongly opposes the creation of a Palestinian state - a significant hurdle in the path to future statehood. Key Arab states had pressured drafters of the resolution to include Palestinian self-determination in the text. The UN secretary general's spokesperson stressed that the resolution needed to "translate... into concrete and urgently needed steps on the ground" and lead to "a political process for the achievement of the two-state solution". The US, the Palestinian Authority, and several Arab and Muslim-majority nations including Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have called for the quick adoption of the resolution. The Palestinian Authority (PA) said in a statement that the resolution's terms needed to be implemented "urgently and immediately". Russia and China did not exercise the vetoes they possess, but abstained to allow the resolution to pass, largely because the PA and eight other Arab and Muslim nations backed it.