"The EU cannot afford to overlook the strategic importance of the South Caucasus", writes Simona Scotti in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. "If on the one hand over the past two years significant steps have been undertaken, including the deployment of the EUMA in Armenia and the Brussels track of negotiations led by Charles Michel, on the other hand some more concrete actions, with a well-defined and consistent strategy, would be appreciated. The lack of a clear and coherent vision has destabilized Armenia and Azerbaijan, which have often questioned to which extent they can really trust a Western involvement in the region."
On February 16th-18th, the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia held meetings in the framework of the annual Munich Security Conference. The gathering held specific importance, marking the first face-to-face meeting between Mr Aliyev and Mr Pashinyan since September 2023’s hostilities. The two leaders engaged in one-on-one talks after attending a trilateral meeting hosted by the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Then, at the end of February, Germany once again took center stage as the backdrop for a renewed engagement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of both countries met in Berlin and engaged in discussions on the prospect of a peace treaty, both in a bilateral format and with Annalena Baerbock, the Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs of Germany.
These eagerly anticipated discussions solidified Germany's emergence as a pivotal venue for diplomatic dialogue between Baku and Yerevan. While Germany has previously maintained a relatively subdued role in facilitating peace negotiations between the two countries, its latest diplomatic efforts have positioned it to be a potential replacement of France as the major EU country in the context of the Armenia-Azerbaijan mediation. This shift offers a less controversial alternative to French mediation, particularly in light of Azerbaijan's reservations regarding Paris' close ties to Yerevan, including recent military supply announcements, which makes France a biased third party in the eyes of Baku.
Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz initiated a new chapter in Germany's foreign policy and its approach towards the security challenges at the EU’s Eastern borders, a transformation that was articulated in his Zeitenwende op-ed in Foreign Affairs. The current events seem to represent the perfect opportunity for Berlin to assume a leading role and launch a proactive diplomatic effort. Germany's significant economic and political influence, along with the good relations it maintains with both countries and its reputation for adopting a balanced position, make it an ideal choice for facilitating, and even co-leading, the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan. For Azerbaijan the evolving dynamics present a promising opportunity to strategically engage with the EU while pushing France aside. This scenario would allow Baku to cultivate stronger ties with Germany while solidifying its position within the European sphere. At the same time, while Yerevan reshapes its foreign alliances, Berlin's support would be particularly advantageous, as it would provide the diplomatic leverage needed for Armenia to strengthen its ties with Western partners.
The peace negotiations between Aliyev and Pashinyan reached a stalemate in late September 2023, when Azerbaijan initiated an operation to establish full control over Karabakh. Following this, Azerbaijan declined to participate in the scheduled talks in Granada, Brussels, and Washington DC throughout October and November 2023. The most notable progress in bilateral relations occurred with the release of an unprecedented joint statement by Armenia and Azerbaijan on December 7th, outlining agreements on the exchange of prisoners of war and Armenia's backing of Azerbaijan's hosting of COP29. Additionally, there were two meetings of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Commission on Delimitation and Demarcation along their shared border in November 2023 and January 2024, all conducted bilaterally without third-party involvement. The forthcoming gatherings in Germany thus mark the first face-to-face meetings between Mr Aliyev and Mr Pashinyan since September, and notably they represent the first instance of an EU member state's participation in these meetings as a facilitator.
The decision to hold their first post-September face-to-face meeting in Germany does not appear casual, and it carries significant strategic implications. Despite negotiations occurring on distinct EU-led and Russian-led tracks, with more recent involvement from Washington, opting for Berlin suggests both Armenia and Azerbaijan favor the EU's direction in their peace process framework. This choice suggests a desire for a more neutral and multilateral approach, potentially seeking to balance the influence of regional powers with a heavier presence. Germany, as a key player in the European Union, offers a platform that emphasizes diplomatic dialogue and adherence to international norms. Germany's history of reconciliation efforts, particularly in the context of its own reunification and its role in European integration, could provide a symbolic backdrop for discussions aimed at resolving the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The EU cannot afford to overlook the strategic importance of the South Caucasus. If on the one hand over the past two years significant steps have been undertaken, including the deployment of the EUMA in Armenia and the Brussels track of negotiations led by Charles Michel, on the other hand some more concrete actions, with a well-defined and consistent strategy, would be appreciated. The lack of a clear and coherent vision has destabilized Armenia and Azerbaijan, which have often questioned to which extent they can really trust a Western involvement in the region.
From an economic point of view, 2024 will be a crucial year for the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan's hosting of COP29, together with the growing importance of the Middle Corridor and the imperative for energy diversification for the EU, are major reasons why the region should not be forgotten by European policymakers. Moreover, the South Caucasus serves as a bridge to Central Asia, another region in the European spotlight, towards which Brussels has recently revealed plans to invest 10 billion euros in infrastructure development within the framework of the Global Gateway initiative. With Russia's diminished influence and Armenia's willingness to engage with Western partners, it is paramount that the EU seizes this opportunity to deepen its involvement in the region, and Germany appears to have what it takes to take the lead and guide this process forward.
source: Simona Scotti is an expert on EU-South Caucasus relations, security, and Turkey-South Caucasus relations
photo: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosted talks with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the Munich Security Conference in February 2024
