PLAN B: IS FORCE A SOLUTION FOR RESOLVING THE KARABAKH CONFLICT?

IS FORCE A SOLUTION FOR RESOLVING THE KARABAKH CONFLICT?

Two developments in the last few days left an air of uncertainty and discomfort in international quarters. First in Kazan on Friday,24 June, the long heralded summit between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan with the president of Russia failed to achieve a breakthrough in the negotiations. The sides blamed each other, the international community expressed disappointment , and the OSCE co-Chair prepared for another round of shuttle diplomacy.

Two days later, Baku saw the biggest military parade in the history of independent Azerbaijan. Elements of the Army, Navy and Air force displayed some of the hardware that has been bought at great expense in recent years. Baku has been on a military shopping spree, with the military budget this year exceeding  USD 1.2 billion. On paper, the Armenian Military budget is more modest. But given the opaqueness in the arrangements between the Armenian Armed forces and the Russian forces based in Armenia, the Armenian figures may not be telling the whole story. Both sides talk peace most of the time, and they talk war sometimes.

Some experts have taken to drawing up doomsday scenarios - an Azerbaijani lightning strike to liberate its territories, or an Armenian pre-emptive strike to neutralise any Azerbaijani threat. Both scenarios are of course possible and the rhetoric coming out from Baku and Yerevan fuels this speculation.

Both scenarios however, in the unlikely event that they will happen will not lead to a solution.

A renewed conflict is likely to be long and messy, and will result in turning the problem into a new format but not a solution. Luckily Armenia and Azerbaijan are ruled by calm people who calculate well before any move.  That is why they have up to now opted for negotiations.

But the failure to achieve even modest progress in the negotiations is putting a lot of stress on the fragile cease fire on the line of contact where thousands of soldiers from both sides face each other in World War 1 trench conditions. Both sides report daily breaches of the cease fire, and claim casualties.

Strengthening the cease fire and strengthening the international monitoring of its compliance has now become a priority to give the negotiations more time. However the cease fire must not become an end in itself.

Patience is a virtue in conflict resolution, but senseless procrastination is not. The doomsday scenarios cannot be postponed for ever.

Prepared by commonspace.eu editorial team

Photo: Military parade in Baku on 26 June 2011

(photo courtesy of news.az)

 

Related articles

Editor's choice
News
Borrell tells the European Parliament that the situation in Afghanistan was critical, but the EU will remain engaged

Borrell tells the European Parliament that the situation in Afghanistan was critical, but the EU will remain engaged

Borrell underlined that the European Union will make every effort to support the peace process and to remain a committed partner to the Afghan people. "Of course, we will have to take into account the evolving situation, but disengagement is not an option.  We are clear on that: there is no alternative to a negotiated political settlement, through inclusive peace talks.
Editor's choice
News
Dunya Mijatovic: "Entrenched harmful stereotypes and prejudice against LGBTI people still prevail in segments of Georgian society, including some politicians"

Dunya Mijatovic: "Entrenched harmful stereotypes and prejudice against LGBTI people still prevail in segments of Georgian society, including some politicians"

On March 27, the Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights, Dunja Mijatović, issued a statement calling on the Georgian government to “fully respect” its human rights obligations as a Council of Europe member state, “including with regard to the protection of the human rights of LGBTI people,” in response to the ruling party’s initiation of two draft constitutional laws on “family values and the protection of minors.” “I am concerned about the present political discourse in Georgia, as illustrated by the announcement made by the Georgian Dream Party of their initiative to amend the Constitution and to adopt a new constitutional law on ‘Protection of Family Values and Underaged Persons’. It is reflective of entrenched harmful stereotypes and prejudice against LGBTI people which still prevail in segments of Georgian society, including some politicians, and is capable of having a strong, negative impact on the human rights, safety and well-being of LGBTI people and defenders of their rights. It also represents the political manipulation of LGBTI-phobia in the run-up to elections, which I have previously condemned, and which should have no place in a democratic society, based on the rule of law and respect for human rights of everyone.

Popular

Editor's choice
News
Dunya Mijatovic: "Entrenched harmful stereotypes and prejudice against LGBTI people still prevail in segments of Georgian society, including some politicians"

Dunya Mijatovic: "Entrenched harmful stereotypes and prejudice against LGBTI people still prevail in segments of Georgian society, including some politicians"

On March 27, the Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights, Dunja Mijatović, issued a statement calling on the Georgian government to “fully respect” its human rights obligations as a Council of Europe member state, “including with regard to the protection of the human rights of LGBTI people,” in response to the ruling party’s initiation of two draft constitutional laws on “family values and the protection of minors.” “I am concerned about the present political discourse in Georgia, as illustrated by the announcement made by the Georgian Dream Party of their initiative to amend the Constitution and to adopt a new constitutional law on ‘Protection of Family Values and Underaged Persons’. It is reflective of entrenched harmful stereotypes and prejudice against LGBTI people which still prevail in segments of Georgian society, including some politicians, and is capable of having a strong, negative impact on the human rights, safety and well-being of LGBTI people and defenders of their rights. It also represents the political manipulation of LGBTI-phobia in the run-up to elections, which I have previously condemned, and which should have no place in a democratic society, based on the rule of law and respect for human rights of everyone.