Diplomacy

No decision has been reached on whether Berlin will approve the supply of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine at Ramstein Air Force base summit of global defence leaders in Germany on Friday (20 January). The BBC reports that the Polish Defence Minister, Mariusz Blaszczak, remains optimistic that efforts to supply the tanks would be successful, saying, "Defence ministers of 15 countries met on the sidelines of today's conference and we talked about this topic...I am convinced that coalition building will end in success." Both leading up to and during the summit on Friday, numerous countries had made separate pledges of military equipment to Ukraine. The Netherlands, Canada, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Lativa, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, the UK, Sweden, Finland, Germany and the United States are among those to have pledged further military aid to Ukraine in the past week.

The defeat in the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war shocked Armenia and Armenians all around the world, and destroyed many deeply entrenched perspectives on Armenia's geo-political realities, writes Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. "Armenia should establish new partnerships that will allow Yerevan to decrease its economic and military development gap with Azerbaijan while adding a new layer of deterrence against Turkey in addition to the existing strategic alliance with Russia. In this context, India is the natural choice for Armenia", he argues. All the necessary ingredients are there to boost Armenia – India relations and bring them to the level of strategic partnership. There is an urgent need to institutionalize the ties, and the first step toward that direction could be establishing an Armenia - India high-level cooperation council. It should have annual sessions with the participation of Armenian and Indian Prime Ministers. At the same time, joint strategic planning groups should be established under the council to develop concrete projects in different spheres. 

On 10 January 2023, the EU and NATO signed a Joint Declaration in Brussels. They condemned in the strongest possible terms Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and reiterated their unwavering support to the country. The declaration also sets out a shared vision of how the EU and NATO will act together against common security threats. The EU and NATO will expand and deepen their cooperation on areas such as: the growing geostrategic competition resilience and the protection of critical infrastructure emerging and disruptive technologies space the security implications of climate change foreign information manipulation and interference. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, met on Tuesday (10 January 2023) at NATO Headquarters to sign the third Joint Declaration on NATO-European Union cooperation. Speaking at a joint press conference, Mr Stoltenberg said: “we are determined to take the partnership between NATO and the European Union to the next level.” The Joint Declaration aims to further strengthen and expand the strategic partnership between NATO and the EU, building on unprecedented progress in cooperation between the two organisations since previous declarations were signed in 2016 and 2018.

Benyamin Netanyahu is back in office as prime minister of Israel, at the head of a coalition that has been described as the most right wing in the history of the Jewish state. Changes are expected in policy on a number of issues, including a hardening of foreign policy positions and support for new settlements in the Palestinian territories. The United States, whist remaining Israel's staunchest supporter, is concerned about what the new policies may lead to. In a short statement on Monday (2 January) , the State Department said that "Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke today with Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen to congratulate him on his appointment and underscore the United States’ abiding commitment to the U.S.-Israel partnership and to Israel’s security."  The statement added that Blinken "emphasized the continued U.S. commitment to a two-state solution and opposition to policies that endanger its viability."

On 1 January 2023, Sweden took over the Presidency of the Council of the European Union from Czechia. "Security, competitiveness, green and energy transitions, democratic values and the rule of law" are the priorities of the Presidency for the coming six months. During the first half of the year, Sweden will lead the work in the Council of the EU and represent all 27 Member States in negotiations with other EU institutions. The Swedish Presidency will chair approximately 2 000 meetings in Brussels and Luxembourg, and approximately 150 informal meetings will be held in locations throughout Sweden. “Sweden is taking over the Presidency at a time when the European Union is facing unprecedented challenges. A greener, more secure and freer Europe is the foundation of our priorities,” said Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson on 14 December when he presented the priorities of the Swedish Presidency to the Riksdag

After the wave of diplomatic activities in late September – early October 2022, it seemed that the idea of signing a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan by the end of 2022 was more than a dream. However, November – December 2022 proved that pessimists were closer to reality. After Russia re-inserted itself in the negotiation process by organizing a new trilateral leaders' summit on October 31, 2022, and Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers met in Washington on November 7, 2022; the peace process stalled. In the current situation, the external players involved in the negotiations and interested in preventing a resumption of hostilities should focus on preserving the fragile stability that emerged after September aggression by Azerbaijan. In this context, the resumption of the Brussels format of negotiations is of utmost importance. Otherwise, the Nagorno Karabakh conflict and Armenia – Azerbaijan relations risk becoming another pawn in Russia – US confrontation, with negative implications for all sides.