Geostrategic Europe

A conference organised in The Hague by LINKS Europe Foundation brought together experts and activists from the South Caucasus, the European Union and beyond to discuss the current state of political transition in the region. The gathering gave particular attention to the European Union's evolving role in the region amidst rapidly changing domestic and regional dynamics as well as Türkiye's influence as a regional power.

Last week, LINKS Europe organised a major conference in the Hague with the theme, “The South Caucasus, again in transition”. The event brought together experts, policy practitioners, and political voices from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to discuss the regional dynamics in the South Caucasus and the role of the European Union and Türkiye in the region.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa travelled to Uzbekistan to participate in a landmark EU–Central Asia summit. Held on 3–4 April, the event brings together EU leaders with the heads of state and government of the five Central Asian republics. Alongsidei the host, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the summit was also attended by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, and Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov.

US President Donald Trump lashed out at the leaders of both warring parties in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, expressing frustration as efforts to kick-start ceasefire talks remain deadlocked. Trump is trying to broker a ceasefire between Ukraine and its Russian invader, and has been pushing Zelensky to sign an agreement to give US firms exclusive access to Ukrainian rare earth minerals.

Accession to the EU is incompatible with Armenia’s continued membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, a Russian-led trade bloc that gives it tariff-free access to Russia’s vast market, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksei Overchuk. Armenia would also have to pay much more for Russian energy resources and food, Overchuk said. Last week, the Armenian Parliament adopted a bill calling for the government to seek accession to the EU, representing a significant shift in Armenia’s foreign policy perspective away from its long-time ally Russia.

On 27 March 2025, the Foreign Ministers of the Republic of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, the Republic of Uzbekistan, the Deputy Foreign Ministers of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic, as well as the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas held their 20th European Union-Central Asia Ministerial meeting in Ashgabat in Turkmenistan. The ministers discussed the preparations for the organisation of the first EU-Central Asia Summit on 4 April 2025 in Samarkand in Uzbekistan, which will demonstrate their commitment to deepening ties with the EU, at the highest level, materialising closer strategic cooperation, and marking an important step in the intensification of EU-Central Asia relations.

Ukraine’s allies from across Europe gathered for talks in Paris on Thursday to discuss how to strengthen Kyiv’s hand and its military as it pushes for a ceasefire with Russia, and to consider proposals to deploy European troops in the country in tandem with any peace deal. French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting the leaders of nearly 30 countries plus NATO and European Union chiefs. The summit comes at a crucial juncture in the war, with intensifying diplomatic efforts to broker ceasefires, driven by pressure from US President Donald Trump  to end the fighting.

Russia and Ukraine agreed Tuesday to halt military strikes in the Black Sea and on energy sites during talks brokered by the United States, which offered as a first concrete incentive to Moscow to ease pressure on agricultural exports. With President Donald Trump pushing for a rapid end to the war that has killed tens of thousands of people, US negotiators shuttled separately over three days in the Saudi capital Riyadh between delegations from Ukraine and Russia.

The evolving dynamics of Russia-USA relations have sent shockwaves through the post-Soviet space, with the South Caucasus emerging as a critical region to observe the fallout. Recent negotiations between the United States and Russia, particularly those aimed at resolving the war in Ukraine, have exposed fault lines in international diplomacy that carry profound lessons for Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The implications of this “rapprochement” are starkly illustrated by Ukraine’s experience, Azerbaijan’s strategic foresight, and Armenia’s persistent miscalculations in relying on external powers for security.