Defence

They say that a week is a long time in politics, and the time since the European Political Community (EPC) was established in October 2022, may now seem like an eternity. The war in Ukraine, that triggered the establishment of the EPC, drags on, and continues to define Europe. Everything else has changed. When the EPC was established, many yawned, and saw it as yet another useless talking shop. But the idea of creating a framework that brings the 27 EU member states with other European countries – 20 at the last meeting – has increasing value. The attendance of the leaders of these 20 countries: Turkiye’s Erdogan, Ukraine’s Zelensky, UK’s Starmer, and others, has made its twice yearly meetings an important occasion. It is in one area: defence and security, where the biggest need of Europe currently is, and where the biggest potential of the EPC lays. The war in Ukraine, Russia’s malign intentions, and Trump’s reset of US foreign and security policy, focused minds. Europe had been sleeping! When it woke up it did what the EU does whenever it is faced with a problem, it threw money at it, and started a defence spending spree, that was overdue, but is not by itself enough. The EU27 may be a global economic force, but on their own they lack strategic clout. But if you add with them the other European countries such as Turkiye, UK, Ukraine, and even smaller ones such as Norway and Switzerland, it becomes a completely different preposition. Under the surface, these discussions are going on even more intensively. But the European Political Community offers a space for conversations – public and private between the leaders of wider Europe. The value of the Community is therefore significant. The next EPC summit will be in Armenia on 4 May 2026. It will be important for a number of reasons: It will be a summit that should contribute to Armenia-Azerbaijan peace; it is not clear at what level will Azerbaijan participate, but for sure this will be a high level delegation. It will be the first EPC summit in Russia’s back yard – Armenia is still a member of the EAEU, and even if only on paper, of CSTO. The summit will take place on the eve of crucial parliamentary elections in Armenia that will determine the fate of the country and the region. But in the background will be the issue of how wider Europe can work together on defence and security. This will take time – probably not less than a decade – but the work has started, and the EPC summit in Armenia will contribute to it. (click the image above to read the full Monday Commentary).

Donald Trump continues to claim Greenland, not on the basis of any legal, historical or moral reason, but just because, as he says, “we must have it”. Greenland is a self-governing territory, part of the Kingdom of Denmark which has three constituent parts: mainland Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands. Copenhagen is responsible for Greenland’s defence and foreign affairs. Trump’s claim is so absurd, that initially it was not taken seriously. It was dismissed as another of Trump’s rants, soon to be forgotten. But on Friday (16 January), the president of the United States imposed from 1 February, 10% additional tariffs on eight European  countries that had dared question his claim: Denmark, Norway, Finland, Sweden, France, Germany, Netherlands and UK; with a threat that the extra tariffs  would increase to 25% on 1 June. Unfortunately, what may first appear to be a Lillipudian soap opera, is in fact a major international crises. Whatever happens now, transatlantic relations will never be the same again. Trust is broken, and the damage will be difficult to repair, even long after Trump has left the White House. Europe must now wake up to reality, and responsibility. NATO needs to change if it is to survive, depending less on the US, and being more agile. Trump’s Greenland threats have poisoned US-Europe relations, but they have also shown the meaning of the word solidarity, not only within the EU, but also with non-EU European countries such as UK and Norway, as well as with Canada. From every crises, an opportunity arises. (click the picture to read the full commentary).