Geneva summit: high stakes, low expectations

President Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia and President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan are expected to meet in Geneva on Monday (16 October) in the latest effort to start the process of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The two presidents met last time in June 2016 in St Petersburg in a meeting that was brokered by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin, Sargsyan and Aliyev last week were all in Sochi attending the summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States, but no trilateral meeting was reported.

The Geneva summit has been prepared with the assistance of the diplomats from France, Russia and the United States who co-Chair the OSCE Minsk Process that since 1992 has been mandated by the international community to mediate between the sides in the conflict. Despite a cease fire agreed in 1994 the two sides regularly engage in low-intensity hostilities. Hundreds of military personnel and civilians on both sides have been killed since the cease fire came into effect.

Commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that the stakes on the success of tomorrow's meeting are high. "With the two sides now possessing very sophisticated weaponary, most of it supplied by Russia, a resumption of fighting will throw the region into havoc. The events in April 2016, when an upsurge in fighting led to many casualties on both sides, was just a taster of what might happen. Despite the fact that the international community is distracted by even larger dangers in East Asia, the Middle East and Africa, the Karabakh conflict remains a matter of concern way beyond the region. The meeting between the two presidents will be a welcome sign that the two sides are ready to re-engage in the negotiations that are necessary if the conflict is to be resolved. However, expectations, in the region and beyond, are low. The two presidents have met more than a dozen times since 2008, on each ocassion raising hopes momentarily of a breakthrough. But lack of follow-up on decisions taken always allowed the situation to slide back to an even lower point than before. Given that there is a sense that time is now running out, and that the status quo is now not only no longer acceptable, but also no longer tenable, this summit may prove to be the last chance Aliyev and Sargsyan have to make their mark on history through a peaceful breakthrough."

related content: Baku and Yerevan give different spins to St Petersburg Summit

souce: commonspace.eu with agencies

photo: President Aliyev and president Sargsyan at an earlier summit (archive picture)

Related articles

Editor's choice
News
Borrell tells the European Parliament that the situation in Afghanistan was critical, but the EU will remain engaged

Borrell tells the European Parliament that the situation in Afghanistan was critical, but the EU will remain engaged

Borrell underlined that the European Union will make every effort to support the peace process and to remain a committed partner to the Afghan people. "Of course, we will have to take into account the evolving situation, but disengagement is not an option.  We are clear on that: there is no alternative to a negotiated political settlement, through inclusive peace talks.
Editor's choice
News
Israeli hostages and Palestinian detainees released as Trump’s Gaza plan is endorsed in Egypt summit

Israeli hostages and Palestinian detainees released as Trump’s Gaza plan is endorsed in Egypt summit

Hamas freed the last living Israeli hostages from Gaza on Monday 13 October under a ceasefire deal and Israel sent home busloads of Palestinian detainees, as U.S. President Donald Trump declared the end of the two-year long war in the Middle East. Hours later, Trump convened Muslim and European leaders in Egypt to discuss the future of the Gaza Strip and the possibility of a wider regional peace, even as Hamas and Israel, both absent from the gathering, are yet to agree on the next steps. The Israeli military said it had received all 20 hostages confirmed to be alive, after their transfer form Gaza by the Red Cross. The announcement prompted cheering, hugging and weeping among thousands waiting at "Hostage Square" in Tel Aviv. In Gaza, thousands of relatives, many weeping with joy, gathered at a hospital where buses brought home some of the nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees to be freed by Israel as part of the accord. "The skies are calm, the guns are silent, the sirens are still and the sun rises on a Holy Land that is finally at peace," Trump told the Knesset, Israel's parliament, saying a "long nightmare" for both Israelis and Palestinians was over.

Popular

Editor's choice
News
Israeli hostages and Palestinian detainees released as Trump’s Gaza plan is endorsed in Egypt summit

Israeli hostages and Palestinian detainees released as Trump’s Gaza plan is endorsed in Egypt summit

Hamas freed the last living Israeli hostages from Gaza on Monday 13 October under a ceasefire deal and Israel sent home busloads of Palestinian detainees, as U.S. President Donald Trump declared the end of the two-year long war in the Middle East. Hours later, Trump convened Muslim and European leaders in Egypt to discuss the future of the Gaza Strip and the possibility of a wider regional peace, even as Hamas and Israel, both absent from the gathering, are yet to agree on the next steps. The Israeli military said it had received all 20 hostages confirmed to be alive, after their transfer form Gaza by the Red Cross. The announcement prompted cheering, hugging and weeping among thousands waiting at "Hostage Square" in Tel Aviv. In Gaza, thousands of relatives, many weeping with joy, gathered at a hospital where buses brought home some of the nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees to be freed by Israel as part of the accord. "The skies are calm, the guns are silent, the sirens are still and the sun rises on a Holy Land that is finally at peace," Trump told the Knesset, Israel's parliament, saying a "long nightmare" for both Israelis and Palestinians was over.