South Caucasus

Next year’s parliamentary elections in Armenia will not focus on the economy or other domestic issues, but rather on the country’s place in the surrounding region and relations with its neighbours. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, down but not out following military defeat and political upheaval, has staked his future on reaching what would prove to be a historic peace agreement with Azerbaijan. But with public trust at an all-time low, disillusionment among the electorate could make this the most unpredictable vote since independence was declared in 1991. Armenia will hold parliamentary elections on 7 June 2026, its first regularly scheduled national vote since April 2017. In this analysis for commonspace.eu, Onnik James Krikorian argues that "ten months before the vote, the outcome still remains difficult to predict. Though it still seems most likely that the incumbent will win, a great deal will also be determined during the official campaign period itself, and new developments on the ground. If peace with Azerbaijan is finally within reach, and there are signs that this is the case, it will be difficult for voters to reject stability instead of insecurity and the further risk of war. Ultimately, the 2026 election will determine not just who governs Armenia, but whether the country can finally emerge from decades of conflict and semi-regional isolation, or if it is destined to remain trapped by it." He adds, "that might prove enough to sway even reluctant support for Pashinian at the ballot box. The opposition has still yet to offer any viable alternative – or even one at all."

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit, held on August 31–September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, China, brought together leaders of the 10 member states, as well as representatives from over 20 countries and 10 international organisations. The summit resulted in the adoption of the Tianjin Declaration and the SCO Development Strategy until 2035, outlining key directions for cooperation and security. Armenia officially announced its intention to join the SCO on July 3, 2025, emphasising its commitment to the organisation’s core principles, territorial integrity, non-use of force, and inviolability of borders. Azerbaijan submitted its application later, in August. Currently, the process of admitting Armenia and Azerbaijan to the SCO is in the preliminary co-ordination stage, involving the attainment of partner status with the prospect of transitioning to full membership in the future.