South Caucasus

With parliamentary elections in Armenia just over a year away, opposition figures and some analysts are increasingly questioning Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s prospects for re-election. Critics argue that he has failed to fulfil his widely promoted peace agenda and hold him accountable for the exodus of approximately 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the former Soviet-era Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) in late September 2023. They also point to unrealistic campaign promises made during the last parliamentary elections held in 2021, including the pledge to reclaim the strategic hilltop citadel of Shusha and pursue remedial secession for the separatist but now dissolved Karabakh — goals widely seen as unattainable from the outset.

LINKS Europe has successfully completed the first phase of its project to develop the Armenia-Azerbaijan dialogue as part of its commitment within the EU4Peace III programme, funded by the European Union. In this first phase, which lasted from September 2024 to April 2025, LINKS Europe conducted an assessment of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations and mobilised the personnel necessary for delivering the project output. LINKS Europe Foundation is pleased to announce the names of the chairs/co-chairs of the five thematic groups within the initiative.  

A brawl broke out in Armenia’s National Assembly on 22 April after opposition lawmakers proposed new legislation to impose harsher penalties on those who deny or question the 1915 mass killing and deportation of up to 1.5 million Armenians by the then Ottoman Empire — and whether it should be recognised as genocide. The term, coined in the 1940s by Polish lawyer Raphael Lemkin, was partly inspired by the Armenian experience. Armenia already has laws addressing genocide denial, but this new initiative specifically targets anyone and not just those seeking to incite “hatred, discrimination, or violence.” Punishment of up to five years imprisonment would also be increased though the proposed changes are unlikely to pass a parliamentary vote.

The United States and Ukraine have signed a minerals deal after a two-month delay, in what President Donald Trump's administration called a new form of US commitment to Kyiv after the end of military aid. Ukraine said it secured key interests after protracted negotiations, including full sovereignty over its own rare earths, which are vital for new technologies and largely untapped. Trump had initially demanded rights to Ukraine's mineral wealth as compensation for US weapons sent under former president Joe Biden after Russia invaded just over three years ago.

Representatives of non-governmental organisations have issued a joint statement condemning the coordinated searches carried out at the homes of leaders of public foundations.They characterized these actions as “yet another attempt to instil fear and suppress independent civic activity.”

In Armenia tech education starts early. In a typical three-storey state school in the suburbs of Yerevan, the Armenian capital, nine-year old Slavik is demonstrating his invention, a box with three LED lights.  Next to him, 14-year-old Eric and Narek are showing their smart greenhouse model that monitors temperature and controls fans automatically through a mobile app. Other children are enthusiastically showcasing their inventions: games, robots, apps and smart home projects. Eleven-year-old Arakel is holding his cardboard model of a house with a retractable clothesline.

On April 17, 2025, Tbilisi played host to a historic moment, as the foreign ministers of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia convened for the first-ever formal trilateral consultations. The central aim of the parties was to establish a transparent channel for dialogue and explore concrete steps for regional cooperation. The discussions were notably constructive, the parties identified several areas for potential collaboration, and importantly, the meeting set the stage for further talks, with a promise to follow up on the progress made and to develop a more comprehensive roadmap for trilateral cooperation. It was a signal that the political realities of the region are shifting. Now it is important to understand why such cooperation was not possible until now and why it has become possible only today.

Since Armenia gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, normalizing relations with Turkey has been one of the country’s top foreign-policy priorities. The rationale behind this has been both economic, to end the blockade and facilitate access to Turkish Mediterranean ports, and political, to drive a wedge in the Azerbaijan–Turkey strategic partnership. Armenia took steps towards normalization in 2008 and 2009. As a result of intensive negotiations, Armenia and Turkey signed two protocols in Zurich in 2009 to open their borders and establish diplomatic relations. However, Turkey did not ratify them, under intense pressure from Azerbaijan.

The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s (OSCE) Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioğlu is in Tbilisi this week, in his first visit since the October parliamentary elections widely seen as flawed. The OSCE/ODIHR’s own observer mission had criticised the government’s handling of the October 2024 elections. On Wednesday, Sinirlioğlu met with the Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze.