Armenia and Azerbaijan are on the way to peace, but the process is far from complete or irreversible.
The long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which had been going on for three decades, appears to be coming to an end. After a short war which left many dead or injured, and a military operation which saw hundreds of thousands of Armenians leaving Azerbaijani territory, hundreds of thousands of displaced Azerbaijanis could start returning home. The sides engaged with discussions, first with mediators, and later, more successfully, alone. In March they agreed the text of a peace agreement. On 8 August, they initialed the agreement in Washington, in the presence of US President Donald Trump. The agreement has as yet to be signed. The meeting with Trump at the White House in August, was widely hailed as historic. It was. Not least because it tied Trump, the US, and the entire western world, to the peace process, and to the future of the South Caucasus. It was a game changer, with the potential of changing the reality on the ground. But now the hard work must start.
Four reports that set out a vision until 2040
Throughout this year I have been involved in a process entitled “Thematic Groups for a new Armenian-Azerbaijani Dialogue”. On 4 November, after numerous meetings in person, and online, these groups published four reports dealing with (1) Peace and Security; (2) Regional Connectivity; (3) Good governance; and (4) Environment. Forty-two Armenians and Azerbaijanis co-authored the four reports, of which eighteen were women. The process has not been easy and without problems, but in the end the result is impressive. As someone who has followed Armenian-Azerbaijani issues for three decades, I had at times to pinch myself to make sure I was not dreaming, as Armenian and Azerbaijanis reached out to each other, and discussed soberly, but enthusiastically, how they could co-operate together to overcome common problems.
read more on the thematic groups, and their reports here
In parallel we have seen a trickle of Azerbaijanis making high profile visits to Armenia. First was Murad Muradov who in September attended and spoke at the NATO PA Seminar, and the meeting of the Armenian members of the Thematic Groups. Then three civil society representatives made a short visit to Yerevan. A return visit to Baku is expected shortly.
Enemies of peace and spoilers
But we must not be complacent, and think that from now onwards there will not be any problems. The peace process is incomplete and fragile. Below the top ten people on each side, whole populations, brought up with the vision of the other as enemy, have yet to be convinced of the new way forward.
Lurking in the background, and sometimes, not so much in the background, are the enemies of peace, and the spoilers. I divide them in two, because they are of two kinds, and they will need to be dealt differently.
The main enemies are external. Foremost is Russia. Russian policy in the South Caucasus over the last three decades has been built on the premise that Armenia and Azerbaijan were enemies that will never reconcile. Once a Russian “expert” asked me why I spend so much time trying to reconcile Armenians and Azerbaijanis. “We must accept they are going to be fighting for ever”, she told me. Russia does not want peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and will do everything to derail the process. It will use the tools it has in the two countries, and it has many. Details of the recent events around Ramiz Mehdiyev in Azerbaijan are still to emerge, but it is already clear that truth is more grotesque than fiction, and that one way or another, Russia was involved.
In Armenia, Russia sees an opportunity in next years’ parliamentary election. Nothing will set the peace process back as much as an election defeat of Nikol Pashinyan.
The enemies of Aliyev in Azerbaijan, and of Pashinyan in Armenia, have become the enemies of the peace process, and Russia is their patron.
Iran is another external enemy of the peace process, but has less tools in Armenia and Azerbaijan than Russia has.
Fortunately, both Russia and Iran are currently busy with their own problems. This does not make them less dangerous, but it allows Armenia and Azerbaijan the space to manage them.
The spoilers
In both Armenia and Azerbaijan, there are many who can best be categorized as spoilers. Some, do not believe in peace and reconciliation and will do everything to obstruct the process. Others, believe in nothing, but they have for the last thirty years, built their image, and in some cases their fortunes, by their bellicose statements and postures.
However the vast majority of spoilers are well meaning people, in many cases junior officials, who supported the official line which was built on enmity. They will have to make a difficult journey to accept the new reality. The door must not be closed to them.
The European Union in the South Caucasus must catch-up, and step-up, fast
The European Union in the South Caucasus is often doing catch up. It appears to have been taken by surprise by events in Georgia. It was not expecting Armenia-Azerbaijani peace and reconciliation. The European Union in the South Caucasus must catch-up, and step-up, fast.
Easier said than done. The EU is set in its own ways, that were not invented, and developed for the fluid and fast changing situation that exists in the South Caucasus today.
The EU must accept that in the South Caucasus it will have to lead. US involvement will be erratic, and can be counter-productive.
The EU has a EUSR for the South Caucasus. Magdalena Grono is the right person in the right place. She understands the region and it complexity. Her mandate must be strengthened.
She herself has to understand better the limitations of her office, and use better the tools available to her.
The EU has led in Armenia-Azerbaijan issues in one sector since 2010, namely in civil society programmes, such as EPNK and EU4Peace. However, increasingly, these programmes have become more and more laden with bureaucracy and inflexibility. A new approach is needed.
But the EU does not have the luxury of time. If it wants to support the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan it must do so now.
Armenia and Azerbaijan are on the way to peace, but the process is far from complete or irreversible. There are many enemies of peace, and spoilers, lurking, ready to pounce.
source: Monday Commentary is written every week by Dr Dennis Sammut, Director of LINKS Europe and Managing Editor of commonspace.eu
