Yerevan, November 23. ArmInfo.
"The re-election of President Obama means that we will see no dramatic, short-term shifts in US policy towards the South Caucasus," Jeff Sahadeo, a director of the Institute of European, Russian and Eurasian Studies at Carleton University, told TURAN's Washington correspondent.
Sadaheo thinks that the events in the Middle East, with the current flare-up in Gaza and the Syrian and Libyan issues, will preoccupy the administration's foreign policy, and of course the Afghanistan withdrawal will play a large role.
"The administration will continue efforts to find a solution to Nagorno-Karabakh, but it is unlikely they will bring anything new to the table, perhaps at best pressing the interested parties to do so.
I don't think Washington has ever really taken the initiative, beyond encouraging dialogue through the Minsk process and other avenues, and I am not sure that there is that much more that it can do at this point. In terms of Nagorno-Karabakh, neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan has indicated a significant will to take discussions in a new direction. For the Turkey-Armenian rapprochement, I am sure the last thing Washington wants to do is get entangled in a delicate situation when there are clear political risks at stake. Any change that will come in these issues will come from the states themselves; if any bold initiatives are produced, then that will increase the pressure on the US administration to get involved," he said. As for the US-Azerbaijan relations, the analyst said that growth in domestic production of gas and oil means that the US might be slightly less interested in Azerbaijan (and pipeline networks, especially for natural gas) for these reasons, but it remains critical in terms of logistical support to Afghanistan, and, in my mind, could become extremely important as the United States tries to deal with Iran.
"Human Rights is always a fungible issue in US politics, one that guides visions but often gets lost when it comes down to complicated geostrategic negotiations. I think in terms of the region the US government believes that lecturing about human rights can be counterproductive, but it does affect their overall views of a country. Rightly or wrongly, Azerbaijan is seen as the country that has the worst record on human rights and democracy... To the extent that the US public knows anything about Azerbaijan, it is generally lumped in with former Soviet states that have followed authoritarian patrimonial regimes. Many western scholars who have tried to work in the country have found access to documents and long-term visas difficult. If the Azerbaijani government wants to improve its image, in order for example to improve tourism and relationships with the West, concrete, specific steps towards greater pluralism will be helpful," Sadaheo said.
