South Caucasus

The Armenian exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh continued in the last twenty-four hours, with the numbers of those that have moved to Armenia reaching 68,386 by 1200 on Thursday (28 September), according to Armenian government sources. Speaking at a government meeting in Yerevan, Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan said that soon there will be no Armenians living in Karabakh and called this ethnic cleansing. In the meantime, the self-styled president of the self-declared Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Samvel Shahramanyan, has issued a decree declaring that the Republic and all its institutions will be dissolved on 1 January 2024. The text of the decree, as published on Armenpress, states: "given the grave military-political situation and pursuant to ensuring the physical security and essential interests of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh as a priority, taking into consideration the agreement reached with Azerbaijan mediated by the Russian peacekeeping forces command that the free, voluntary and unimpeded passage of the NK residents with their property and vehicles through Lachin Corridor will be taken into consideration.” All ministries and other state agencies and organizations will be disbanded by January 1, 2024 and the Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) Republic ceases to exist,” reads the order. “The population of Nagorno-Karabakh, including the population now outside the republic, after this order takes effect, becomes acquainted with the terms of reintegration presented by Azerbaijan with the purpose of making an individual decision in the future on the opportunity to stay (return) in/to NK”.

Thousands of ethnic Armenians have left the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in the last days, following the short Azerbaijani military operation on 19 September, and the decision of the de facto authorities of the territory to acquiesce to the Azerbaijani demands to disarm. Official Armenian sources said that by Monday (26 September) at 20.00 hours, 28,120 persons had crossed over to the territory of the Republic of Armenia. Of these 3,253 were provided with temporary accommodation - the rest saying that they were making their own arrangements. The painful exodus was further exacerbated on Sunday evening with an incident at a petrol station just outside Stepanakert, the administrative capital of Karabakh, where many were waiting to fill their cars with petrol for the journey to Armenia. It resulted in an explosion that killed 68 persons and left many others badly burnt. The international community is currently mobilising humanitarian aid for the incoming refugees, as well as for those remaining in Karabakh. The new situation has also resulted in unprecedented co-operation between the Azerbaijani authorities and the de facto Armenian authorities in Karabakh. Following the incident at the petrol station 15 Fire Engines of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Emergency Situations travelled to Stepanakert to help put out the fire. Baku also sent emergency medical supplies. Observers think that these steps by Baku, and others including the provision of fuel and food supplies, may help calm fears amongst the Armenian community of Karabakh of Baku's intentions. But given the long history of conflict and animosity, and the thousands killed on both sides over the last four decades, restoring trust will take a very long time. In the meantime, the exodus of Armenians from Karabakh is likely to continue.

The European Union on Monday (26 September) hosted high level diplomatic discussions in Brussels between senior officials from Armenia and Azerbaijan. The main objective of the meeting was to prepare for a summit between Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliyev and Armenian prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, with the participation of the president of the European Union Charles Michel, the president of France Emanuel Macron, and the Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz. Although the meeting has not been formally confirmed it is now considered very likely to happen in Granada next week. President Michel joined the participants for a brief exchange. A statement from Brussels said, "The EU invited participants to exchange views on the current situation on the ground and various efforts aimed at addressing the urgent needs of the local population. The European Union closely follows all these developments and has been engaged at the highest level to help alleviate the impact of hostilities on civilians. The EU reiterated in this context its position on Azerbaijan’s military operation last week. Hikmet Hajiyev outlined Azerbaijan’s plans to provide humanitarian assistance and security to the local population. The EU stressed the need for transparency and access for international humanitarian and human rights actors and for more detail on Baku’s vision for Karabakh Armenians’ future in Azerbaijan. The EU is providing assistance to Karabakh Armenians. The meeting also allowed for intense exchanges between participants on the relevance of a possible meeting of the leaders in the framework of the Third EPC Summit scheduled for 5 October 2023 in Granada. The participants took note of the shared interest of Armenia and Azerbaijan to make use of the possible meeting in Granada to continue their normalisation efforts. In this regard, Armen Grigoryan and Hikmet Hajiyev engaged in talks on possible concrete steps to advance the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process in the upcoming possible meeting, such as those with regard to border delimitation, security, connectivity, humanitarian issues, and the broader peace treaty. Concrete action and decisive compromise solutions are needed on all tracks of the normalisation process. The EU believes that the possible meeting in Granada should be used by both Yerevan and Baku to reiterate publicly their commitment to each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty in line with agreements reached previously in Prague and Brussels. "

Senior officials of Armenia and Azerbaijan are in Brussels this week to prepare for a leaders summit, scheduled to be held in Granada, Spain on 5 October. Armenian National Security Council Secretary, Armen Grigorian, and Azerbaijani Presidential Foreign Policy Assistant, Hikmet Haciyev will meet with representatives from the EU, France and Germany to prepare for the summit. This was announced simultaneously in Baku and Yerevan immediately after the visit to the region of the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Toivo Klaar on Friday and Saturday. Such meetings between Haciyev and Grigorian have taken place in the past, but usually without much publicity. The announcement comes amongst increased speculation that Armenia and Azerbaijan are close to agreeing the text of a peace agreement between them and that this could be signed before the end of the year, a pre-document, may even be signed in Granada. This development comes despite the fact that recent weeks have seen a high level of tension in the region, which culminated on Tuesday (19 September) in a 24 hours Azerbaijani military operation which re-asserted Azerbaijani control over Nagorno-Karabakh - even whilst leaving hundreds of casualties and thousands of refugees. The operation led to the Armenians of Karabakh agreeing to disarm, and the two sides are now holding talks for the eventual reintegration of the territory within the Azerbaijani state. The process has been mediated by the command of the Russian military contingent in Karabakh. commonspace.eu political editor says that a picture is emerging, whereby Russia is taking the leading role in the mediation between Baku and the Karabakh Armenians, and with supervising any agreement between them through the Russian military contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh, which numbers around 2000 personnel. The EU, through the wider format involving both the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the leaders of France and Germany, can now focus on Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, and the eventual signing of a peace agreement. This arrangement looks very neat on paper, but of course there are many cross cutting issues. How the two processes will evolve in parallel yet in harmony is yet to be seen.

After a long stand-off, a one day war which left hundreds of casualties, and a series of long overdue face to face talks, the Government of Azerbaijan has agreed terms with the leaders of the Armenian community of Nagorno-Karabakh which will see Azerbaijan assuming back full control of the territory after a failed secessionist movement which lasted more than three decades. The leadership of the Armenian community of Nagorno-Karabakh has now published the points agreed by the two sides at their meeting on Thursday in an official notice released by the Artsakh Information Centre. It contains six points, which the Centre says are already being implemented, including the disarmament and eventual disbanding of the armed formations of the self-declared Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. Azerbaijani troops have now consolidated their control over outlaying villages and settlements around the administrative capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, Stepanakert, but have not entered the town itself. It seems they will not, yet. In an interview with the Azerbaijani Service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty,  Farid Shafiyev, the head of AIR Centre – an Azerbaijani government think tank - said that ”until 2025, the Azerbaijani military and police will not be in Khankendi [Stepanakert],".   commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that Azerbaijan is de facto in control of Nagorno-Karabakh, but it understands it needs to thread carefully amidst widespread warnings against ethnic cleansing. Baku needs to re-assert control over the territory whilst creating enough conditions for the Armenian population to stay and not depart en masse. The first task is to deal with the immediate aftermaths of fighting of the last days, namely bury the dead, provide for the wounded and managing the problem of displaced persons. There are also issues related to alleviating the suffering of the civilian population who had been under a blockade for a number of months. Then the more difficult task of trying to find a right political model for Karabakh will start. The last days have seen the end of an era in Karabakh, another one is about to start.

War returned to the Caucasus for one day this week, claiming hundreds of lives, displacing more people, and denting further the prospects for peace. Every time blood is spilt, regardless of any justification, the wounds of the past open again, and this time is no exception.  Whilst Baku appears to have achieved its objective of frustrating the decades-long Armenian political project in Karabakh, the situation on the ground remains fluid. Tens of thousands of civilians are now caught in the epicentre of a difficult and painful political transition that will see Nagorno-Karabakh re-integrated back into Azerbaijan. How this process will work out is not clear at all, and every step is fraught with risks. So far Baku has shown its stick. Now it needs to show its carrot. Following this week’s events, some said that the peace process is dead. This needs not be the case. In fact in their speeches in the last hours both President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan reiterated their commitment to the peace agenda. In the coming weeks and months Armenia and Azerbaijan need to remain focused on the one objective of signing a peace agreement. Without it the chance of more deadly violence in future will be much higher. The international community too must keep this as its top agenda in the region. The journey has not become easier in the last days, but the road remains open. The journey now needs to be finished.

Talks between representatives of Baku and Stepanakert on the future of Karabakh and its Armenian community were held on Thursday, 21 September in the town of Yevlakh. Representatives of the Armenian community of Nagorno-Karabakh arrived in the Azerbaijani town of Yavlakh for discussions with Baku officials on the future of the territory and its Armenian population. According to Armenpress news agency the Armenian group is led by Davit Melkumyan, head of the "Artsakh Democratic Party" faction in the parliament of the self-declared Nagorno-Karabakh Republic parliament, and Sergey Martirosyan, deputy secretary of the Security Council.  The group travelled by car in a convoy escorted by Azerbaijani police and Russian forces. For the Baku side, the talks will be led by Ramin Mammadov, a member of parliament who earlier this year was designated by the Azerbaijan government as the lead person for contacts with the Karabakh Armenians.