Эксперт:

Готовность Армении к компромиссам - залог успешной "продажи труб" посредниками Минской группы ОБСЕ по мирному урегулированию нагорно-карабахского конфликта, поскольку именно этим, по сути, они и занимаются. Подобное мнение в ходе состоявшегося в НОФ "Нораванк" семинара "Нагорно-карабахский конфликт: сценарии военно-политического противостояния" выразил заместитель руководителя Центра политических исследований НОФ "Нораванк", военный эксперт Сергей Саркисян.

"Для посредников сегодня, как, впрочем, и всегда главное - продать трубы. При этом, для них даже неважно течет по этим трубам нефть или газ или не течет. Главное, чтобы эти магистрали не подверглись уничтожению или угрозе уничтожения. В этом контексте, для любой посреднической миссии очень важно добиться хоть какого-то компромисса от сторон конфликта или хотя бы готовности к компромиссу. Азербайджан все эти годы выступал с непреклонной, агрессивной позиции, исключающей какие-либо уступки в процессе урегулирования. На этом фоне, как минимум до позапрошлого года армянская сторона готовность к этим уступкам, по крайней мере, устно, выражала. Именно поэтому усилия посреднической миссии в основном адресовались в первую очередь армянской стороне конфликта, так как, по сути, посредникам было безразлично какая из сторон пойдет, а какая нет на эти уступки", - заметил он.

Тем не менее, по словам эксперта, на сегодняшний день ситуация изменилась, поскольку армянские стороны карабахского конфликта, исчерпав лимит предполагаемых уступок, дошли до красной линии.

"Таким образом, на этом фоне, сегодня и теоретически и практически предполагаемое урегулирование может быть лишь мирным, или же военным посредством возобновления боевых действий со стороны Азербайджана. Не исключено также достижение промежуточного соглашения в случае наличия уж очень сильного давления на Армению и Азербайджан со стороны стран-посредников. При этом, в любом случае именно трубы а не само урегулирование являются основной миссией посредников", - подытожил Саркисян.  Минская группа ОБСЕ, представленная сопредседателями от России, США и Франции, занимается урегулированием карабахского конфликта с 1992 года.

Related articles

Editor's choice
News
Borrell tells the European Parliament that the situation in Afghanistan was critical, but the EU will remain engaged

Borrell tells the European Parliament that the situation in Afghanistan was critical, but the EU will remain engaged

Borrell underlined that the European Union will make every effort to support the peace process and to remain a committed partner to the Afghan people. "Of course, we will have to take into account the evolving situation, but disengagement is not an option.  We are clear on that: there is no alternative to a negotiated political settlement, through inclusive peace talks.
Editor's choice
News
NATO Chief says war is on Europe's doorstep, and warns against complacency

NATO Chief says war is on Europe's doorstep, and warns against complacency

Russia could attack a Nato country within the next five years, the Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, said in a stark new warning. "Nato's own defences can hold for now," Rutte warned in Berlin, but conflict was "next door" to Europe and he feared "too many are quietly complacent, and too many don't feel the urgency, too many believe that time is on our side. "Russia is already escalating its covert campaign against our societies," Rutte said in a speech in Germany. "We must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured." Earlier this month, Russia's President Vladimir Putin said his country was not planning to go to war with Europe, but it was ready "right now" if Europe wanted to - or started a war. But similar reassurances were given by Moscow in 2022, just before 200,000 Russian troops crossed the border and invaded Ukraine. Putin has accused European countries of hindering US efforts to bring peace in Ukraine - a reference to the role Ukraine's European allies have recently played in trying to change a US peace plan to end the war, whose initial draft was seen as favouring Russia. But Putin was not sincere, Nato's secretary-general said in the German capital, Berlin. Supporting Ukraine, he added, was a guarantee for European security. "Just imagine if Putin got his way; Ukraine under the boot of Russian occupation, his forces pressing against a longer border with Nato, and the significantly increased risk of an armed attack against us." Russia's economy has been on a war footing for more than three years now - its factories churn out ever more supplies of drones, missiles and artillery shells. According to a recent report by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Russia has been producing each month around 150 tanks, 550 infantry fighting vehicles, 120 Lancet drones and more than 50 artillery pieces. The UK, and most of its Western allies, are simply not anywhere near this point. Analysts say it would take years for Western Europe's factories to come close to matching Russia's mass-production of weapons. "Allied defence spending and production must rise rapidly, our armed forces must have what they need to keep us safe," the Nato chief said.

Popular

Editor's choice
News
NATO Chief says war is on Europe's doorstep, and warns against complacency

NATO Chief says war is on Europe's doorstep, and warns against complacency

Russia could attack a Nato country within the next five years, the Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, said in a stark new warning. "Nato's own defences can hold for now," Rutte warned in Berlin, but conflict was "next door" to Europe and he feared "too many are quietly complacent, and too many don't feel the urgency, too many believe that time is on our side. "Russia is already escalating its covert campaign against our societies," Rutte said in a speech in Germany. "We must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured." Earlier this month, Russia's President Vladimir Putin said his country was not planning to go to war with Europe, but it was ready "right now" if Europe wanted to - or started a war. But similar reassurances were given by Moscow in 2022, just before 200,000 Russian troops crossed the border and invaded Ukraine. Putin has accused European countries of hindering US efforts to bring peace in Ukraine - a reference to the role Ukraine's European allies have recently played in trying to change a US peace plan to end the war, whose initial draft was seen as favouring Russia. But Putin was not sincere, Nato's secretary-general said in the German capital, Berlin. Supporting Ukraine, he added, was a guarantee for European security. "Just imagine if Putin got his way; Ukraine under the boot of Russian occupation, his forces pressing against a longer border with Nato, and the significantly increased risk of an armed attack against us." Russia's economy has been on a war footing for more than three years now - its factories churn out ever more supplies of drones, missiles and artillery shells. According to a recent report by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Russia has been producing each month around 150 tanks, 550 infantry fighting vehicles, 120 Lancet drones and more than 50 artillery pieces. The UK, and most of its Western allies, are simply not anywhere near this point. Analysts say it would take years for Western Europe's factories to come close to matching Russia's mass-production of weapons. "Allied defence spending and production must rise rapidly, our armed forces must have what they need to keep us safe," the Nato chief said.