GCC

The crises unleashed by the US-Israeli attack on Iran on 28 February is now in the second week. The Islamic Republic of Iran is taking a battering, but shows no sign of collapse. It has a chosen a new Supreme Leader – the son of the one killed  at the start of the US/Israeli attack, and is preparing for a long fight. There are ninety million Iranians, most of who are likely to rally around the flag, and defend their country. The crises has implications, for the whole region and the whole world, and we are just at the start. Ukraine has been pushed off the front pages. It is very easy for it now to be pushed off the agenda of European leaders. It must not. Regardless of the enormity of what is going  on in the Middle East, Europe – and that means the EU and other countries such as the UK, Norway and Switzerland – must remain focused on Ukraine, and in supporting the Ukrainian people in the face of Putin’s aggression. For Europe, Ukraine is an existential issue. The crises in the Middle East only makes the challenge that it presents more complicated, not less serious. Europe has already done a lot, but its efforts are yet not complete. It has provided generous financial support. Its embrace of Ukraine is not complete enough. Top of the agenda is Ukraine’s EU membership. One can always find reasons to delay this process. Many will be valid reasons. But there is one overarching reason why this must happen soon. It will seal Europe’s commitment to Ukraine, and it will fulfill Ukraine’s desire for a European future. Yes, it is a political reason, but Ukraine is first and foremost a political challenge, one that Europe must win. The crises in the Middle East is not a distraction. It is real enough, and will also have huge implications for Europe. But Europe has less tools at its disposal. It does not have the military means to be involved independently. The relationship with the GCC countries is not strong enough. Its influence on Iran is at best modest. Its relationship with both the US and Israel is ambivalent, and evolving. But Europe cannot remain a bystander. What will happen in the Middle East will have consequences – be it in politics, security, energy or economics. Europe must up its diplomatic game in the Middle East. This effort must cut through the established bureaucracies. It must find away of pooling the resources, and knowledge, of the EU member states, EU institutions and non- EU European countries such as the UK. It must find a way of working with key partners like Turkey. This effort must be fast and flexible, and can start with the appointment of a heavyweight at the head of this effort – someone who can talk easily with Merz, Macron, Stammer, Erdogan, von der Leyen and other European leaders. Diplomacy is the only way out of the present Middle East crises. Europe cannot afford to be sidelined in this. It must lead. With Ukraine and the Middle East in turmoil, European resources, and ingenuity, will be stretched to the limit. But Europe does not have a choice. It must engage with both. Differently, but with an equal sense of urgency and purpose.

On Saturday (28 February) the United States and Israel launched a new war, attacking Iran, even though talks between the US and Iran were on-going in Geneva, and Omani mediators thought that an agreement between the two was within reach. In the first engagement of the new war the US and Israel, targeted and killed Ayatollah Khamanei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, and many other Iranian senior officials. The war has raged on for the last few days, and has spread quickly to other countries in the region. It is clear we are at the beginning of something big. This is not a local conflict. It is a conflict with global ramifications, and we are only at the start. It is very difficult to predict the future in such a volatile situation as has emerged since Saturday. There are no simple explanations or solutions. But it is likely that the Islamic Republic will endure. The system may, in order to survive, update itself. This is necessary and overdue. But it will not happen under American and Israeli aerial fire. The Gulf will never be the same again. The relations between Iran and the Gulf countries will be poisoned for a long time. Most GCC countries have the financial cushion to help them pull out of the present crises. But money on this occasion, may not be enough. The war will also impact the Trump administration. This may prove a gamble too far for the American president. But for all three, we are only at the beginning. And this story is only just starting, so in truth, anything can happen. (click the image to read the full Monday Commentary).