South Caucasus

For the first time in 31 years of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, the situation feels more unpredictable than ever. In the past, there was a grim certainty that another war would erupt just as it did in September 2020 while peace, on the other hand, always seemed distant. In recent weeks, comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that it was almost a done deal simply solicited disagreement among analysts and political commentators.  As if that wasn’t confusion enough, and although both Baku and Yerevan have said that the 10 July meeting between the leaders in Abu Dhabi was constructive, another issue has emerged unexpectedly to distract and deflect attention.