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Conflict and Peace

Stories related to violent conflicts, diplomatic tensions, and conflict prevention, mediation and resolution.

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Armenia and Azerbaijan edge closer to a peace deal

Armenia and Azerbaijan edge closer to a peace deal

Armenia and Azerbaijan last week announced they had agreed on the process of demarcation of their border in the Tavush region that will result in the return of four villages that had been under Armenian control since the conflict in the 1990s to Azerbaijan. The agreement is being seen as a milestone event that will greatly contribute to finalising the process leading towards the signing of a peace agreement between the two countries, who have been in conflict for more than three decades. The agreement comes after months of negotiations, and controversy, including some opposition from Armenian residents in the proximity of the four villages. On 19 April, it was announced that the eighth meeting of the Committee on Demarcation and Border Security of the State Border between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan and the State Committee on the Demarcation of the State Border between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia was held under the chairmanship of Armenian Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan and Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafaev. There are of course many small details that will have to be ironed out later, but the fact that the sides have agreed the basic parameters, and especially their re-affirmation that they will "be guided by Alma Ata's 1991 Declaration in the demarcation process" is a huge step forward. No wonder that the international community in the last few days have lined up to congratulate the two sides on their success and to nudge them forward to complete the process of signing a peace agreement between them. Seasoned observers now see the signing of such an agreement as being truly within reach. Of course, there will be those who for one reason or another will not like these developments and will try to spoil the process. Armenia and Azerbaijan must remain focused on overcoming any last obstacles, and on its part, the international community must also remain focused in helping them do so as a priority.
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Pope calls for an end to the spiral of violence in the Middle East

Pope calls for an end to the spiral of violence in the Middle East

Pope Francis made a heartfelt appeal on Sunday (14 April), calling for a stop to any actions that may fuel the "spiral of violence" in the Middle East that risk plunging the region into an even wider war. The Pope's appeal follows last night massive drone and missile attack by Iran against Israel in retribution for the earlier Israeli attack on the Iranian diplomatic mission in Damascus. Most of the drones and missiles were intercepted and destroyed by Israeli, US, UK, Jordanian and other forces. The Pope said he is following with "prayer and concern, even sorrow" the news arriving in recent hours about the worsening situation in Israel following the intervention by Iran. He emphasised that nobody should threaten the existence of others, and that instead all nations should "take the side of peace," helping Israelis and Palestinians to live in two States, side by side, in security. He added, "it is their deep and legitimate desire, and it is their right! Two neighboring States." The Pope renewed his appeal for a ceasefire in Gaza and that the path of negotiation be pursued "with determination." Recalling the suffering of the population in Gaza, "plunged into a humanitarian catastrophe," he called for every effort to alleviate their suffering. He prayed that "the hostages kidnapped months ago be released!"  The Pope concluded: “So much suffering! Let us pray for peace. No more war, no more attacks, no more violence! Yes to dialogue and yes to peace!”

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President Zelensky addresses US Congress

President Zelensky addresses US Congress

The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, on his first foreign visit since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24th February 2022, has addressed the US Congress in person. This followed being welcomed to the White House by US President Joe Biden and the First Lady Dr. Jill Biden, and a wider American-Ukrainian discussion on the ongoing war during which US Vice-President Kamala Harris and Secretary of Defence Lloyd J. Austin III were also present. During his address to the US Congress, President Zelensky delivered a defiant speech in which he said that "against all odds and doom and gloom scenarios, Ukraine did not fall. Ukraine is alive and kicking", adding that his country would never surrender. Referring to other conflicts in Russia's so-called "near abroad", Zelensky said that "this battle cannot be frozen or postponed. It cannot be ignored hoping that the ocean or something else will provide a protection." Zelensky's visit comes amid concerns from Republicans over the cost of American military aid to Ukraine. His address can be seen in large part as an attempt to assuage those worries and make the case for long-term American support for Ukraine's military. He notably said that "Your money is not charity, it's an investment in the global security and democracy that we handle in the most responsible way."
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EU continues to develop its tools in support of its objective to contribute to peace in the South Caucasus.

EU continues to develop its tools in support of its objective to contribute to peace in the South Caucasus.

The European Union continues to develop its tools in support of its objective to contribute to peace and security in the South Caucasus.  On Monday (19 December), the EU Monitoring Capacity in Armenia (EUMCAP), launched in October, completed its mandate. Based on the agreement between the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan, European Council and France, the EUMCAP was deployed on 20 October along the Armenian side of the international border with Azerbaijan with the objective of monitoring, analysing and reporting on the situation on the ground. EU leaders, meeting in Brussels last week, assessed the wotk of the mission and the way forward. A statement by the European External Action Service on Monday stated that, "the Council – in agreement with Armenia’s authorities - decided that the existing EU Monitoring Mission in Georgia (EUMM Georgia) will deploy a transitional planning assistance team in Armenia to enhance the EU’s awareness of the security situation, and contribute to the planning and preparation of a possible civilian CSDP mission in the country. The transitional planning assistance team is also expected to support the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, in the EU-facilitated normalisation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan."
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Opinion
Opinion: 2022 started promising from the perspective of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan but prospects for 2023 are bleak

Opinion: 2022 started promising from the perspective of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan but prospects for 2023 are bleak

Russia's attempts to show Armenia and Azerbaijan its red lines during the summit in Sochi on 31 October disrupted a positive moment in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations that had been ongoing throughout 2022. A deterioration in Azerbaijan-Iran relations has further hightened tensions in the region. "One can foresee that new escalations and hostilities will be imminent, if the peace efforts fail to deliver tangible outcomes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and if some external actors continue to fuel the tensions in the region", writes Vasif Huseynov in this op-ed for commonspace.eu.
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Analysis
Under the Pall of War: Implications of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine for Peace Processes in the South Caucasus

Under the Pall of War: Implications of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine for Peace Processes in the South Caucasus

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 shattered Europe’s security architecture, with far-reaching and unpredictable implications for conflicts in neighbouring regions where Russia plays a role. This discussion paper, just published by Conciliation Resources, focuses on the impacts of war in Ukraine on the peace processes of the South Caucasus, a region fractured by protracted conflicts dating back to the 1990s.