Diplomacy

As diplomatic efforts to resolve the long-running conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan once again make headlines, the real challenge lies not in high-level meetings or momentary gestures, but in the unfortunate disconnect between the elites and the populations they represent. For almost thirty years, press release after press release declared that talks inched towards peace. Hopes were premature. The sides will next month mark the anniversary of the last war fought five years ago.

US President Donald Trump's administration is actively discussing with Azerbaijan the possibility of bringing that nation and some Central Asian allies into the Abraham Accords, hoping to deepen their existing ties with Israel, according to five sources with knowledge of the matter who spoke to Reuters. As part of the Abraham Accords, inked in 2020 and 2021 during Trump's first term in office, four Muslim-majority countries agreed to normalise diplomatic relations with Israel after U.S. mediation.

Azerbaijan and Armenia are expected to sign a memorandum of understanding in Washington on Friday 8 August, committing to the pursuit of peace, according to regional sources who spoke to Middle East Eye (MEE). The move commits the two countries to a future peace deal amid increasing US influence in the South Caucasus. The sources said that US President Donald Trump will host Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the White House for the signing ceremony.

Beijing’s special envoy for the Horn of Africa, Xue Bing, told a regional conference attended by eight governments from the region that ‘all parties should engage in dialogue’ to achieve common prosperity. In the meeting China reaffirmed its support for peaceful development in the Horn of Africa, saying it would “actively engage” in regional initiatives to promote the concept. But analysts and observers are very skeptical. Whilst China might dabble with the region and its many problems, it ability to impact the situation, and particularly contribute to resolving the conflicts that plague the region is minimal. In his speech at the Kampala Conference, Xue said Beijing would offer military assistance and training, as well as helping to develop the region’s infrastructure and boosting trade. “The world today faces overlapping risks and challenges that threaten peace and development in the Horn of Africa, and all parties should engage in dialogue and cooperation to maintain universal security and achieve common prosperity,” Xue told the event, according to the Chinese foreign ministry. Xue outlined further areas of cooperation, including counterterrorism and landmine eradication, while stressing China’s support for “African-led solutions” through platforms such as the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development.

"Saudi diplomacy has achieved in 18 months what half a century of summitry and rhetoric failed to deliver'' writes Ali Shihabi in the influential Saudi newspaper, Arab News. "Over the past 18 months, Riyadh has quietly delivered a masterclass in diplomacy, steadily reshaping how Western capitals approach the Palestinian file", the writer says. "The Kingdom has pursued a strategy rooted in hard-nosed pragmatism: Washington’s strategic umbrella over Israel will not fold under fiery speeches or social media storms. Rather than waste energy on theatrics, Saudi Arabia has opted for a patient, cumulative approach — chipping away at Israel’s aura of effortless Western legitimacy until the political calculus inside G7 capitals begins to shift. It may feel slow to the impatient observer, but in a world that rewards persistence over noise, this is how real influence is built." We republish the article in full here.

In July 2025, Armenia officially applied to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), marking a significant step, underscoring its commitment to a diversified foreign policy amidst shifting regional dynamics. In this analysis, Johnny Melikian, Senior Research Fellow at Orbelli Centre in Yerevan, discusses the reasons behind Armenia's move. This application is more than a simple institutional maneuver, he argues; “it encapsulates Yerevan’s strategic search for geopolitical stability, economic partnerships, and regional relevance in an increasingly complex Eurasian theater.” As Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed during a press conference on July 16, the move reflects Armenia’s pursuit of a balanced and balancing foreign policy amidst shifting global and regional dynamics.

Uncertainty has again emerged along the Armenia-Iran border as the risk of the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan turning into further geopolitical competition continues. What was once a post-war localised disagreement over territory and sovereignty is now entangled in a web of regional interests and strategic manoeuvring. Increasingly, peace risks being shaped less by the needs of local populations but more by the calculations of distant capitals. External interference has rather delayed progress almost five years since the 2020 war. If peace is the objective, then the region needs inclusive not selective diplomacy and definitely not new geopolitical fault lines.

A Syrian-Israeli ministerial meeting is taking place on Thursday 31 July in Baku to discuss security matters in southern Syria, a diplomat told AFP. The meeting between Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer follows a similar meeting between the two ministers in Paris last week. It will take place after an unprecedented visit by al-Shaibani to Moscow on Thursday, added the diplomat, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. Israel and Syria have technically been at war since 1948.