Geneva summit: high stakes, low expectations

President Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia and President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan are expected to meet in Geneva on Monday (16 October) in the latest effort to start the process of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The two presidents met last time in June 2016 in St Petersburg in a meeting that was brokered by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin, Sargsyan and Aliyev last week were all in Sochi attending the summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States, but no trilateral meeting was reported.

The Geneva summit has been prepared with the assistance of the diplomats from France, Russia and the United States who co-Chair the OSCE Minsk Process that since 1992 has been mandated by the international community to mediate between the sides in the conflict. Despite a cease fire agreed in 1994 the two sides regularly engage in low-intensity hostilities. Hundreds of military personnel and civilians on both sides have been killed since the cease fire came into effect.

Commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that the stakes on the success of tomorrow's meeting are high. "With the two sides now possessing very sophisticated weaponary, most of it supplied by Russia, a resumption of fighting will throw the region into havoc. The events in April 2016, when an upsurge in fighting led to many casualties on both sides, was just a taster of what might happen. Despite the fact that the international community is distracted by even larger dangers in East Asia, the Middle East and Africa, the Karabakh conflict remains a matter of concern way beyond the region. The meeting between the two presidents will be a welcome sign that the two sides are ready to re-engage in the negotiations that are necessary if the conflict is to be resolved. However, expectations, in the region and beyond, are low. The two presidents have met more than a dozen times since 2008, on each ocassion raising hopes momentarily of a breakthrough. But lack of follow-up on decisions taken always allowed the situation to slide back to an even lower point than before. Given that there is a sense that time is now running out, and that the status quo is now not only no longer acceptable, but also no longer tenable, this summit may prove to be the last chance Aliyev and Sargsyan have to make their mark on history through a peaceful breakthrough."

related content: Baku and Yerevan give different spins to St Petersburg Summit

souce: commonspace.eu with agencies

photo: President Aliyev and president Sargsyan at an earlier summit (archive picture)

Related articles

Editor's choice
News
Council of Europe launches new International Claims Commission for Ukraine

Council of Europe launches new International Claims Commission for Ukraine

Thirty-four countries and the European Union have signed a new convention establishing an International Claims Commission for Ukraine at a diplomatic conference co-hosted by the 46-nation Council of Europe and the Netherlands in the Hague. The diplomatic conference was attended by leaders and high-level representatives from over 50 states, including the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of the Republic of Moldova, Maia Sandu, and the Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Dick Schoof.  “Today marks a major step forward in ensuring accountability for Ukraine. The International Claims Commission represents justice and hope for tens of thousands of victims—our determination that those who have suffered will not be forgotten. I call for quick ratifications so we can get the commission rapidly up and running for the people of Ukraine,” said Council of Europe Secretary General Alain Berset. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “We expect that every mechanism for compensation from the Register of Damage and Claims Commission to the actual payments – will start working and receive strong and sufficient international support, so that people can truly feel that any kind of damage caused by the war can be compensated. This war, and Russia’s responsibility for it, MUST become a clear example – so that others learn not to choose aggression.” “Accountability is about creating the conditions for peace that endures. And therefore, accountability is a condition of security – today and for the future. But accountability is not only about Ukraine. And it is not only about one aggressor and one victim. Accountability is about Europe. About every country in Europe. It is about whether Europe, as a whole, is willing to defend its peace,” said Maia Sandu, President of the Republic of Moldova, which currently holds the Presidency of the Council of Europe’s Committee of Ministers. The Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Dick Schoof, said: “Every day Russia is deliberately bombarding homes, destroying businesses and damaging infrastructure in Ukraine. Russia must compensate Ukraine for the damage caused. That is why we have launched the International Claims Commission for Ukraine and we are honoured to host it.” The International Claims Commission will be the second part of a comprehensive compensation mechanism related to Russia’s war of aggression, building on the existing Register of Damage for Ukraine. The claims commission will be established within the framework of the Council of Europe and will also be open to other countries. The Register of Damage for Ukraine, created in 2023, collects and records compensation claims submitted by individuals, organisations and public bodies in Ukraine. Forty-four states and the European Union have so far joined the Register, which has already received 86,000 claims. The International Claims Commission will review, assess and decide upon claims submitted to the Register of Damage for Ukraine and determine the amount of compensation, if any, which is due in each case. The convention establishing the commission will enter into force once it has been ratified by 25 signatories, as long as sufficient funds have been secured to support its initial work.

Popular

Editor's choice
News
Council of Europe launches new International Claims Commission for Ukraine

Council of Europe launches new International Claims Commission for Ukraine

Thirty-four countries and the European Union have signed a new convention establishing an International Claims Commission for Ukraine at a diplomatic conference co-hosted by the 46-nation Council of Europe and the Netherlands in the Hague. The diplomatic conference was attended by leaders and high-level representatives from over 50 states, including the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of the Republic of Moldova, Maia Sandu, and the Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Dick Schoof.  “Today marks a major step forward in ensuring accountability for Ukraine. The International Claims Commission represents justice and hope for tens of thousands of victims—our determination that those who have suffered will not be forgotten. I call for quick ratifications so we can get the commission rapidly up and running for the people of Ukraine,” said Council of Europe Secretary General Alain Berset. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “We expect that every mechanism for compensation from the Register of Damage and Claims Commission to the actual payments – will start working and receive strong and sufficient international support, so that people can truly feel that any kind of damage caused by the war can be compensated. This war, and Russia’s responsibility for it, MUST become a clear example – so that others learn not to choose aggression.” “Accountability is about creating the conditions for peace that endures. And therefore, accountability is a condition of security – today and for the future. But accountability is not only about Ukraine. And it is not only about one aggressor and one victim. Accountability is about Europe. About every country in Europe. It is about whether Europe, as a whole, is willing to defend its peace,” said Maia Sandu, President of the Republic of Moldova, which currently holds the Presidency of the Council of Europe’s Committee of Ministers. The Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Dick Schoof, said: “Every day Russia is deliberately bombarding homes, destroying businesses and damaging infrastructure in Ukraine. Russia must compensate Ukraine for the damage caused. That is why we have launched the International Claims Commission for Ukraine and we are honoured to host it.” The International Claims Commission will be the second part of a comprehensive compensation mechanism related to Russia’s war of aggression, building on the existing Register of Damage for Ukraine. The claims commission will be established within the framework of the Council of Europe and will also be open to other countries. The Register of Damage for Ukraine, created in 2023, collects and records compensation claims submitted by individuals, organisations and public bodies in Ukraine. Forty-four states and the European Union have so far joined the Register, which has already received 86,000 claims. The International Claims Commission will review, assess and decide upon claims submitted to the Register of Damage for Ukraine and determine the amount of compensation, if any, which is due in each case. The convention establishing the commission will enter into force once it has been ratified by 25 signatories, as long as sufficient funds have been secured to support its initial work.