Conflict and War

A preliminary memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran was agreed on Thursday (28 May), emerging as one of the most concrete diplomatic developments of the war so far. Writing for Arab News, Hassan Al-Mustafa reported that the memorandum's primary provisions focus on the consolidation of a renewable truce, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the removal of naval mines, the allowing of the passage of commercial ships and oil tankers without fees, and a gradual easing of economic restrictions on Iran (note, it postpones the negotiations on the nuclear issue entirely). The memorandum, importantly, is not a finalized peace deal but rather a genuine attempt to establish a safe transition from war to the negotiating table. And hence, as reported by Hassan Al-Mustafa, it leaves some obstacles along the way: whether Iran‘s opening of the Strait will be full and instant or gradual and conditional; whether sanctions relief will precede or follow nuclear commitments; whether Iran will commit to restraining and holding back its allied groups in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen; and whether US President Trump will succeed in separating the Iran track from his desire to expand the Abraham Accords, especially given that Saudi Arabia has coupled any recognition of Israel to a credible road map toward Palestinian statehood. Another factor defining the success of the memorandum of understanding comes from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s participation in a group call with Trump and the leaders of Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Jordan, Egypt, Türkiye, and Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, but reflects Riyadh’s determination that an understanding with Tehran must be embedded in an integrated regional security framework, beyond a bilateral deal between Washington and Tehran alone. (To read the full briefing, click on the image above.)