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Международная кризисная группа публикует новый доклад по Карабаху.

Международная кризисная группа публикует новый доклад по Карабаху.

27 September 2013

Необходимо более мощное международное участие, чтобы предотвратить ужасный конфликт между Арменией и Азербайджаном от серьезной эскалации в момент внутренней политической напряженности в обоих странах.

В своей последней публикации, "Армения и Азербайджан: Сезон Рисков", Международная кризисная группа рассматривает возможные сценарии развития конфликта, который может взорваться в любой момент. Поскольку в 2011 году были прерваны мирные переговоры по Нагорному-Карабаху - анклав Азербайджана отделенный и оккупированный армянскими силами в ходе боевых действий, которые сопровождали распад Советского Союза - закупки вооружений и военная риторика набирают силу с обеих сторон. В такой напряженной ситуации  которая усугубляется внутриполитической конкуренцией, наибольшую опасность представляет неожиданная война.

Основные выводы и рекомендации брифинга:

• С 2011 года обе стороны значительно увеличили свои военные бюджеты и разработали подробные планы действий в случае войны. Существует реальный риск того, что просчеты, балансирование на грани войны или более частые стычки в прифронтовых районах может привести к вспышке полномасштабных боевых действий, втянув в себя некоторые или все региональные державы: Россия, Турция и Иран.

• Ближайшие месяцы предлагают особые вызовы, так как обе страны испытывают внутреннюю политическую напряженность. В Армении оппозиционные группы планируют осенние протесты. В Азербайджане правительство опасается беспорядков после президентских выборов в октябре - практически не вызывает сомнений, что победу на них одержит действующий президент. Внутреннее давление в обеих странах может ограничить их усилия по восстановлению и активизации посреднического процесса или введения прямых переговоров.

• Бдительность со стороны международных субъектов, в особенности со стороны посредников Организации по безопасности и сотрудничеству в Европе (ОБСЕ), а именно - России, США и Франции, сопредседателей  "Минской группы", - а также со стороны ЕС, необходимо для предотвращения эскалации. Они должны указать обеим сторонам на риск просчетов и огромных затрат в случае возвращения к открытым военным действиям. Россия, как влиятельный игрок в этом конфликте, должна более решительно работать по соглашению и прекращению поставок оружия для обеих сторон.

• Горячая линия в случае кризиса между Ереваном и Баку должна быть восстановлена, чтобы уменьшить шансы военной эскалации.

"Волнения в доме могут подтолкнуть лидеров на отвлечение внимания за счет повышения военной напряженности или осуществление рискованных попыток извлечения выгоды из неприятностей своего противника", - заявил Лоуренс Скотт Шитс, директор проекта Кризисная Группа по Южному Кавказу. "Обе стороны действуют провокационно".

"Срочно необходимы непосредственные усилия со стороны посредников и других сторонников мирного процесса", говорит Пол Куинн-Джадж, Директор программ Кризисной Группы по Европе и Центральной Азии. "Они должны начать говорить о рисках Баку и Еревану прямо в лицо. Затем, обе страны нужно усадить за стол переговоров, прежде чем кто-то решит, что пришло время использовать свое дорогое новое оружие".

Вы можете прочитать полный текст публикации на английском языке здесь

Источник: International Crisis Group.

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