Moment of Truth: The conduct of forthcoming elections in Armenia and Georgia will define the region for the next two decades.

Ten years ago, parts of the Turkish military attempted to overthrow the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The consequences of the failed coup continue to shape Turkiye to this day.  It was the evening of July 15, 2016. A warm summer day was coming to an end. Many people were spending their Friday evening with friends or family, looking forward to the weekend. There was nothing to suggest that Turkiye was about to be fundamentally transformed. Then, just a few hours later, tanks were rolling through the streets. Fighter jets flying over Ankara and Istanbul. Soldiers blocking the Bosphorus Bridge, the link between Europe and Asia. The parliament in Ankara came under fire. Turkish President Recep Tayip Erdogan called on the public via a video call broadcast to take to the streets and stop the coup. The coup attempt failed that very night, but its political consequences continue to impact the country The Turkish government blamed the Gulen movement for the coup attempt. Its founder, the Muslim cleric Fetullah Gulen was based in the United States. The government accused Gulen of having infiltrated the judiciary, police, military, and other state institutions with followers over decades in an effort to undermine the state. Gulen and his followers denied any involvement in the coup. Many high-ranking military officials with alleged ties to Gulen were arrested.. Gulen died in the US aged 83 in the US in 2024. In Turkey, July 15 is now a national holiday. The former Bosphorus Bridge was renamed the "Bridge of the Martyrs of July 15." It commemorates the people who lost their lives that night. According to official figures, 253 people died, most of them civilians. Many streets, squares and schools also bear the name "July 15". However, the anniversary is not just about commemorating the victims. It also marks a profound political turning point. The Gulen movement was designated a terrorist organization, and its alleged supporters were largely extracted from the state apparatus. Six days after the coup, parliament approved a state of emergency. It was initially limited to three months but did not end until July 19, 2018. During those two years, the president governed largely by emergency decrees, issuing 32 decrees in total. The consequences of these political purges have been enormous. More than 125,000 members of the civil service and the armed forces were dismissed. According to official figures, approximately 390,000 people had been detained or arrested between 2016 and 2025 on suspicion of ties to Gulen.

Ukraine's air defenses intercepted five Russian ballistic missiles during a large-scale overnight attack on July 14–15, marking the first reported successful interceptions of ballistic missiles in nearly two weeks as Kyiv seeks to strengthen its air defense capabilities amid continuing Russian strikes. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia launched eight Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles, two Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 135 attack drones overnight. Ukrainian forces said they destroyed seven missiles, including five ballistic missiles, and intercepted 108 drones. However, several missiles and drones penetrated the country's defenses, damaging civilian infrastructure in Kyiv and other regions. In the capital, explosions were reported shortly after midnight, with President Volodymyr Zelensky saying that 16 sites were damaged, including a school and a civilian enterprise. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported fires at two warehouses. While no fatalities were recorded in the capital, Russian attacks elsewhere in the country killed at least seven people and injured 78, according to regional authorities. Casualties were reported in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv oblasts, with critical infrastructure also struck in several regions. The successful interceptions come after weeks of concern over Ukraine's dwindling supply of interceptor missiles. Following a massive Russian strike on July 6, Ukrainian officials said they failed to intercept any of the 29 ballistic missiles launched, prompting Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat to warn that the country lacked sufficient interceptor missiles to counter such attacks. Although the Ukrainian Air Force did not specify which system was used during the latest attack, the ballistic missiles were likely intercepted by U.S.-supplied Patriot systems, Ukraine's most effective defense against Russian ballistic threats. President Volodymyr Zelensky himself has repeatedly cautioned that Patriot interceptor stocks are critically low, a shortage that recently prompted the United States to approve a licensing agreement allowing the missiles to be produced in Ukraine with U.S. support. Speaking after the latest bombardment, Zelensky has once again renewed calls for tougher sanctions against Russia and urged the European Union to adopt its 21st sanctions package. "Every day sanctions are delayed gives Russia additional time to prepare. Everything Russia uses to prolong this war and attack people – chips, microelectronics, dual-use goods – must be stopped," Zelensky argued. He also reiterated the need to establish a European anti-ballistic missile defense system, describing it as a more affordable, mass-produced complement to the U.S.-made Patriot system. The appeal comes as Ukraine and its allies expand defense cooperation. During Bastille Day events in Paris on July 14, Zelensky announced the creation of a coalition of ten countries to develop a shared European ballistic missile shield. He said the initiative aims to create a more affordable, mass-produced system that would complement existing Patriot batteries. During the same gathering of the “coalition of the willing,” France also pledged additional military assistance, including advanced SAMP/T-NG air defense systems, Rafale fighter jets, and cooperation on domestic production of Western missiles and precision-guided munitions. The initiative follows a separate agreement with the United States, conceived at the NATO Summit in Ankara, allowing Ukraine to begin licensed production of Patriot interceptor missiles.