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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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Analysis
UN Security Council to discuss Georgia at the request of the European members

UN Security Council to discuss Georgia at the request of the European members

The United Nations Security Council will discuss the situation in Georgia today (Wednesday, 20 August). The Council’s European members (E5)—Denmark, France, Greece, Latvia, and the UK—requested the meeting to mark the 18th anniversary of the 2008 Russia-Georgia war.  Several European members of the Council are expected to reaffirm their support for Georgia’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders. They are likely to condemn Russia’s actions during the 2008 conflict and its continued military presence in Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region/South Ossetia and call on Russia to implement the 2008 ceasefire agreement. These members may also express opposition to steps that they regard as altering the status quo or leading to greater Russian integration with the two areas. In a 7 August statement marking the 18th anniversary of the conflict, the EU expressed concern about “increasing Russian attempts” to de facto integrate Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region/South Ossetia into Russia’s regulatory and security space. The statement maintains that these measures, such as the “Agreement on Deepening Allied Cooperation” signed between Moscow and Tskhinvali on 9 May, and the appointment of a Russian official as “Acting President” of South Ossetia, have no validity under international law. European members may also raise human rights concerns—including with regard to restrictions on freedom of movement and other measures affecting conflict-affected communities—and call for unhindered access for international human rights and humanitarian actors. They are also expected to emphasise the need for renewed dialogue and may highlight the EU’s mediation role, including through its co-chairmanship of the GID and the work of the EU Monitoring Mission in Georgia (EUMM). In a 9 July statement following the latest GID round, the EU reiterated its support for the discussions and called for all participants, including Russia, to commit to the non-use of force and for the establishment of a verification mechanism. Other Council members are expected to emphasise dialogue and de-escalation, as well as the need to reach a peaceful settlement through existing diplomatic mechanisms. Such members may underscore the importance of confidence-building and the continued functioning of the GID. Russia is likely to reject European members’ characterisation of the 2008 conflict and reiterate its own account of the events. In an 8 August press release marking this year’s anniversary, the Russian Foreign Ministry maintained that Georgia initiated the hostilities against South Ossetia, defending Russia’s military response. Moscow is also likely to reiterate its call for legally binding commitments on the non-use of force between Tbilisi and the authorities in Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region/South Ossetia, which it stated would provide a “robust guarantee against a recurrence” of the events of August 2008. (click image to read more)
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GULF CRISIS
Former Iranian leader Khatami rejects calls for conflict with US, as Iran's leadership seeks new regional security order

Former Iranian leader Khatami rejects calls for conflict with US, as Iran's leadership seeks new regional security order

Former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami has warned that some in Iran believe the nation’s “life and survival lie in war,” openly questioning the logic behind that stance, according to Iran’s Fars news agency. “Some say: ‘First, we will teach America a lesson here, then we will go to the heart of America and fight it there.’ But what reality is this based on?” Khatami asked. “My feelings were also wounded when they killed our commander, and one’s eyes could almost weep blood. But governing a society cannot be based on raw emotion,” he added. “We must consider what serves the ultimate interests of the country, the system, and Islam." In the meantime, Iranian Parliament Speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who is currently in Baghdad, says his visit to Iraq is intended to strengthen what he called a “new regional order” without foreign interference. Speaking at the site where former General Qassem Soleimani was killed, Ghalibaf said: “Today’s visit to Iraq is aimed at strengthening the new order in the region and accelerating mutual cooperation among all countries of the region, without the intervention of foreign powers.” He added that Islamic countries in the region should seek to establish “deep security interactions and ties” supported by sustainable economic cooperation. “The Islamic Republic of Iran declares its full readiness to realise this regional model,” he added.
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Opinion
Opinion: Sustaining Momentum in Armenia-Türkiye Normalization After Armenia’s Parliamentary Elections

Opinion: Sustaining Momentum in Armenia-Türkiye Normalization After Armenia’s Parliamentary Elections

"The signing of the framework agreement between Armenia and the United States on the Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) on June 4, 2026, and the ruling Civil Contract party’s victory in Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary elections have opened a window of opportunity to advance Armenia-Türkiye normalization. Türkiye, in coordination with the United States, is well positioned to seize this moment and help move the region from frozen conflict toward normalization", write Dr Benyamin Poghosyan, in this article for the Turkish publication, "Global Panorama". He adds, "TRIPP emerged from the August 2025 Washington meeting, where Armenia and Azerbaijan also initialed a peace agreement, giving fresh momentum to regional normalization. Since then, TRIPP has been moving toward implementation. The framework agreement signed on June 4 established the basis for developing and operating the route. This was followed in early July by a visit from engineers from the U.S. consulting firm AECOM, who surveyed the proposed site for rail and other infrastructure development. On July 16, the Armenian government approved a draft law to ratify the framework agreement and submitted it to the Constitutional Court. These steps were encouraging for both the Armenia-Azerbaijan and Armenia-Türkiye normalization processes, as all sides view TRIPP as part of the region’s broader transition from conflict and isolation toward connectivity and cooperation. Yet normalization has not proceeded as some may have expected, and the momentum generated in Washington is fading. The main hurdle to signing the peace agreement is Azerbaijan’s insistence that Armenia amend its constitution. The dispute centers on the preamble’s reference to Armenia’s 1990 Declaration of Independence, which cites a 1989 decision supporting the reunification of Soviet Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia’s prime minister had stated that amending the constitution had been part of the ruling party’s election platform and promised to publish a draft of the new constitution by the end of 2026. But despite its victory, the Civil Contract party did not secure the two-thirds majority in parliament needed to approve a new constitution. Even if the ruling party can persuade some opposition MPs to support it, final approval would still require a nationwide referendum, whose outcome is far from guaranteed given significant public opposition. That, in turn, has complicated Armenia-Türkiye normalization, as Ankara considers a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan a prerequisite for progress. Relations between Yerevan and Ankara have improved since 2022. In July 2022, the two sides agreed to open their border to third-country nationals and diplomatic passport holders as a first step toward full normalization. Since then, their special representatives have met several times, discussed rehabilitating the Gyumri-Kars railway, and agreed to permit direct trade. But the talks have produced no major breakthrough, and four years later, the border remains closed. This has created a vicious circle: without constitutional change, there is no Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement; without that agreement, Armenia-Türkiye normalization cannot advance; and without progress on either track, the momentum generated by the August 2025 Washington summit risks being lost. Meanwhile, the U.S. midterm elections in November may shift the Trump administration’s attention toward domestic politics, leaving roughly four months to break the deadlock and restore momentum." click the image to read the article in full)