Российский политолог:

Широкомасштабных военных действий, тем более с привлечением больших сил с обеих сторон нагорно-карабахского конфликта не будет.  Подобное мнение в онлайн интервью выразил АрмИнфо российский политолог Андрей Епифанцев.

Интервью ряда политических экспертов и деятелей для журналистов Армении и Азербайджана проходят в рамках проекта Исследовательского центра "Регион" (Армения) и Института мира и демократии (Азербайджан) "Альтернативная информация в армяно- азербайджанском диалоге".

"У Азербайджана есть возможность выиграть войну с армянами только при блицкриге, а он невозможен. При затягивании боевых действий на срок более 5-7 дней, для Баку возрастает фактор "трубы" - страны, сидящие на ней с другого конца и получающие от Баку нефть и газ, заставят его прекратить войну из чувства опасности этой войны для себя. Поэтому большой войны не будет. Другое дело, что для Еревана затягивание статус- кво, а, следовательно, блокады, экономических проблем и т.д.  будет неминуемо вести к увеличению разрыва в экономических потенциалах до очень больших величин. Нельзя исключать, что через 10-15 лет этот разрыв будет настолько велик, что возможность блицкрига у Баку все же появится. Если это произойдет, Азербайджан не будет колебаться ни минуты", - заметил он.

При этом, Епифанцев отметил, что теоретически изменение формата переговорного процесса вокруг НКК в ближайшем будущем вполне возможно. По его мнению, существует четыре варианта разворачивания событий. В их числе продолжение существующей сегодня неэффективной политики бесполезных переговоров и повышающейся возможности кратковременного "случайного" конфликта, развязанного со стороны Баку. Вторым вариантом является отказ от продолжения переговоров в виду неготовности сторон и замораживание ситуации еще лет на 10 с получением международных гарантий в плане невозобновления военных действий. Третьим вариантом является продолжение вялотекущих переговоров параллельно с активным воздействием на общества Армении и Азербайджана в попытке подтолкнуть их к готовности к компромиссу. "И, наконец, четвертым - создание международной коалиции для принуждения Баку и Еревана к компромиссу по формуле, разработанной международным сообществом. При этом, шансов на подписание даже рамочного соглашения по Карабаху сейчас нет", - подытожил Епифанцев.

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