South Caucasus

For weeks, expectations were built up that a summit between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, hosted by European Council president, Charles Michel, French President Emanuel Macron and German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, scheduled on the margins of the meeting of the European Political Community in Granada, Spain on 5 October, will give a stimulus to the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. Just a day before, however, Azerbaijan announced that President Ilham Aliyev will not attend. What could have been agreed in Granada? Speaking in the Armenian parliament on 4 October, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan outlined the points of a document that he said he had hoped could have been signed in Granada the next day had the Azerbaijani leader not cancelled his visit, but which he still felt could be signed at an opportune moment. Pashinyan outlined the three principles as: 1. Armenia and Azerbaijan recognize each other’s territorial integrity, based on the understanding that Armenia territory is 29800 square km while Azerbaijan territory is 86600 square km; 2. The Alma Ata declaration should be the political basis for border delimitation and later demarcation. It is important that before delimitation is made, agreement is reached on which maps delimitation and demarcation will be based on. This should be implemented based on the maps of 1975, but in principle, we may be flexible on this;   3. Restoration of communications of the region should take place based on the principles of sovereignty, laws, equality, and reciprocity of the countries.  

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, speaking at prime minister's question time in the Armenian parliament on Wednesday (4 October), said that a document now exists which he was ready to sign, that was consistent with the logic of peace and stability in the region. Pashinyan said that he does not want to create a false impression that the document is against the interests of Azerbaijan and completely compatible with the interests of Armenia. "Armenia hopes that the conceptual document will be signed at an opportune moment. I am ready to sign it," he said. Earlier, the prime minister said that he had hoped that the document could have been signed in Granada on the margins of the European Political Community Summit on Thursday (5 October). It now transpires however that Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev has refused to attend the summit. Pashinyan said he will attend the summit nonetheless. commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that it is clear that there is now broad agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan on at least a general document, which the Armenian prime minister called a "Conceptual Document", which may be the basis for a future, more comprehensive peace treaty. But all the sides are aware of broader sensitivities, and it seems that Russian pressure on Aliyev made him miss an important opportunity to take the peace process forward by signing the document in Granada this week. This is a highly risky gamble since circumstances can change very fast. One therefore hopes that the "opportune moment" mentioned by prime minister Pashinyan will come within days, not weeks.

On the eve of the expected meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Granada on Thursday (5 October), on the margins of the gathering of the European Political Community, Brussels' leading think tank, the European Policy Centre, has published a commentary by commonspace.eu Managing Editor and Director of LINKS Europe, Dr Dennis Sammut on the prospects of the EU's initiative to bring lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He argues that "the exodus of 100,000 Armenians from Karabakh following the recent Azerbaijani military operation has focused minds. However, as it pursues its peace initiative with Armenia and Azerbaijan, the EU’s primary objective is to get both sides to sign a peace agreement. Going forward, the EU needs to adopt a regional approach as the core of its engagement with the South Caucasus." Given the speed of changes on the ground, there is a risk that the EU peace initiative may run out of steam or become irrelevant since, at this point, Armenia-Azerbaijan relations can take different trajectories. Granada offers the last opportunity for a substantial peace agreement that would, at last, turn the page on an ugly chapter of modern South Caucasus history. It is unlikely that a substantial deal can be signed yet. Still, in Granada, it should become quite clear whether the conditions exist to overcome the final obstacles, with the sides formally recognising each other’s territorial integrity based on the borders stated in the 1991 Almati Declaration, and, eventually, by establishing full diplomatic relations. The EU needs to be strategic in its vision and focused on its approach. Getting an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal agreed and signed by the end of the year must now be the priority.

The Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Ali Akbar Ahmadian, underscored Tehran's firm opposition to geopolitical changes in the region, and warned that any border change will bring about instability and insecurity and aggravate crises. Ahmadian made the comments in a Sunday meeting with Secretary of the National Security Council of Armenia, Armen Grigoryan, in Tehran. The Iranian official pointed to the latest developments in the Caucasus region, and called on all parties to help establish peace in the region. The Iranian FARS news agency said that Ahmadian reaffirmed Iran's principled and unchanging policy on developing relations and interaction with the neighboring states and creating a region free of conflict. "Frank and constructive dialogue among regional countries will prepare the ground for [improving] sustainable security, balanced development and prosperity of the nations in the region," the SNSC secretary stated. Ahmadian voiced Iran's readiness to arrange a meeting among the regional states.

A United Nations mission has arrived in Karabakh, the first visit in thirty years. This is the first international mission to visit Karabakh since the 19 September Azerbaijani military operation and the capitualtion of the Armenian forces. In the last week a hundred thousand Armenian - nealy all the population of the territory - has departed for Armenia. The United Nations Mission, headed by the UN Resident Co-ordinator in Baku, and including representatives of various UN agencies passed through Aghdam in the morning and moved in the direction of Askeran-Khankendi. The purpose of the mission is to familiarize with the situation on the ground and to determine the humanitarian needs of the residents. Announcing the mission last Friday in New York,  UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the mission will be led by a senior official of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Ramesh Rajasingam, and the UN Resident Coordinator in Azerbaijan, Vladanka Andreeva. The mission will also include an OSHA (occupational safety and health and risk management) technical team and representatives from UN agencies. Dujarric said “the mission will enter the region from the territories of Azerbaijan. The team will try to assess the situation on the ground and determine the humanitarian needs of people on both sides. The UN has not been to the region for 30 years ", and such a visit will be organized for the first time. The mission will operate in the region for at least 10 days."

Azerbaijan's destruction by force of the self-declared Nagorno Karabakh Republic is seen by some as removing one of the key obstacles in the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, that will resume in the next days in Granada, Spain. Others however see the elimination of the Karabakh factor as opening the way for Azerbaijan to make even more demands on Armenia, writes Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. "It is challenging to assess whether peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is within reach. However, one thing is clear: the second humiliation of Armenia within three years has already triggered significant backlash among Armenians. Many are still in shock, which is why Yerevan witnessed only small protests recently. However, many Armenians are fed up with permanent losses, and there is a growing feeling that Armenia, in the long–term perspective, should become stronger to reclaim its position in the region. In the current environment, any attack of Azerbaijan against Armenia, regardless of pretexts or reasons, will only strengthen this feeling among Armenians and will be a direct path to long-term instability and conflicts in the South Caucasus", he argues.

The dramatic events of the last days in Karabakh brought to a climax decades of political crisis, confrontation and war that, since 1989, has resulted in tens of thousands of people dead, even more, injured, and hundreds of thousands of refugees and displaced people. Armenians and Azerbaijanis fought a war in the early 1990s that resulted in an Armenian victory, and another one in 2020, that resulted in an Armenian defeat. In between, and since, there were many skirmishes, and untold animosity that expressed itself in all sorts of ways. The Karabakh conflict has destabilised the entire South Caucasus region, preventing regional cooperation, frustrating economic development and exposing the region to the manipulation of outside forces. On 19 September, Azerbaijan appeared to finally put an end to the problem through a short but sharp military operation that essentially wiped out the military capability of the Karabakh Armenians. Yet again hundreds died on both sides, and the world is now watching the latest wave of South Caucasus refugees on the move, as almost the entire Armenian population of Karabakh seeks refugee in Armenia. Many consider that the problem has not been resolved – it has simply changed. To understand why events unfolded as they did, and why efforts over decades by the world’s leading countries and statesmen failed to find a solution to this problem it is essential to understand that Karabakh is not one issue, but three: each with its own narrative, and quite persuasive justification. The big question however remains, will there be Armenians living in Karabakh going forward, and under what conditions? Conditions need to be created for Karabakh to become a multi-ethnic community within Azerbaijan. Its specific Armenian linguistic and cultural characteristics should be preserved. All those displaced since 1989 should have a right to return to build together this community. The onus now depends on Azerbaijan to create the right conditions for this to happen, and they will be well-advised to work with credible international partners in doing so. Karabakh is never going to be peaceful, and it is never going to be complete, until its Armenian and Azerbaijani populations are back and living together in peace and prosperity.