Conflict and Peace

Speaking to media on the sidelines of the Global Baku Forum, Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov unexpectedly announced that the text of the Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan had been finalised. Made up of 17 points, two of which had not until now been agreed, the news came like a bolt out of the blue. As was already known, those last points concerned withdrawing international court cases against each other and not deploying third country forces on their common border.

Mozambique and Georgia have held elections on the 9th of October and 26th of October 2024 respectively. Despite the high demand for change in the political status quo, the incumbent parties in both countries – the Frente de Libertacao de Mocambique (FREMILO) and the Georgian Dream – have been elected again pushing civil society organisation to call out flawed elections.  Both countries have been plunged into protests ever since.

A court in Georgia on Wednesday convicted imprisoned former president Mikheil Saakashvili on embezzlement charges and handed him another prison term of nine years. Saakashvili, who served as Georgia’s president in 2004-13, is already serving a six-year prison term for abuse of power. He was convicted in absentia in 2018, and arrested in 2021 upon his return to Georgia.

Upon visiting Karabakh in 1994, there were two possible routes for my return to Yerevan. The first was the same way I arrived by military helicopter, and the second was by road. With no highway in place at the time, that would take longer and prove more challenging. Even if the helicopter on the way to Karabakh had to perform an evasive manoeuvre when the pilot was informed of Azerbaijani activity in the area, it was by far the quickest and made the journey in under 45 minutes rather than an estimated 12 hours by road. I had spent less than three hours in Yerevan upon arrival from London and over a week in Karabakh. A few days would barely be enough for meetings with Vazgen Sargsyan in Yerevan and the Locum Tenens Catholicos in Etchmiadzin. I also had to meet Seta Melkonian, recently widowed wife of Monte, and two local journalists reporting on the conflict.

Prominent Azerbaijani opposition politician Tofig Yagublu has been sentenced to nine years in prison by the Baku Serious Crimes Court on charges of “fraud resulting in substantial harm”. A member of the National Council of Democrat Forces and Musavat Party, he was arrested in December 2023 and was also charged with using forged documents. During the trial, Yagublu insisted his arrest was politically motivated. His co-defendant, Elnur Mamedov, who provided incriminating testimony, was sentenced to eight years in prison.

Mali said it was suspending licenses for foreign artisanal gold mining companies after a series of fatal accidents in the West African country, one of Africa’s top three gold producers. Gen. Assimi Goita, president of Mali’s transitional government, ordered “the suspension of artisanal mining permits granted to foreigners,” according to a statement issued following a Council of Ministers meeting which was read out on the national television station ORTM.

Chaos broke out in Romania’s capital Sunday evening as incensed supporters of the far-right populist Calin Georgescu protested the electoral body’s decision to reject his candidacy in a presidential election rerun. He won the first round of last year’s race before a top court annulled the election. The 62-year-old Georgescu filed his candidacy on Friday in the capital, Bucharest. The Central Election Bureau, also known by its Romanian acronym BEC, had 48 hours to register or reject it.

Even though many believed a second Trump presidency was unlikely or even impossible, his re-election last November demonstrated how many people prefer to favour dreams over reality, transforming fears into self-fulfilling prophecies. This is a situation that can best describe how Track II diplomacy in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict has been conducted over time. As a result, there is little to no agreement between the sides, the blatantly obvious is ignored, and meetings become performative at best or simply a continuation of the conflict at worst.

European Union leaders agreed to significantly boost defense spending to ensure Europe’s security and voiced near-unanimous support for Ukraine at an extraordinary meeting on Thursday, after the United States dramatically pulled back its assistance to the continent in a historic upending of transatlantic relations. At the summit in Brussels, 26 European leaders signed a text calling for a peace deal that respects “Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity,” while including Ukraine in the negotiations. Hungary abstained.