Diplomacy

For decades, Russia has tried to protect its interests in the South Caucasus following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. But Russia had nothing to offer to the countries of the region, be it for their economic and political challenges, or even more importantly for the process of restoring peace in the region after it slid into conflict at the end of the Soviet era. There was however one thing that it could do, and that was to spoil any efforts for peace and reconciliation, if these efforts did not originate and were managed by Russia itself. This way it could maintain it primordial position in the region, and as much as possible, keep everyone else out, whilst often presenting itself as an exemplary peacemaker. This grotesque situation has played itself out in front of everyone’s eyes since 1992. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia have for most of the time had no choice but to play along with the Russian masquerade, and the international community, most of the time distracted by other issues, generally played along, being content to be seen offering some kind of balance to Russian posturing. Russia never had, and certainly does not have now, any interest in working genuinely with international partners to support peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. If a dialogue with Russia is necessary so that Russia will not be a spoiler, than that dialogue is futile because Russian objectives are not the same as those of the West. Russia’s gloating when Azerbaijani president Aliyev failed to turn up for a crucial summit in Granada last week is a case in point. We are now already seeing Russian rhetoric increase as preparations for the long-expected meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan, with Michel, scheduled for later this month, intensify. Russian pressure on Armenia and Azerbaijan ahead of the Brussels meeting is also increasing both overtly and covertly. There is an argument that Armenia and Azerbaijan simply cannot afford to be seen agreeing with each other, under the auspices of Brussels, without the Russians being part of the story. Thus there has been in recent weeks some frantic discussions about how that could be done, including by having the final lap of any discussions in Tbilisi, without any outside mediators. Such ideas have also found favour in Tehran and Ankara. A wonderful idea, but one that has many flaws. Any agreement will need to be somehow underpinned by some kind of international patronage. And “ownership” will also determine who is going to pick up the bill for post-conflict reconstruction and other costs of erasing the scars of the conflict from the region, including for example demining. Still, Tbilisi may be a venue that more or less can be acceptable to both the Russians as well as to the Europeans and the Americans. In the end, the location of the symbolic finishing line must not turn out to be the most important issue. All focus, and all efforts must be concentrated on getting Armenia and Azerbaijan to agree to finally put an end to this long painful episode in their history, that has taken the lives of tens of thousands, displaced hundreds of thousands and costed billions. And that would be just the end of the beginning because translating a written agreement into concrete actions that would ensure lasting and durable peace will be a much longer and more difficult endeavour.

It has been planned for many months, and it took place for the first time after a gap of eight years, but the meeting of the foreign ministers of the six GCC countries and the 27 EU member states when it eventually took place yesterday in Muscat, capital of Oman, was inevitably overshadowed by the deepening crisis in the Middle  East triggered by Saturday's attack by Hamas on Southern Israel. Addressing the issue, whilst speaking to the media at the end of the meeting, EU High Representative Josep Borrell stated that in the meeting, the two sides agreed that "the priority is to cease violence and to prevent further regional escalation. It is of utmost importance to ensure the release of hostages, as well as the protection of civilians at all times and by all parties."  commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that it is good that after years of neglect, the EU is finally giving relations with the Gulf Co-operation Council countries the importance that they deserve. The final declaration from the Muscat meeting is ambitious and wide ranging. It needs to be seen how the EU proposes to take it forward, and what is the mechanism it will put in place to ensure that it does not remain merely a piece of paper. The final declaration announces the holding of an EU-GCC summit of Heads of State and Government but gives no details. Whilst this summit will need to be well prepared, the aim should be to have it as soon as possible. But in the meantime the crisis in Middle East will remain the topic of the day for a while, and it is good that, even if by co-incidence of timing, the EU and the GCC countries could co-ordinate their positions in such a sensitive time.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Gutteres, on Monday, 9 October, made a passionate call for a return to negotiations between the sides in the Middle East, and said that "only a negotiated peace that fulfills the legitimate national aspirations of Palestinians and Israelis, together with their security alike – the long-held vision of a two-State solution, in line with United Nations resolutions, international law and previous agreements – can bring long-term stability to the people of this land and the wider Middle East region." Gutteres was speaking as the most serious crisis in the middle East in half a century unfolded following the Saturday morning raids by Hamas militants on towns and settlements in the south of Israel. Whilst unequivocally condemning the attacks, Gutteres said that "this most recent violence does not come in a vacuum. The reality is that it grows out of a long-standing conflict, with a 56-year long occupation and no political end in sight." "It’s time to end this vicious circle of bloodshed, hatred and polarization", the UN Secretary General said in the press briefing, which he held in New York following a meeting with other senior UN officials. Clearly, the UN sees the crisis as one of the most significant in recent years and is brazing itself for a humanitarian catastrophy as Israel launches a large scale punitive action in Gaza with the aim of eradicating completely Hamas, and its political and military capacity. In his statement, Gutteres said that "Civilians must be respected and protected at all times".

The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, and the Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz met in Granada with Nikol Pashinyan, Prime Minister of Armenia. The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, and the Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz underlined their unwavering support to the independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of the borders of Armenia. They also expressed their support to the strengthening of EU-Armenia relations, in all its dimensions, based on the needs of the Republic of Armenia. They agreed on the need to provide additional humanitarian assistance to Armenia as it faces the consequences of the recent mass displacement of Karabakh Armenians. They stressed that these refugees must be free to exercise their right to return to their homes and their places of living, without any conditions, with international monitoring, and with due respect for their history, culture and for human rights. They remain committed to all efforts directed towards the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, based on mutual recognition of sovereignty, inviolability of borders and territorial integrity of Armenia (29.800 km2) and Azerbaijan (86.600 km2), as mentioned in President Michel’s statements of 14 May and 15 July 2023. They called for the strict adherence to the principle of non-use of force and threat of use of force. They stressed the urgent need to work towards border delimitation based on the most recent USSR General Staff maps that have been provided to the sides, which should also be a basis for distancing of forces, and for finalizing the peace treaty and addressing all humanitarian issues. They called for greater regional cooperation and for the re-opening of all borders, including the border between Armenia and Türkiye, as well as for the opening of regional connectivity links based on full respect of countries’ sovereignty and jurisdiction, as well as on the principles of equality and reciprocity. The European leaders called on Armenia and Azerbaijan to release all detainees, and to cooperate to address the fate of missing persons and to facilitate demining work.

For weeks, expectations were built up that a summit between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, hosted by European Council president, Charles Michel, French President Emanuel Macron and German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, scheduled on the margins of the meeting of the European Political Community in Granada, Spain on 5 October, will give a stimulus to the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. Just a day before, however, Azerbaijan announced that President Ilham Aliyev will not attend. What could have been agreed in Granada? Speaking in the Armenian parliament on 4 October, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan outlined the points of a document that he said he had hoped could have been signed in Granada the next day had the Azerbaijani leader not cancelled his visit, but which he still felt could be signed at an opportune moment. Pashinyan outlined the three principles as: 1. Armenia and Azerbaijan recognize each other’s territorial integrity, based on the understanding that Armenia territory is 29800 square km while Azerbaijan territory is 86600 square km; 2. The Alma Ata declaration should be the political basis for border delimitation and later demarcation. It is important that before delimitation is made, agreement is reached on which maps delimitation and demarcation will be based on. This should be implemented based on the maps of 1975, but in principle, we may be flexible on this;   3. Restoration of communications of the region should take place based on the principles of sovereignty, laws, equality, and reciprocity of the countries.  

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, speaking at prime minister's question time in the Armenian parliament on Wednesday (4 October), said that a document now exists which he was ready to sign, that was consistent with the logic of peace and stability in the region. Pashinyan said that he does not want to create a false impression that the document is against the interests of Azerbaijan and completely compatible with the interests of Armenia. "Armenia hopes that the conceptual document will be signed at an opportune moment. I am ready to sign it," he said. Earlier, the prime minister said that he had hoped that the document could have been signed in Granada on the margins of the European Political Community Summit on Thursday (5 October). It now transpires however that Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev has refused to attend the summit. Pashinyan said he will attend the summit nonetheless. commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that it is clear that there is now broad agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan on at least a general document, which the Armenian prime minister called a "Conceptual Document", which may be the basis for a future, more comprehensive peace treaty. But all the sides are aware of broader sensitivities, and it seems that Russian pressure on Aliyev made him miss an important opportunity to take the peace process forward by signing the document in Granada this week. This is a highly risky gamble since circumstances can change very fast. One therefore hopes that the "opportune moment" mentioned by prime minister Pashinyan will come within days, not weeks.