In the second in a series of three articles for commonspace.eu analysing the results of the Eastern Partnership Summit held in Riga last week and its impact on the three South Caucasus countries, Dennis Sammut focuses on relations between Georgia and the European Union.
When one talks about Georgia-EU relations these days one occasionally hears that there is "Georgia fatigue" in Brussels, with some arguing that far too much time and resources are spent on this relatively small country. In Tbilisi on the other hand, one is often told that people are tired of waiting for EU promises, such as visa liberalisation, to materialise. This does not mean that either or both sides in this relationship lack the energy to take it forward, but it does highlight the fact that stamina is going to be required in both Brussels and Tbilisi in order to ensure that the ambitious course on which both sides have embarked is successful.
The signing of the Association Agreement with the European in 2013 was for Georgia a landmark moment in its history. The aspiration to be a part of the European family runs deep amongst most Georgians, and for a better understanding of it one needs to look much further back than contemporary politics. Georgia's Former Prime Minister, Zhurab Zhvania, described it best when he addressed the Council of Europe in January 1999: "I am Georgian", he said, "therefore I am European".
Until recently Georgia was a damaged country - its society distorted by Communism, its post-soviet institutions feeble, its economy rattled by conflict and corruption, and its independence continuously threatened by Russia. While many problems remain, yet Georgia has turned the corner, and this is partly due to the support that the European Union has provided in different forms over the last two decades, and partly to the fact that Georgia's leaders - from Shevardnadze to Saakashvili to Ivanishvili were consistent in saying that Europe was Georgia's choice, and that this was not open for speculation. In this they were reflecting Georgian opinion. However, translating this abstract concept into a meaningful relationship between Georgia and the European Union in the 21st century is a complex process.
Yet for the first time, thanks to the Association Agreement, this aspiration can now be translated into something tangible through a well mapped out programme of reforms and co-operation in multiple sectors. In Riga it was made clear that EU membership was not at present on the agenda for Georgia, as well as for the two other aspirants, Moldova and Ukraine. European Commission President Jean Claude Junker could not have been blunter when he told journalists on the first day of the summit, "They are not ready, we are not ready, and now is not the time". A membership perspective in Riga was never on the cards, and it was only those who had built up hopes on false expectations that got disappointed.
But for Georgia the Riga summit was very important in other ways. The message from the European institutions, and the member states, was let's work together to make the Association agreement implementation a success. Indeed nothing will help Georgia's long term aspirations for full EU membership more than if it is able to successfully implement the ambitious one thousand page Agreement that it has signed with the EU in Vilnius. This is going to require considerable commitment - and yes of course a lot of stamina - by both sides.
All the ingredients are there for Georgia to reap benefits from its Association relationship with the EU reasonably quickly. Mentoring countries through difficult transition periods is a skill that Brussels has acquired thanks to the large expansion of the European Union eastwards eleven years ago. EU officials say that they are already finding that Georgia is an eager partner, and the government of Prime Minister Garibashvili fully committed to seeing through the measures that are necessary. But the European Commission must never forget that this process is political, as much as it is technical. The main danger for the process is if the present consensus on this issue in the Georgian Parliament is somehow compromised. This can happen in more than one way, and as new elections approach the temptation for political opportunism will increase.
Over the last weeks there has been some speculation, fuelled by opinion polls, that Georgians were becoming increasingly cynical about relations with the west in general, and with the EU in particular. Whilst perhaps too much has been made of these polls, the wider message is important. In Georgia, as in other democratic societies public opinion is ficklish. It is therefore important that Georgians see some early tangible results from their new relationship with the EU in the short term.
Here is where the Riga Summit disappointed. There had been hopes that at the summit the issue of visa free travel for Georgians could have been decided. It wasn't. The political will is there, we were, told, but there remain some technical issues. Both sides need now to put extra effort to try to ensure that any remaining issues are resolved by the end of this year, and for the formal process to kick off in 2016.
Part of the problem of choreographed political jamborees, as the Eastern partnership Summits, is that participants expect to leave with something they can show to their audience and constituents back home. Giving something to everybody, in a situation where the six EaP countries have so very different arrangements with the EU, clearly does not work. This tension between a multilateral approach and a differentiated bilateral approach was already obvious in Vilnius in 2013, and became even more acute in Riga. In future, if the EU wants to persist with these summits, it must at least rethink the way that they are choreographed in order to show that differentiation is not simply a slogan.
Both Georgia and the EU are determined to make the Association Agreement a success. The extent to which they are able to do that will determine their future relations. That was the clear message from the Riga summit. The political will is there, but there is no room for complacency on either side as they pursue this objective.
In the second in a series of three articles for commonspace.eu, Dennis Sammut looks at Georgia's relations with the European Union in the aftermath of the Riga Summit.
You can read the first article, "Armenia-EU relations: back to the drawing board" here. The third article, "Azerbaijan-EU relations: a tangled tale" will be published on commonspace.eu on Wednesday 27 May
Dennis Sammut is the Director of LINKS (Dialogue, Analysis and Research). He may be contacted at dennis@links-dar.org.
Photo: Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili flanked by the leaders of France and Germany at the Eastern Partnership Summit in Riga on 22 May 2015.
