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Цены на нефть на азиатских рынках падают в результате переизбытка и нестабильности рынков

3 January 2019

В четверг (3 января) на азиатских рынках на 1-2 процента упали цены на нефть на фоне нестабильности на валютном и фондовом рынках, а также на фоне опасений, что замедление экономического роста в 2019 году приведет к сокращению спроса на топливо, так же на фоне растущих поставок нефти.

Ожидается, что ведущий экспортер Саудовская Аравия уменьшит февральские цены на более тяжелые сорта нефти, продаваемые в Азию, до 50 центов за баррель из-за более слабых запасов мазута, говорится в сообщении Reuters.

В конце 2018 года добыча нефти в США достигла рекордных 11,7 миллионов баррелей в сутки, что сделало Америку крупнейшим в мире производителем нефти.

Российская добыча в 2018 году достигла рекордного уровня в 11 миллионов баррелей в сутки.

Поставки из Ирака, производителя номер два в Организации стран-экспортеров нефти (ОПЕК), также выросли: экспорт в декабре составил 3,73 млн. баррелей в сутки по сравнению с 3,37 млн. баррелей в сутки в ноябре.

Снижение цен на нефть окажет негативное влияние на экономику Азербайджана, считает Вугар Байрамов, директор Центра экономического и социального развития, ведущего аналитического центра Баку. Низкая цена на нефть усиливает давление на валютный рынок Азербайджана и негативно влияет на экономику: «Психологические эффекты связаны с мировым рынком нефти, снижение цены на нефть оказывает давление на манат, национальную валюту Азербайджана», - сказал эксперт. «Побочные эффекты также связаны с ценами на нефть. Из-за снижения цены на нефть доходы от экспорта страны сократились, а более медленные расходы правительства и домашних хозяйств негативно влияют на услуги, банковский и другие сектора».

Байрамов добавил:

"Несмотря на то, что прогнозируемое значение на протяжении большей части года сильно колеблется, недавнее снижение цены на нефть вновь ставит под сомнение будущее товара. Учитывая зависимость государственного бюджета Азербайджана на 2019 год от нефти - где 60,0% доходов напрямую поступает из нефтяного сектора, что делает страну более уязвимой к колебаниям цен на нефть".

Наибольший рост государственных доходов в ненефтяном секторе наблюдается в размере доходов, собранных за счет акцизов, в то время как наибольшее снижение связано с подоходными налогами, что отражает новые поправки к Налоговому кодексу.

Расходы государственного бюджета в 2019 году увеличатся на 7,3%, при этом наиболее значительный рост наблюдается в строительном секторе. При рассмотрении бюджета ГНФАР (Государственного нефтяного фонда) прослеживается четкая тенденция все большего выделения средств в государственный бюджет. Как и ожидалось, были внесены новые поправки в бюджетные правила, чтобы сделать его более гибким, однако эффективность этих изменений все еще неясна в свете цен на нефть».

источник: commonspace.eu

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