Diplomacy

Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned on Tuesday that the United States would give up on mediation unless Russia and Ukraine put forward "concrete proposals," as US patience wanes on an early priority for Donald Trump. The US president had vowed to end the war in his first 24 hours back in the White House but, as Trump celebrates 100 days in office, Rubio has suggested the administration could soon turn attention to other issues.

On April 17, 2025, Tbilisi played host to a historic moment, as the foreign ministers of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia convened for the first-ever formal trilateral consultations. The central aim of the parties was to establish a transparent channel for dialogue and explore concrete steps for regional cooperation. The discussions were notably constructive, the parties identified several areas for potential collaboration, and importantly, the meeting set the stage for further talks, with a promise to follow up on the progress made and to develop a more comprehensive roadmap for trilateral cooperation. It was a signal that the political realities of the region are shifting. Now it is important to understand why such cooperation was not possible until now and why it has become possible only today.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered a surprise three-day ceasefire from May 8-10, coinciding with Moscow's World War II Victory Day commemorations, the Kremlin said on Monday. Moscow said it expected Kyiv to issue a similar order, and that it stood ready to respond to any violations of the possible halt in fighting.  Putin made a similar order to stop combat over Easter, a truce that both sides accused the other of violating hundreds of times, but did lead to a temporary reduction in fighting.

Since Armenia gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, normalizing relations with Turkey has been one of the country’s top foreign-policy priorities. The rationale behind this has been both economic, to end the blockade and facilitate access to Turkish Mediterranean ports, and political, to drive a wedge in the Azerbaijan–Turkey strategic partnership. Armenia took steps towards normalization in 2008 and 2009. As a result of intensive negotiations, Armenia and Turkey signed two protocols in Zurich in 2009 to open their borders and establish diplomatic relations. However, Turkey did not ratify them, under intense pressure from Azerbaijan.

The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s (OSCE) Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioğlu is in Tbilisi this week, in his first visit since the October parliamentary elections widely seen as flawed. The OSCE/ODIHR’s own observer mission had criticised the government’s handling of the October 2024 elections. On Wednesday, Sinirlioğlu met with the Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze.

US President Donald Trump said a deal to halt the Ukraine war was "very close" but hit out at Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky over his refusal to formally cede Crimea to Russia. Trump's comments came as Vice President JD Vance warned that the United States would "walk away" unless Russia and Ukraine agree a peace deal, and as envoys from Washington, Kyiv and European nations gathered for downgraded talks in Britain.

On April 9, at an international conference in Baku, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev delivered a statement on the ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the United States. Reaffirming Azerbaijan’s steadfast commitment to Ukraine’s territorial integrity, Aliyev sharply criticized proposals that urge Ukraine to cede parts of its territory in exchange for a ceasefire. “No country, at least in my understanding, will agree to compromise on territorial integrity, and to expect Ukraine to agree that they will sacrifice their internationally recognized territory in exchange for peace is not fair and not realistic,” he declared.

US envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Russia this week, a Kremlin aide said Tuesday, as US President Donald Trump seeks a speedy deal to end the three-year Ukraine conflict. Trump, who promised on the campaign trail to strike a deal between Moscow and Kyiv in 24 hours, has failed since his return to office three months ago to wrangle concessions from Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt his troops in Ukraine.

Since February 2020, it is not uncommon for the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to appear on the same stage at international events – or at least at the Munich Security Conference. The same has not been true for their foreign ministers. That changed on April 12 at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, a notable moment just weeks after the finalisation of a long-overdue treaty aimed at normalising relations between the two countries. While the road ahead remains uncertain, the meeting carried clear symbolic significance.