Conflict and Peace

"Despite hopes, Armenia and Azerbaijan failed to sign a peace agreement by the end of 2023", writes Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. "However, since the text of the document seems to be, by and large, already agreed, there are hopes that an agreement may be signed in the first half of 2024. Otherwise, the EU and US election cycles in the Summer and Autumn of 2024 may push the South Caucasus out of the West's radar. If this happens, Russia may resume its leading role as a negotiation platform between Armenia and Azerbaijan, pushing the two sides to sign a peace agreement in Moscow by the end of 2024", he argues. 

For many months formal talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in stagnation, writes Samir Hajizada in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. Then on 7 December, the two countries surprised the international community with a joint statement re-affirming commitment to the peace process and announcing confidence-building measures. A number of recent developments allow us to assume that the bilateral discussion format is finally gaining a real momentum. Thus, on December 14, the Government of Armenia has approved the regulations for the functioning of the delimitation commission- while a similar move is expected from Baku in the coming days. Moreover, on the same day Azerbaijani MFA issued a statement that normalisation of relations with Armenia seems realistic, and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan during his visit to Azerbaijan stated that peace between the countries is very close. The opportunities for a long-awaited breakthrough suddenly started to look bright at the end of the grim 2023.

In a vote in the United Nations General Assembly 153 member nations supported a call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Only 10 countries voted against it and 33 abstained. The vote took place during an emergency special session of the assembly titled “Protection of Civilians and Upholding Legal and Humanitarian Obligations.” It was called last week by the representatives of Egypt and Mauritania, in their capacities as chair of the Arab Group and chair of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation respectively, after the US on Friday vetoed a Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire. The draft of the text of the resolution adopted by the General Assembly on Tuesday, and seen by Arab News, closely reflected the vetoed Security Council resolution. It expresses “grave concern over the catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip and the suffering of the Palestinian civilian population, and (emphasizes) that the Palestinian and Israeli civilian populations must be protected in accordance with international humanitarian law.” It calls for “an immediate humanitarian ceasefire” as well as the “immediate and unconditional release of all hostages.” The vote once more exposed divisions in the position of EU member states, with Austria and Czechia voting against the resolution, whilst Bulgaria, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Romania, and Slovakia abstained. All other EU members voted in favour.

The foreign ministers of the 27 EU member-states, meeting in the framework of the Foreign Affairs Council, on Monday (11 December) agreed to increase the size of the EU Mission in Armenia from 138 to 209. This was announced by the High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Josep Borrell in a briefing after the session of the Council in Brussels. Borrell told journalists, "You know that we are currently working on strengthening our relations with Armenia. I see that Armenia clearly sees the benefits of increasing cooperation with us, and we are ready to respond positively." Borrell referred to the ongoing efforts to normalise Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, stating:  "We believe that there is a historic chance to achieve peace in the region. It is an opportunity. We are committed to continue our support to these efforts – by working together with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The fact that we have decided to increase by such an important number our staff on this mission shows our clear commitment to the stability in the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan and [is] an important contribution to the peace efforts." The Foreign Affairs Council also held an informal exchange of views with the Armenian Foreign Minister, Ararat Mirzoyan at the start of its proceedings. During the day, Borrell also held a meeting with the Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan, Jeyhun Bayramov. Azerbaijan has criticised the fact that only the Armenian Foreign Minister was invited to exchange views with the Foreign Affairs Council, and that no similar invitation was extended to his Azerbaijani counterpart.

The co-rapporteurs of the Joint Armenian-Azerbaijani Liaison Group on Confidence-building measures in support of lasting peace in the South Caucasus have issued a statement welcoming the 7 December statement of the governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan. They say that the Group discussed the statement which they consider a significant step in the process of normalization of bilateral relations and resumption of negotiations. The statement says, "our Joint Liaison Group has been working since the summer of 2021 to develop ideas on confidence-building measures, and to muster political and popular support for their implementation. Our report of April 2022: “The South Caucasus from war to peace: thirty measures between now and 2030” proposes concrete measures that can be implemented in the short, medium, and long term, not only to achieve peace, but also to subsequently consolidate it. Much has happened since this report was published, and some of the proposals have been overtaken by events, but the need to build trust and confidence remains high.   We join the call on the international community to support the efforts of Armenia and Azerbaijan that will contribute to building mutual trust between two countries and will positively impact the entire South Caucasus region. We call on Armenians and Azerbaijanis to recognise the significance of this moment and support efforts to achieve lasting peace in the region."

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently presented the "Crossroads of Peace" initiative at the Tbilisi Silk Road Forum held at the end of October. "Pashinyan's map depicts rehabilitated existing roads and logistical connections, adding new pathways. His message was clear: envisioning a post-conflict era for Azerbaijan and Armenia, and at the same time reaching out to Turkey. The map symbolized the potential regional landscape after the conflict, and was aimed at both the Armenian public and external actors", writes Ramazan Samadov in this op-ed for commonspace.eu "The idea itself looks attractive, however for the plan to materialize into negotiations, Pashinyan would need to offer something more substantial to Azerbaijan and Turkey – something that they genuinely need", he adds. Central is the issue of the Zangezur corridor. "The revival of discussions between Azerbaijan and Armenia on the transit regime is crucial for both tactical and regional dynamics. Currently, the corridor between Georgia and Azerbaijan operates under monopolistic conditions.   Introducing an alternative becomes strategic, offering leverage in the negotiation process. In essence, Pashinyan's "Crossroads of Peace" map presents a compelling pitch. The Azerbaijani statement about finding an alternative to Zangezur through Iran underscores the corridor's significance. Even statements of waning interest in the Zangezur corridor do not diminish its importance. If Armenia proposes a meaningful transit arrangement for Azerbaijani transits through its territory, Azerbaijan's interest in the corridor is likely to reignite", Samadov says.