Diplomacy

On 27 October 2022, President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President of the Kyrgyz Republic Sadyr Zhaparov, President of the Republic of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon, President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev and President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedov (represented by Turkmenistan's Deputy Chair of the Cabinet of Ministers) and President of the European Council Charles Michel welcomed the first regional high-level meeting in Astana. A joint statement issued after the historic meeting said that "in an open and friendly atmosphere of mutual respect and trust, the participants summarized the past period of multifaceted and mutually beneficial cooperation between Central Asian states and the EU and reaffirmed their commitment to continue building a strong diversified and forward-looking partnership underpinned by shared values and mutual interests. They reaffirmed their commitment to work together for peace, security, democracy, rule of law and sustainable development in full respect for international law. They expressed continued commitment to uphold the UN Charter, particularly the principles of respect for the independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity of all countries., non-use of force or threat of its use and peaceful settlement of international disputes." In the 30 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between Central Asian States and the EU, interregional cooperation has advanced in many areas and sectors and serves as an example of a multilateral partnership for prosperity and sustainability.

For many years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the emergence of the newly independent successor states, Russian diplomats counselled their western colleagues on the business of dealing with the people of the Caucasus, and their politics. They often described the Caucasians as the "excitable people of the South", who needed a special kind of handling, and only Russians knew how to do it. It was a Soviet version of "orientalism" that still lingers among the current Russian elite. Putin’s handling of the 2nd Karabakh War - and the subsequent steps he took to establish the post-war order in the region - was very much in this vein. Russia rushed troops to Karabakh to keep the peace, and Russia was to be involved at every stage and in every corner of building a post-war order. There was no space left for others to contribute to this process, except for some general reference to a UN role in providing humanitarian aid. Well content that the excitable people of the South had been calmed down, President Putin turned his attention to other matters – namely what for him were the less excitable, but no less irritable people on the western frontier, the Ukrainians.

In a move likely to create further animosity between Kyiv and Moscow, on Tuesday (18 October), the Ukrainian parliament, known as the Verkhovna Rada, recognised the independence of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, declaring it 'temporarily occupied by Russia'. The Rada also condemned the 'commission of genocide against the Chechen people'. The resolution reads: ‘We declare the recognition of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria as temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation as a result of armed aggression committed in violation of the UN Charter’. The Ukrainian parliament also called on UN member states and international organisations to carry out an independent and impartial investigation into purported crimes committed in Chechnya over the last three decades, to 'ensure that the guilty are brought to justice'. Out of 351 members present, 287 voted for, and 0 voted against or abstained. The remaining 64 did not vote. Chechens have been playing a prominent role in the fighting in Ukrainian, with groups supporting either the Ukrainian government or Moscow.

An event on the other side of the world that started on Sunday has huge global importance and will define international politics for decades to come. The 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) is perhaps not the most important ever in terms of its impact within China itself, but when it comes to China’s role in the world it certainly is. This is not only because China is today stronger than it has ever been in modern times, but also because the congress gives the seal of approval to a Chinese global posture that is assertive, ambitious and with as yet an undefined end-game. That end-game is being defined by Xi Jinping, who during this congress is expected to be confirmed in his post as  Party leader for an unprecedented third term. President Xi has been making speeches both at the main session of the Congress and at side events. This morning he told a meeting of Communist activists on the fringe of the main event, that Chinese people should stay united as "a piece of hard steel" under the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and “pull together with one mind to power the giant ship of national rejuvenation through the wind and waves to reach its destination.” In a more formal speech to the Congress plenum a day before Xi had given an indication of what that destination is: “Incomparable glory’ awaits China on world stage”, Xi Jinping told the party congress. By 2049, when the People’s Republic will hold centennial celebrations, China should become a leading power in all aspects, the leader stated So no modesty or lack of ambition here. But what does this mean for the rest of the world?

It is expected that European Union monitors will arrive on the Armenian side of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border before the end of this month. An EU technical assessment mission arrived in Yerevan on Friday (14 October), and EU foreign ministers are expected to discuss the matter and endorse a mandate and a budget for the mission on Monday (17 October). A statement from the European External Action Service on Friday evening stated: Following the request by Armenia, an EU technical assessment mission has today arrived in Yerevan. The task of this mission is to prepare for the deployment of EU monitors to the Armenian side of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border later this month, in line with the agreement reached on the 6 October at the quadrilateral meeting between President Aliyev, Prime Minister Pashinyan, President Macron and President Michel. EU Member States will further discuss at the Foreign Affairs Council on Monday 17 October the proposal of High Representative Josep Borrell to deploy a monitoring mission, which will have as its primary aims contributing to stability and building confidence as well as supporting the work of the border commissions to improve security along the bilateral border.

Russia is worried that the success of European diplomacy in approximating the positions of Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the prospect of a peace agreement before the end of the year, would see it elbowed out of the South Caucasus. Russia may use its presence in Karabakh to throw spokes in the wheel, writes Vasif Huseynov in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. "This situation seriously threatens peace and stability in the South Caucasus. The region would  descend into a catastrophic escalations if the present peace efforts fail, and the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict becomes another theater of the Russia-West confrontation. Baku and Yerevan, having declared their willingness to recognize each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, would suffer the most from such a situation. Hence, both should make efforts to reach a deal with a delicate geopolitical balance", he writes.