Oxford Analytic:

Международный аналитический центр Oxford Analytic опубликовал доклад о ситуации в регионе и о возможных вариантах развития событий в случае военного конфликта.

В докладе отмечается, что неурегулированность нагорно-карабахской проблемы угрожает стабильности на Южном Кавказе. Также подчеркивается, что текущая ситуация может перерасти в военный конфликт, особенно в случае, если в него вмешаются Россия, Турция или Иран.

По мнению аналитиков центра Oxford Analytic, в этом случае конфликта приведет к еще более катастрофическим последствиям, чем <августовская война> в 2008 году между Грузией и Россией.

Эксперты центра полагают, что военный конфликт и усиление напряженности ставят под угрозу маршруты транспортировки энергоносителей, в первую очередь - нефтепровод Баку-Тбилиси-Джейхан.

В докладе отмечается, что в этом случае цены на нефть на мировых рынках резко возрастут. Война будет угрожать воздушному коридору над территорией Азербайджана, подчеркивает Oxford Analytic.

Также аналитики центра предупреждают: в конфликт может вмешаться Россия, которая стремится усилить влияние в регионе. И, таким образом, Грузия может оказаться в еще большей изоляции.

 

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