South Caucasus

Delays in signing an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement open the prospects that the process may be derailed as a result of domestic politics. Next month, Yerevan will go to the polls to indirectly elect a new mayor. The parliamentary opposition is boycotting the vote, and a large number of voters remain apathetic or undecided, but the vote can still be seen as demonstrative enough ahead of the 2026 national parliamentary elections. In this op-ed for commonspace.eu, Onnik James Krikorian argues that Pashinyan foes are already attempting to turn the 17 September 2023 vote into a ‘referendum’ on Armenia-Azerbaijan talks and former de facto State Minister of Karabakh Ruben Vardanyan has called for the same. If Karabakh does dominate the campaign trail, and if Pashinyan’s Civil Contract can emerge victorious with no major abuse of administrative resources recorded, then there would hardly be any political reason not to sign a peace agreement in the nearest future. But if the government were to lose City Hall as 2025 and 2026 approaches, then that would look even less certain. For now, that does not appear likely, but what happens next month could greatly influence Pashinyan’s options in the weeks, months, and years ahead.

“Religion will play a more effective role in the establishment of peace when we do not offer our believers only religious dialogues or other formal formats, but we call and teach them to firmly adhere to the divine blessing, the doctrines that from time immemorial teach us to love our neighbour, condemn violence and inspire us to be at peace with ourselves and with the world. The role of religion in peacemaking is what it should always have been - to preach love, including of those who are different from us, those who are not like us. There is a lot of material for this kind of teaching in the Caucasus region, and not using it is an important missed resource, especially if we take into account the fact that the vast majority of the population of our countries consider themselves believers.” This was stated by His Grace Metropolitan Grigoli, Archbishop of Poti and Khobi whilst addressing participants of the first South Caucasus Youth Peace Summer School (SCYPSS), which is being held in Kachreti, Georgia from 21-31 August 2023. Metropolitan Grigoli warned that “wounds caused by war and conflict cannot be healed by another war! The power of mind and language is always greater than that of arms, and peace between countries should be built on the peace-loving nature of human being; All paths leading to peace today are expressions of responsible moral consciousness”. At the end of his speech Archbishop Grigoli praised the initiative to hold the first South Caucasus Youth peace Summer School and congratulated participants for their contribution to the work of the School.

The first South Caucasus Youth Peace Summer School (SCYPSS) was officially opened on Monday, 21 August in Kachreti in Georgia. Thirty participants aged between 20 and 29, ten each from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, are attending the event which will last ten days. At the opening session on Monday (21 August), Dr Dennis Sammut, Director of LINKS Europe, Ms Rebecca Lie, Charge d’affaires at the Embassy of Norway in Tbilisi and Gottfried Hanne, Head of the Regional Office of the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus made short remarks during which they highlighted the significance of the school, and the importance of timing during which it is being held. During the opening session participants and guests marked a minute of silence to remember the many young people who died in conflicts in the South Caucasus in the last three and half decades: “We owe it to them to work for peace in the region so that future generations will not have to make the same sacrifice”, Dr Sammut said in his opening remarks. He said that the School was an opportunity for young people from the three countries to reflect on their future, and find ways of building that future together. He said the School was an exercise in sharing ideas and learning from each other’s experiences. Earlier, the School’s Dean of Studies, Dr Maja Vodopovic from Leiden University outlined the topics that will be covered during the ten days of School activity. Guest speakers will also visit the School over this period to deliver lectures and workshops. On 29-30 August, the thirty school participants will join established experts and practitioners from the region and beyond for the first South Caucasus Regional Dialogue Forum.

Thirty young leaders, activists and opinion shapers from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia will participate in the first South Caucasus Youth Peace Summer School (SCYPSS), which will be held in Kachreti Georgia from 21-31 August 2023. SCYPSS is an initiative of LINKS Europe and is organised with the support of the European Union and the Government of Norway. The idea of a South Caucasus Youth Peace Summer School was included in the report "The South Caucasus from war to peace: thirty measures between now and 2030", prepared by the Joint Liaison Group of Armenian and Azerbaijani experts on confidence-building measures in support of lasting peace in the South Caucasus, published in April 2022. A spokesperson for LINKS Europe told commonspace.eu: "The participation of young people from the three countries at this event indicates that there is readiness, despite differences, to meet, share opinions and slowly build trust between different nationalities in the region. SCYPSS is a confidence-building measure at a time when such measures are much needed. LINKS Europe will work with our able international faculty and the participants from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia for the success of the event".

The United Nations Security Council on Wednesday (16 August) met in open-session to discuss the situation around the Lachin Corridor. Azerbaijan has established check points on the corridor and has restricted movement, whilst offering alternative routes to Karabakh going through Azerbaijani territory. Armenia says this is causing a humanitarian crisis. All fifteen members of the Security Council spoke, with many highlighting the need for humanitarian aid to flow unimpeded to Nagorno-Karabakh; most emphasising the importance of territorial integrity, and all calling for progress in the peace negotiations for the region to move on from the current impasse. The meeting ended without the Council taking any decision. commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that there are two important take-aways from Wednesday's meeting: The first, for Azerbaijan, is that, regardless of the fact that Nagorno-Karabakh is recognised as part of Azerbaijan the mood in the international community is one of concern at how Azerbaijan is treating the Armenian community, and will treat it in the future. The handling of the Lachin corridor is by many seen as a test of things to come. Azerbaijan needs a much more nuanced and sophisticated approach on this issue if it is avoid a head on collision with the international community sooner rather than later; The second take-away, for Armenia, is that the international community is currently neither willing, nor probably even able, to put the kind of pressure on Azerbaijan that Armenia expects, and that the solution is progress in the Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations. For the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh the message from many members of the Security Council was clear: talk to Baku. There is a bigger role for the UN Security Council in the future. Any future Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement should be underpinned by a UN Security Council resolution. But we are not there yet.

"Confidence-building measures are a necessary element in any strategy to end conflicts", writes Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. Whilst there have been instances of confidence-building measures in the context of the Karabakh conflict for decades, the post-2020 confidence-building measures differ from the pre-war process. "The participants are more realistic in their expectations and assessments of the situation, understanding that no miracles are possible and that any solution requires painful decisions, especially from the Armenian side. A country cannot lose the war and hope for a solution to satisfy all its expectations and desires. However, this understanding also does not mean that in the post-2020 war period, those Armenians involved in confidence-building measures were ready to accept any solution to the conflict. They seek a difficult balance between being realistic and avoiding putting themselves into “echo-chamber”, situations while not rejecting their core beliefs on the acceptable ways of conflict settlement."

The United Nations Security Council will discuss the situation around Lachin at a meeting in new York on Wednesday, 16 August. The meeting will be open. Under the rules of the United Nations, the Chairmanship of the Security Council moves monthly by rotation in alphabetical order, and this month the Chair is the United States. US diplomacy, with the personal participation of US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, has over the last year been trying to assist Armenia and Azerbaijan to develop a peace treaty between them. Although some progress has been made, there remain several stumbling issues on which both sides are showing intransigence. There is speculation that the United States may use tomorrow's meeting to push for a a quicker pace in the ongoing Armenia-Azerbaijan peace negotiations, and possibly a bigger role for the UN in the issue of the future of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh. This will be fiercely resist by Azerbaijan which is hoping that it friends amongst non-aligned countries will help tone down any criticism of its actions.