61 per cent of Georgians believe that the country’s integration into the European Union would have a positive impact on Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian relations according to a new study by the Caucasus Research Resource Center on conflicts in Georgia. Additionally, 56 per cent think that NATO membership would also be a positive development. When it comes to Georgia’s rapprochement with Russia, 31 per cent of respondents believe it would have positive consequences. The study, “Conflicts in Georgia: Perceptions, Attitudes, and Expectations”, was commissioned by the Institute for Nationalism and Conflict Studies, the Levan Mikeladze Foundation, and the Caucasian House and conducted by the Caucasus Research Resource Center in 2024.
The study also examines the potential impact of different outcomes of the Russia-Ukraine war on conflicts in Georgia. 42 per cent of respondents believe that if Russia loses the war, it will have only a positive effect on Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian relations. Among those displaced by conflicts, this figure is even higher—57 per cent. Meanwhile, 54 per cent of respondents think that a Russian victory in the war would negatively affect Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian relations. Among displaced persons, this figure rises to 63 per cent.
83 per cent of respondents believe that Georgians, Abkhazians, and Ossetians can peacefully coexist within a single state. A similar majority agrees that dialogue between Georgians and Abkhazians, as well as between Georgians and Ossetians, is necessary and should begin immediately. When asked what prevents this dialogue from starting, 69 per cent pointed to Russian policy as the main obstacle.
Respondents were also asked about the impact of time on conflict resolution. When presented with the statement, “Over time, the prospects for reconciliation between Georgians and Abkhazians, as well as Georgians and Ossetians, are decreasing,” more than half agreed. 38 per cent of respondents believe that, over time, displaced persons from Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region are losing the desire to return to their homes permanently.
Restoring territorial integrity, territorial governance scenarios, and conflict resolution remain key topics in public opinion surveys conducted in Georgia. Ahead of the 2024 parliamentary elections, the ruling Georgian Dream party declared that restoring Georgia’s territorial integrity was its top priority. The party told voters that it needed a constitutional majority, arguing that “events around Georgia are unfolding rapidly, and at any moment, conditions may arise for the peaceful restoration of territorial integrity.” This message was repeatedly emphasized by Bidzina Ivanishvili, the honorary chairman of Georgian Dream and the country’s de facto ruler, during meetings with the public.
The study participants were also asked about possible paths and scenarios for restoring territorial integrity. When asked how they envision Georgia regaining control over the occupied regions, a third of respondents said they believe the best way to achieve this is through negotiations with Abkhazians and Ossetians. Only one percent considered military action an effective solution.
The survey results show that 75 per cent of respondents would agree to Abkhazia and Tskhinvali being part of Georgia without autonomy. Meanwhile, 47 per cent said they would not oppose granting these regions autonomy. At the same time, more than half of those surveyed stated that the creation of a confederation consisting of Abkhazia, the Tskhinvali region on one side, and Georgia on the other would be unacceptable.
A total of 85 per cent of respondents said it was unacceptable for Abkhazia and Tskhinvali to be independent states. An overwhelming majority- 91% -stated that the incorporation of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region into Russia was unacceptable. According to most respondents, dialogue with Abkhazians and Ossetians about their future status could only begin if displaced persons return with full security guarantees (53 per cent) and if Russian troops completely withdraw from the territory (43 epr cent).
The majority of respondents (33 per cent “agree,” 40 per cent “rather agree than disagree”) stated that both sides are victims in these conflicts. Residents of Abkhazia and Tskhinvali are just as much victims as Georgians. A total of 82 per cent said that to improve relations, both sides must acknowledge thSource: commonspace.eu with agencies. Photo: APe mistakes made in the past. Meanwhile, 80 per cent believe that relations should start with a clean slate. Another 80 per cent of respondents stated that involving internally displaced persons in peacebuilding processes would positively impact Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian relations.
The study also seeks to determine whether any forms of connection exist between Georgians and Abkhazians, as well as Georgians and Ossetians—whether they have the opportunity to communicate in person, by phone, or online. Findings suggest that the process of alienation has advanced significantly. More than 80 per cent of respondents stated that they have no contact with people living in the conflict regions.
For instance, 82 per cent of those surveyed said they do not know anyone currently residing in Abkhazia (excluding residents of the Gali district). A total of 89 per cent had never met a person living in Abkhazia, while 92–93 per cent reported having no contact with them whatsoever—not by phone, nor online.
Connections with Tskhinvali have also been largely severed. A total of 87 per cent said they do not know anyone living in Tskhinvali (excluding residents of Akhalgori). Meanwhile, 94 per cent stated they had never personally met someone from Tskhinvali, and 95 per cent had no contact with them at all,ne ither online nor by phone.
