Opinion: Europe finds itself in a double-bind over African gas

Europe needs to make sure that it does not unfairly exploit the area and it does not unduly oscillate between advocating for renewable energy while at the same time looking for fossil fuels in Africa, writes Alexandra Dumitrescu in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. Europe should also take into consideration the risk factors of possible terrorists strikes, and address the problem at the roots rather than on surface level.

In response to sanctions, Russia has turned off their pipelines forcing Europe to rethink their gas suppliers. In May, the leaders of Germany and Poland visited the western coast of Africa, where a new liquefied natural gas (LNG) project near Senegal and Mauritania’s coastline is 80% complete and, although production is projected to start only by late 2023, it is expected to yield around 425 billion cubic metres of gas. It will not solve the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine, however, and while production will not start immediately, it will help Europe reduce its reliance on Russian gas in the long-term. In other developments, Egypt and Israel also signed a memorandum of understanding with Europe on 15 June to boost sales of LNG. According to the memorandum, the EU will encourage companies to participate in Israeli and Egyptian exploration tenders and bids while shipments of LNG from Israel and Egypt will increase. Other countries are not idle too: on 18 July Italy sealed an agreement with Algeria to start the development of gas fields in the Berkine perimeter.

These developments, while easing the pressure caused by the disruption of Russian gas imports to the EU, should be approached with a healthy caution, for there are aspects to consider which Europe, desperate to find new energy markets, may overlook, unwittingly or otherwise. Firstly, African leaders may export more gas to boost their finances, curtailing the domestic supplies, leaving their citizens without gas and electricity. For example, Egypt claimed that it will regulate air conditioning in shopping malls and lights on streets to save energy in order to export it instead. Egyptian prime minister, Mostafa Madbouly, also claimed that they are ready to reroute 15% of its domestic gas usage for export. According to the General Assembly resolution adopted in 1962, the EU cannot impose rules on how the African governments deal with the administration of gas as it is a matter of national sovereignty. Not taking any measures to dissuade African leaders from prioritising foreign markets over domestic consumers, however, will mean that Europe is unfairly exploiting the situation. Thus, the EU could impose a cap on the agreements on the amount of gas imported, that would not disturb African domestic usage.

Secondly, critics have pondered whether the full-scale invasion of Ukraine will be used as an excuse by the EU to not keep up with its mission in reducing carbon pollution, threatening climate targets. Although the European Commission presented the REPowerEU Plan to support the acceleration of renewable energy on 18 May, Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands have turned to coal as backup. In addition, although the EU supports the transition to renewable energy, the EU turned to Africa for its LNG ignoring the effect it will have on climate change. Furthermore, on 6 July European lawmakers classified gas and nuclear energy as “green investments”, a decision defended by Ursula von der Leyen as she was “deeply convinced” it would help transition to clean energy in the long run. Critics have pointed out that in the past, financing from institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the European Investment Bank have stopped for gas projects (ex. Mozambique’s Central Termica de Temane power station) due to climate reasons; given the critical situation it has once again been normalised. 

The president of Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari responded to this policy by saying that “We need long-term partnership, not inconsistency and contradiction on green policy from the UK and European Union… It does not help their energy security; it does not help Nigeria’s economy and it does not help the environment. It is a hypocrisy that must end.” Moreover, the former head of UN Economic Commission for Africa, Carlos Lopes, stated that a short-term gas fix is “patronising and hypocritical”, adding that it is “outrageous to say to the Africans that they should basically not look into the options that they have in front of them, and at the same time accelerate the request for gas for Europe because of the Russian-Ukraine war”. 

Climate change is already affecting the continent in sometimes critical ways; the Horn of Africa is experiencing some of the worst droughts in four decades while sea erosion eats away at coastal territories. Besides, Africa’s only three glaciers will likely see total deglaciation by the 2040s, while increased flooding will continue to affect agriculture in equatorial countries and parts of East Africa. The World Bank has stated that the African continent will be most impacted by climate change as it will have an effect on mass internal migration which in turn will lead to an increase in poverty, fragility, and conflict. Hence, the EU needs to take a decision: either support the development of green projects such as building wind turbines and solar panels in Saharan Africa, or allow and help finance African governments to make use of their natural resources, trying to limit the impact on climate change as much as possible.

Thirdly, risks of energy thefts may place the EU in a face-to-face combat with terrorists and insurgents. In 2009 Nigeria signed an agreement to build a gas pipeline that connects Nigerian gas to Algeria through Niger, however due to security reasons it was not implemented. This year on 18 July the agreement was re-signed by the three countries given the increased demand for gas after the Russian attack on Ukraine. However, Nigeria has been battling with ongoing crises of mass abductions, jeopardising the project’s implementation. In September 2022, armed men kidnapped more than 80 Christians, while since December 2020 there have been 1440 children and 17 teachers kidnapped. Kidnappings in Nigeria take place because of high unemployment and harsh poverty conditions, and abductions became a source of income. The EU should invest in developing the area in order to diversify income opportunities. The EU could further help the Nigerian government monitor these attacks better via drones and by providing finances for defensive equipment such as oversight mechanisms that could help prevent attacks. 

Europe should take all these aspects into consideration; it needs to make sure that it does not unfairly exploit the area and it does not unduly oscillate between advocating for renewable energy while at the same time looking for fossil fuels in Africa. Furthermore, it should take into consideration the risk factors of possible terrorists strikes and address the problem at the roots rather than on surface level.

source: Alexandra Dumitrescu is a Junior Research Associate at LINKS Europe and commonspace.eu
photo: Bernd von Jutrczenka/dpa/picture alliance via Deutsche Welle
The views expressed in opinion pieces and commentaries do not necessarily reflect the position of commonspace.eu or its partners.

 

Latest

Editor's choice
Monday Commentary
Monday Commentary: PEACE IN OUR TIME?

Monday Commentary: PEACE IN OUR TIME?

Making peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan was never going to be simple, nor easy, nor quick. It is taking time, writes Dennis Sammut in this Monday Commentary. “There is a sense of realism coming from the leaders of the two countries – President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and prime minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia, that frankly, is necessary and welcome”, he writes. At a time when conflicts are raging all over the world – from Ukraine to the Gulf, from Africa to South Asia, the prospect that Armenia and Azerbaijan had finally, after decades of conflict that left thousands of dead and many more displaced, decided on embarking on a journey of peace was welcomed. Peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan can be top-down up to a point. Both leaders have spent political capital preparing for a peace deal. But both are aware that their people are not ready for peace yet. In fact, in Armenia, most of the elite are negative toward a peace deal with Azerbaijan. Pashinyan needs time to persuade his countryfolk. That is why 2031 is realistic. Ilham Aliyev runs a tighter shop, but he is also not immune to public opinion. Every time someone hits a landmine in Karabakh, which unfortunately happens often, peace comes into question. Which is why Aliyev chooses to sound hardline, more often than not. In pursuing the peace agenda, both Aliyev and Pashinyan need to proceed cautiously. But they are right in making peace the central issue in their agenda. It is the main issue, and the one that will define them in history. So forward, cautiously but resolutely! In pursuing the peace agenda, Aliyev and Pashinyan need to be supported clearly and unambiguously. There are too many people in Baku and Yerevan who are sitting on the sides, waiting. The international community is not doing enough. It is time to be counted. Otherwise, the spoilers will win, and the region will go back to its bad habits. (Click the image to read the full commentary).
Editor's choice
News
Ukraine Peace Talks Set to Expand as Russia and Europe Clash Over Post-war Security

Ukraine Peace Talks Set to Expand as Russia and Europe Clash Over Post-war Security

Ukraine and Russia could see European countries join the next round of peace negotiations, following talks between US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Thursday (November 12). However, conflicting positions over European military involvement, Ukraine’s territorial future and the continent’s security arrangements highlight the difficulties facing the diplomatic process. Speaking after the meeting, Witkoff said European participation would be an important development, describing the countries concerned as key partners. Kushner also indicated that Washington had noticed a shift in European attitudes and believed their involvement would not obstruct progress. In a statement published on X, he said the expanded discussions would address broader European security arrangements alongside territorial disputes between Russia and Ukraine. The US envoys subsequently travelled to Dublin, where they met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a European summit. Zelenskyy welcomed the possibility of European participation and expressed hope that the negotiations would include measures to reduce tensions and establish ceasefires. He also reiterated the importance of European representation in decisions concerning the continent’s security. Moscow, however, has offered a more cautious interpretation of the proposed expansion. Putin's aide, Yuri Ushakov, suggested that European countries should first reconsider their military assistance to Kyiv, arguing that their current actions demonstrated an unwillingness to pursue peace. Putin similarly called on Washington to work with its European allies to establish whether they genuinely wanted peace or continued confrontation with Russia. The Russian president also rejected the prospect of European peacekeeping troops being deployed to Ukraine following a potential agreement, describing such a presence as a continuation of the war. His position reflects wider disagreements over the future European security architecture, with Moscow seeking discussions on the continent's broader security arrangements, while European leaders insist that such negotiations cannot replace a settlement of the war. Simultaneously, Zelenskyy raised concerns about disruptions to Starshield, the US-made satellite communications service used by Ukrainian forces. He described Washington’s discussions with Moscow about Europe's future security as unusual and warned against decisions that could undermine Ukraine's sovereignty. Despite the diplomatic activity, fighting continued. Russian drone attacks killed two people in Ukraine's Sumy region and injured five in Rivne, while a separate attack in Russia's Belgorod region killed one person and injured four. Ukrainian agricultural company Kernel Holding also suspended operations at all its oilseed extraction facilities following repeated Russian attacks.

Popular

Editor's choice
Monday Commentary
Monday Commentary: European-Azerbaijan relations need an intensive and multifaceted dialogue that is frank and honest

Monday Commentary: European-Azerbaijan relations need an intensive and multifaceted dialogue that is frank and honest

Last week I visited Baku, Azerbaijan. My visit was relatively short, but very intensive, and had many meetings with stakeholders and colleagues. When I arrived in Baku first time in 1996,  Azerbaijan was a different country: weak, poor, and shaken by defeat in war. For thirty year the Karabakh issue dominated the agenda: the political agenda but also the popular mindset. Now, thirty years later, Azerbaijan has returned to Karabakh, and peace with Armenia is on the horizon. It is a new era for Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, for the South Caucasus, but also for Europe.  But we cannot be complacent: the Peace agreement has been initialed but not signed; borders remain closed; TRIPP is ambitious but remains an idea; and there are spoilers who want to turn the clock back. We must not allow them, and in this Europe and Azerbaijan must work together. Europe’ vanguard organization is the European Union – it is a free union of 27 member states; it is a strong global economic force, and increasingly a diplomatic and military force too. But it remains “work in progress” and can often appear dysfunctional. It often lacks collective and institutional memory. In its dealings with Azerbaijan the EU has made many mistakes – not least opening the delegation here late – in 2008. It sometimes appears condescending. Some utterances from the European Parliament and from some quarters in some member states are not understandable even for me. They irritate the Azerbaijanis, but serve no other purpose But Azerbaijan has also not handled relations with the EU well. It has failed to respond when the hand of friendship reached out; and it confused irritating actions, sometimes by well-meaning people; sometimes by outright spoilers, with strategic action. In short, EU-Azerbaijan relations have suffered from a lack of proper dialogue. This dialogue must be frank, honest and multi-faceted involving different segments of society on both sides.   Is Azerbaijan Europe? When Azerbaijan applied to join the Council of Europe in the 1990s, there were some who opposed, saying this was not Europe. I was one of the people who argued that Armenia and Azerbaijan may be on the periphery of the continent geographically, but were European in essence. Certainly their elites. During the discussion on 4 September in Baku, my friend Farhad Mammedov, mentioned that Azerbaijan is not interested in joining the EU, and was now close to the Central Asian countries in the 5 plus 1 format. Neither things mean that Azerbaijan is not Europe. There are several European countries that are not in the EU, and do not want to be, for example Norway and Switzerland. Iceland has recently voted to stay out of the EU. The UK was a member and left. Europe is bigger than the EU, and the holding of the European Political Community summit in Baku in 2027 proves that. Despite all the rhetoric, I never heard the president of Azerbaijan  saying that Azerbaijan is not Europe, nor have I heard any European president say it either. Not wanting to join the EU and forging close relations with neighbouring regions does not make Azerbaijan any less European. It is only logical that when Europeans talk to Azerbaijan they talk like family. The conversation is often frank. It must also be honest, and Europeans need always to remember this too. A frank, honest and multi-faceted dialogue A frank, honest and multifaceted dialogue will contribute to relations between Azerbaijan and the rest of Europe: it will avoid misperception, which unfortunately is very common on both sides; it will provide a forum where problems can be discussed and resolved, and it will increase mutual trust, so that together common problems can be addressed. (click image to read the full Monday Commentary)
Editor's choice
Monday Commentary
Monday Commentary: “The barren rocks of Aden” and “These lands of Yemen are so ruthless”

Monday Commentary: “The barren rocks of Aden” and “These lands of Yemen are so ruthless”

There are two early 20th-century tunes that mark foreign attempts to occupy and “pacify” Yemen. The Scottish tune “The barren rocks of Aden” marks the mobilisation of Highland soldiers, enlisted to be deployed to the Yemeni port of Aden, that in 1837 became the last colony to be incorporated into the British Empire. The tune talks of the harshness of the terrain, but is celebratory, It was even played as a farewell tune to Sir William Luce at the parade in Sharjah celebrating his end as “British Viceroy” in the Middle East in 1966. The second tune is an Anatolian lament. As Ilker Sezer reminded us this weekend, in his weekly feature on “Turkiye Today”, it “mourns the tragic fate of Ottoman soldiers dispatched to the harsh, remote deserts of Yemen during the fall of the empire, young men who marched away from their villages and never returned home. Most of their names, and numbers, were never recorded. Yet, their fate left a mark on the Turkish psyche.” Subsequent invaders have discovered that Yemen is a grave that cannot be overcome by the strength of modern technology, and that whilst Yemeni society is splintered and divided, building a reliable alliance with Yemeni factions is difficult. These are the harsh lessons facing Saudi Arabia, as the Kingdom faces its biggest challenge in its modern history. The leadership of the Kingdom now has to respond decisively. At stake is their very credibility. This is likely to be a long and messy conflict. Saudi military objectives need to be focused: to box in the Houthis rather than destroy them. This is likely to include: (a) regaining territory lost on the Red Sea coast; (b) control over Bab el Mandeb Strait; (c) some kind of cordon sanitaire on the Saudi-Yemeni border; and if things go well (d) the capture of Sanaa. All this would not eliminate the Houthi problem, but it will contain it. In the end the Saudis will have to continue managing Yemen with a mixture of carrot and stick. For the moment, the stick is likely, but the carrot cannot be forgotten either. (click the image to read the Monday Commentary in full)