The Levent

In this week's Monday Commentary, Dr. Dennis Sammut discusses the impact of the US-Iran war on the Arab states of the Gulf. He argues that the crises is a test of their resilience, and that change is inevitable. "On 28 February, Donald Trump connived with Israel to attack Iran, thinking that the US military strength will easily sweep away the Islamic Republic. He did so without seeking the views of experts within the American bureaucracy, getting the necessary congressional and cross-party support, and importantly without consulting with his allies in the region, in NATO, and beyond. The result has been a terrible and costly failure. The Islamic Republic has survived, despite loosing its supreme leader and top officials, and is even emboldened. The limits of US military power has been exposed, and China and others are watching carefully. Allies are distancing themselves from the US, and the cost for global and American economy, has been huge." "But the harshest costs of Trump’s miscalculation is being paid by the Arab states, on and around the Arabian peninsula. Over the last five decades the GCC countries have largely bought themselves out of any problems which they faced. Three of them at least – Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE, have the stamina to do so again if necessary. But the question remains, will it be enough this time?" The world must be prepared for a changing region. Europe in particular needs to be able to deal with the new reality, and to do this with an open mind. In March of this year I wrote that by attacking Iran, Trump had opened “pandora’s box”. That has definitely been the case for the US. Others however may take heart from the saying that “from every crises, an opportunity arises”. (click the image to read the Monday Commentary in full)

Saudi Arabia has closed a critical oil pipeline after it was attacked by drones launched from Iraq, as conflict in the Middle East widens. Iraq said it had fired a military commander and launched an investigation after admitting the drone attack on its neighbour's East-West pipeline had originated in one of its provinces bordering Iran. The 1,200km (745 mile) pipeline has helped Saudi Arabia - the world's largest crude oil exporter - bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The incident comes amid a major advance by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, putting more pressure on global oil shipping routes as the US-Iran war stretches into its seventh month. Riyadh on Friday said it had shut the pipeline as a precaution, as satellite images of scorched ground and smoke near the site emerged. The foreign ministry said the attack resulted in some injuries and damage, which was still being assessed. The pipeline has been moving 4% to 5% of global oil supply, news agency Reuters has reported, citing ship tracking companies and analysts. Saudi Arabia has chosen not to retaliate at this stage, its foreign ministry says, following a call from Iraq's prime minister. It said the kingdom would "support the efforts of the Iraqi government" to "prevent attacks" launched from the country against neighbouring states. "The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia affirms that it reserves its right to take all necessary measures to safeguard its sovereignty and security, protect its facilities, and ensure the safety of its citizens and residents," the statement added. The Iraqi prime minister's office in its own statement said the operations commander in the Maysan governorate - a province which borders Iran - had been removed from his post following confirmation the drone attack had been launched from that region. (Click image to read more).